Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Netserk]

70-80% sounds too high to me. Just looking at crashes, there's probably at least a 20% chance of crashes taking him out of contention. Then you have Almeida challenging for the podium as well. Personally, I think that Almeida will take the last spot on the podium, but I can see why Remco is favored more than him. Lipowitz looks good as well, although of course he's peaking right now while Remco is improving towards the Tour. Throw in Roglic as well and I think 50% chance of a podium for Remco is more realistic.

I don't think Almeida will close the gap to him compared to last year, if anything I think it will widen.

 

[Salvarani]

His team still believes he can get to equal footing with them. I don’t understand why they think that.

What they say in public, might not be how they feel in private.

Things can happen or change quickly in a race though. Especially over three weeks.

He should keep riding within himself, do what he can do be in the best condition he can be and hope an opportunity presents itself.

Not much more he can do atm.

 

[Berniece]

70-80% sounds too high to me. Just looking at crashes, there's probably at least a 20% chance of crashes taking him out of contention. Then you have Almeida challenging for the podium as well. Personally, I think that Almeida will take the last spot on the podium, but I can see why Remco is favored more than him. Lipowitz looks good as well, although of course he's peaking right now while Remco is improving towards the Tour. Throw in Roglic as well and I think 50% chance of a podium for Remco is more realistic.

20%? How do you get to that number? How many times did he crash out of a race? 20% of the time?

 

[Red Rick]

20%? How do you get to that number? How many times did he crash out of a race? 20% of the time?

Odds of Roglic not crashing

 

[Peyroteo94]

Some of my predictions are wrong but in the Remco's case, I am right. He is not made for the high mountains, it is obvious he is not a natural climber (he can be in mediocre shape and still win classics or TTs, not mountain stages) and he doesn't have a future Tour win in him. Unfortunately for him, the gap is getting bigger and bigger and last year was probably his best opportunity due to Pogacar's Giro Tour attempt and Vingegaard's heavy crash. I still think braking a collarbone (12 weeks before the Tour) is better than doing the Giro (to win). Does anyone believe Bernal would win the Tour 2019 after doing the Giro? I don't think so. However he didn't race the Giro because he broke his collarbone.
I think it is a pity, a rider like Remco deserved a shot in fighting for the Tour win (he would in another era) but unfortunately he races in the same era of Vingegaard and specially Pogacar.

 

[ppanther92]

Remco is far below his 2024 TDF level and he is below his Lombardia 2024 level. Maybe it's the crash but we don't know.
I think his approach to training is wrong. He is still focusing WAY too much on time trialing.
He says he is at his TDF 2024 weight but I see the same muscular stocky build.

He is far above his last year Dauphine level though

 

[Hugo Koblet]

20%? How do you get to that number? How many times did he crash out of a race? 20% of the time?

That's just a guess on how often a rider is prevented from challenging for GC because of crashing. It's not meant as a dig against Remco, I don't necessary believe that he will crash out of contention more often than anyone else.

 

[Squire]

70-80% sounds too high to me. Just looking at crashes, there's probably at least a 20% chance of crashes taking him out of contention. Then you have Almeida challenging for the podium as well. Personally, I think that Almeida will take the last spot on the podium, but I can see why Remco is favored more than him. Lipowitz looks good as well, although of course he's peaking right now while Remco is improving towards the Tour. Throw in Roglic as well and I think 50% chance of a podium for Remco is more realistic.

Agree with this, mostly. It's incredibly rare that a GT podium ends up as predicted before the race. Seems like this is very often forgotten on here. Last month was a prime example.

What speaks in Remco's favour though, is that the two aliens also have a chance of mishaps. We're almost due something to ruin that fight for once. Although Pog seems to have an almost Armstrong-esque ability to stay out of serious trouble.

Also in Remco's favour is the fact that Pog's team is conspiciously light on elite high mountain support this time, so Almeida might be forced to do too much work to get on the podium. He might be the only guy with Pog when there are still a few Vismas in the group. I don't believe in a declining Adam Yates doubling up on GTs.

