He will never be competitive in the Tour against Pogacar (without crashes). He already realized that, I still think he should change teams (go to Ineos or Redbull) for a last opportunity but I fear it won't work. He is just not physically/biologically built to climb high mountains. Even this Dauphiné, he arrived very close to his ceilling (similar level to the one he showed in the Tour 2024) and the gap to Pogacar was bigger than ever (15 s/km).
I will give an opposite example. There is zero chance Vingegaard or Pogacar, even if they practise their TT every day, they will never be competitive against Remco (in good shape) in flat TTs. Remco's body is perfect to cut the wind.
Pog will likely hit his ceiling way before Remco does. Remco is not only younger, he also lost around 2 years of training because of injuries. That's huge. Will he ever actually beat Pog? Perhaps not, but surely will Remco be very close to winning the Tour one day. If he sets his mind to it, that is. (and if he stays injury-free of course)
Because I think Remco will soon start focusing on other goals, mainly the classics, which are his natural habitat. He's not going to live like a monk for years and years, to 'merely' have A chance to win the Tour at some point. He's too much of a winner for that.
Imo this Tour is going to play a major role. Will he finish closer to Pog and Vingo than last year, then the Tour will be his main focus again next year. If not, we'll see him at the start of Milan Sanremo. Maybe Omloop already, why not.