Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

And there would be no shame in admitting that. But they feel the need to come up with these explanations that actually make them look like incompetent fools. A bit like Visma supposedly finding the problem behind Uijtdebroeks bad performances, after searching for a year, to be adjusting his saddle height. Like, seriously, if that IS in fact what went wrong, and you didn't check/prevent this, are we dealing with amateurs?

Isn’t it a combination of factors in case of Uijtdebroeks? Saddle height, core strength

 

[Berniece]

Well, if they want to surprise Pogacar and really put him through the wringer, it could be part of a scenario if they are willing to take a gamble (which they will need to do either way if they want to win), in case they are able to completely explode the race before that. Rosier and Desnié are at 60 and 47km before the finish, so within "solo" territory. That means after already 192 and 205km. In theory that should be enough to already make the race so hard that there are not many domestiques left on Desnié. If Evenepoel is solo on the section between Desnié and Redoute, and by that time the peloton is shattered with only few favorites left in a group with Pogacar and perhaps McNulty, they will all be looking at McNulty to do the work, just like they were looking at Van Wilder in Amstel. But unlike Van Wilder in Amstel, who virtually lost no time to Pogacar, i can't see McNulty losing no time to Evenepoel on an 11km slightly downhill section. Then Pog will try to go solo over Redoute and needs to bridge maybe 45 seconds. With two other ~10km flat sections between Redoute and Liège, Pog would need to be in much better shape than Amstel to close the gap, and if he manages, he would surely also have dug deep.

If Evenepoel waits for Pog to attack on Redoute, he will be on the backfoot playing catch up. He would then either still need Van Wilder to pace him until Forges or cooperation from other favorites. Then leave Pog dangling before reeling him in, but then he would once again need to rely on his sprint in the end, most likely.

I agree with everything you wrote, I just don’t see Pogacar not responding to Evenepoel if he attacks from so far out. He’ll probably just join the attack and take turns with him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with everything you wrote, I just don’t see Pogacar not responding to Evenepoel if he attacks from so far out. He’ll probably just join the attack and take turns with him.

Which is more in Evenepoel's favor than in Pogacar's, especially if Pogacar is actually starting to feel some fatigue from his entire spring season. And certainly compared to the alternative, the closer to the line, the less chance of either following Pogacar or dropping Pogacar.

In fact, he might not even need to be solo before Redoute, whoever is with him will catch a lot more wind and suffer after a hard race in Evenepoel's wheel.

 

[Berniece]

Which is more in Evenepoel's favor than in Pogacar's, especially if Pogacar is actually starting to feel some fatigue from his entire spring season. And certainly compared to the alternative, the closer to the line, the less chance of either following Pogacar or dropping Pogacar.

Then the team needs to go hard from Vielsalm to the top of Cote Desnie, with an attack from Evenepoel right after the climb. They need to control the race for 57km's.

Do you remember when they really started to go at it in LBL 2023? They also made the race very hard before Evenepoel launched, but I can't remember when they actually started their campaign of going hard on every climb.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Then the team needs to go hard from Vielsalm to the top of Cote Desnie, with an attack from Evenepoel right after the climb. They need to control the race for 57km's.

Do you remember when they really started to go at it in LBL 2023? They also made the race very hard before Evenepoel launched, but I can't remember when they actually started their campaign of going hard on every climb.

I'm not sure that is necessary. Somewhere between Wanne and Haute Levée could be enough to cut everybody's legs off. There may still be people there when he attacks, but if they are dead, it doesn't matter. Look at the size of the peloton before Alaphilippe attacked in Amstel and 5km later. They don't necessarily have to have dropped before. I'm thinking of his 2022 San Sebastian win. Even if Pogacar is with him it will be a 1v1 which will be more in his favor than in case it is a 1v1 starting after Redoute. Together they can distance the others. Pog will do his share of the work because he'll want to prove Amstel was a fluke.

I'm not saying this is a sure path to victory, but i think it might give him more of an edge compared to waiting for Pog to drop everybody on Redoute.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Isn’t it a combination of factors in case of Uijtdebroeks? Saddle height, core strength

He had already been working on his core strength and there was no improvement as the issue returned in his first WT race. Next explanation was saddle height. After a year of analysing the problem, if this is what caused it, i mean... that's like taking your car to the shop because it doesn't run anymore, and after having replaced the entire engine, checking to see if there is still gas in the tank.

 

[Berniece]

I'm not sure that is necessary. Somewhere between Wanne and Haute Levée could be enough to cut everybody's legs off. There may still be people there when he attacks, but if they are dead, it doesn't matter. Look at the size of the peloton before Alaphilippe attacked in Amstel and 5km later. They don't necessarily have to have dropped before. I'm thinking of his 2022 San Sebastian win. Even if Pogacar is with him it will be a 1v1 which will be more in his favor than in case it is a 1v1 starting after Redoute. Together they can distance the others. Pog will do his share of the work because he'll want to prove Amstel was a fluke.

I'm not saying this is a sure path to victory, but i think it might give him more of an edge compared to waiting for Pog to drop everybody on Redoute.

I agree, but doubt SOQ will do this. They probably also want to wait for La Redoute, basically have the same plan as UAE. With the idea that Evenepoel can just beat him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree, but doubt SOQ will do this. They probably also want to wait for La Redoute, basically have the same plan as UAE. With the idea that Evenepoel can just beat him.

Yep, this was also their plain in 2023 when Pog crashed. Pog also struggled in Amstel the week before against Healy that year, and needed Leo to bail him out. So it might work against a not-top-shape Pog. But if Pogacar is on form, best case scenario Evenepoel will lose a sprint.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Best stretch of road to go should be after Desnie or Redoute. But UAE also knows that and they are very effective in locking down the race up to now. Probably they should try to make the race hard by attacking with van Wilder and Schachmann rather then just pace with UAE. I think a bit more of a chaotic race could be good for Remco. Can depend on Alaphilippe every race to deliver the assist.

Liege is more advantage Pogi then Amstel is but I also wouldn't give too much on the Fleche result. I think Remco could be close but I think he loses a straight up 1 on 1 against Pogi.