20%? How do you get to that number? How many times did he crash out of a race? 20% of the time?

Out of his five career GTs, three of them have not gone to plan.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I don't think Almeida will close the gap to him compared to last year, if anything I think it will widen.

Really? That's interesting. I have seen nothing to indicate that Evenepoel has improved this year, while Almeida certainly has improved a lot. Why do you reckon that?

 

[Salvarani]

He is far above his last year Dauphine level though

Yeah. Last year he had the Basque crash and Dauphine was the first race back.

He is better prepared here this season. Close to peak shape.

 

[Netserk]

Really? That's interesting. I have seen nothing to indicate that Evenepoel has improved this year, while Almeida certainly has improved a lot. Why do you reckon that?

Because his path to the Dauphiné was much better this year than last year. And I don't think Almeida has improved compared to his level in Suisse last year.

 

[dazaau]

Remco is far below his 2024 TDF level and he is below his Lombardia 2024 level. Maybe it's the crash but we don't know.
I think his approach to training is wrong. He is still focusing WAY too much on time trialing.
He says he is at his TDF 2024 weight but I see the same muscular stocky build.

But he is better than his 2024 Dauphine level. Went all right at the tour.

If Pog dominates in July I at least hope for a proper Roglic Remco battle with no crashes. I know, I ask too much.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Anyone thinking Remco is far from his peak is fooling himself. He told he is similar to his TdF 2024 shape. He will not improve like he improved last year. His TT just shows he is better than ever (or close to).

 

[Netserk]

Anyone thinking Remco is far from his peak is fooling himself. He told he is similar to his TdF 2024 shape. He will not improve like he improved last year. His TT just shows he is better than ever (or close to).

Do you think it's unlikely that he will deliver a single performance in the Tour this year that is on the level of or even better than what he did on Beille last year?

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Anyone thinking Remco is far from his peak is fooling himself. He told he is similar to his TdF 2024 shape. He will not improve like he improved last year. His TT just shows he is better than ever (or close to).

Did he actually say he's similar to TdF shape? Didn't he say he was close to Tour weight? I don't recall him saying that he's basically at Tour level, although I read it everywhere.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Do you think it's unlikely that he will deliver a single performance in the Tour this year that is on the level of or even better than what he did on Beille last year?

I think he will be better but Vingegaard and Pogacar will improve too (even Almeida). The question is, can he reduce the gap to Pogacar? I don't think so. He lost almost 5 minutes in 2 stages and two days ago, it was an "easy" mountain stage.
Do you not agree with me?

 

[peterfin]

What if the purpose of this race was: 1. Go all-in in the TT to confirm his dominance there; 2. Improve his climb legs with his performance growth in mind (so without excessive exhaustion); 3. Give the competition the idea that you are not a threat by communicating that you are close to your best and then showing you are not that close to your adversaries. 4. Gather data to estimate their performance level vs his, knowing that they will go all-in in this race (ego-wise)? However, it may not be how it pans out. I assume 4. gives them chills. Maybe his crash impacts his performance a bit but also Pogacar's alien performance shows he can repeat his 2024 level. Still, Remco may do significantly better in the TdF than we see from him today. His May-June level never comes close to his July-August level.

 

[Berniece]

last year was probably his best opportunity due to Pogacar's Giro Tour attempt and Vingegaard's heavy crash. I still think braking a collarbone (12 weeks before the Tour) is better than doing the Giro (to win).

This alone says enough about the value of your predictions about Remco. It’s very clear why you say such things about him.

 

[Netserk]

I think he will be better but Vingegaard and Pogacar will improve too (even Almeida). The question is, can he reduce the gap to Pogacar? I don't think so. He lost almost 5 minutes in 2 stages and two days ago, it was an "easy" mountain stage.
Do you not agree with me?

I agree that all the best will improve, and I dare not bet that anyone can reduce the gap to Pogi.

I do however expect Evenepoel to be even more superior to Almeida than he was last year.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This alone says enough about the value of your predictions about Remco. It’s very clear why you say such things about him.

If we had a poll, I know a decent amount of people would agree with me. If Remco raced the Giro to win, he would not be in the Tour podium. I gave the example of Bernal which is a very good argument. Broke his collarbone and went on to win the Tour. It is not the perfect preparation but it is still miles better to be in shape than doing the Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

I agree that all the best will improve, and I dare not bet that anyone can reduce the gap to Pogi.

I do however expect Evenepoel to be even more superior to Almeida than he was last year.

Almeida has to domestique for Pogacar semi often anyway, so a bit of that also just depends on the level of the other UAE riders.

 

[Berniece]

If we had a poll, I know a decent amount of people would agree with me. If Remco raced the Giro to win, he would not be in the Tour podium. I gave the example of Bernal which is a very good argument. Broke his collarbone and went on to win the Tour. It is not the perfect preparation but it is still miles better to be in shape than doing the Giro.

Good to see you respond again. Your argument was that Pogacar had a worse preparation because he did the Giro, and you say Evenepoel or Bernal wouldn’t be able to do the Giro and then be as successful in the TDF. That’s correct, because Evenepoel and Bernal aren’t Pogacar. Pogacar is miraculously able to perform all season long and is never tired. So him being able to ride 2 GT’s back to back isn’t as hard as it would be for others. Evenepoel’s preparation was much more difficult than Pogacar for last year, and it’s ridiculous to say otherwise, imo.

 

[Salvarani]

Good to see you respond again. Your argument was that Pogacar had a worse preparation because he did the Giro, and you say Evenepoel or Bernal wouldn’t be able to do the Giro and then be as successful in the TDF. That’s correct, because Evenepoel and Bernal aren’t Pogacar. Pogacar is miraculously able to perform all season long and is never tired. So him being able to ride 2 GT’s back to back isn’t as hard as it would be for others. Evenepoel’s preparation was much more difficult than Pogacar for last year, and it’s ridiculous to say otherwise, imo.

Pog is more selective with his race days though, which helps being able to target races with much more focus. Mostly one-day races as well.

Remco had more race days last season, despite his crash and missing time. Despite Pog racing two GTs.

And despite Remcos late start this season he is only 4 race days behind Pog, currently. Vinge also only 4 race days behind despite not racing for months prior to Dauphine.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Good to see you respond again. Your argument was that Pogacar had a worse preparation because he did the Giro, and you say Evenepoel or Bernal wouldn’t be able to do the Giro and then be as successful in the TDF. That’s correct, because Evenepoel and Bernal aren’t Pogacar. Pogacar is miraculously able to perform all season long and is never tired. So him being able to ride 2 GT’s back to back isn’t as hard as it would be for others. Evenepoel’s preparation was much more difficult than Pogacar for last year, and it’s ridiculous to say otherwise, imo.

As you know, you were on my ignore list (by any means I'm taunting you, I'm just replying to you for saying "Good to see you responding again") but let's at least try to respect other opinions even if I strongly disagree with you most of the time.
Back to your comment, you don't know how good can Pogacar be without the Giro in his legs. We will know in July so it is not wise to claim something is ridiculous without even having any evidence he can't be significantly better.
From what I am seeing, he will show a better Tour shape (and not by a tiny margin) compared to 2024. What Pogacar did in Combloux two days ago... it's an all time performance. I had Contador vibes in Verbier. No one thought it would have massive gaps ("easy" climb and stage) but in the end, Contador destroyed the field there.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

His team still believes he can get to equal footing with them. I don’t understand why they think that.

This year? Very unlikely. He should be considerably better at the Tour with additional time to prepare and no crashes (hopefully for him) complicating things. But the gap is big and the mutants should also improve in the coming weeks.