Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[James M]

Forget climbing times and W/kg estimates. Look at gaps to rivals instead, because that is much less fluctuating than climbing times. And comparing to Vingegaard and Pogacar, PdB was where he lost the most time that Tour, although how much he was losing on the MTF was fairly stable altogether.

It fluctuates due to weather conditions and how demanding the stages are as a whole for sure ofc.

But W/kg can be very indicative, but the best approach imo is to combine it with the time gaps to rivals(and the quality of those riders, because riders also develop differently and thats not a black and white measurement) which then time gaps is best used to more gauge and give a picture how demanding the stage and conditions are as a whole. I think the two go hand in hand in general view.

 

[hayneplane]

Rather than just winning the UAE Tour, I think he also needs to not get beaten up on the climb like in 2023 to represent progression.

Not sure about Del Toro as it will be steep, maybe suiting Yates more. Almeida just a glorified Derek Gee I think, not much to worry about.

I tend to agree. Winning it because he has defended himself well enough after the ITT would be good but not indicative of the kind of step forward needed to get any higher up the podium in TDF than he managed in 2024.

Winning solo on the new MTF would be a big statement performance.

 

[kingjr]

We know Remco dreams of winning GT. So we know Remco and red Bull are doing whatever they can to reach that goal.
I'm not sure what's so controversial about it. Would you rather have Remco & Red Bull throw in the towel without trying.
The chances of Ullrich beating Armstrong were slim, but I was grateful he tried time and again. And If Ullrich was at his very best during his Bianchi days a miracle might have occured. Alas Ullrich was at his best before the 2000's and never reached his peak again.

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

 

[houtdffan]

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

and don't forget an epic length TTT

 

[Cycling111]

and don't forget an epic length TTT

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

 

[houtdffan]

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

 

[elguapo]

Remco is flying during spring but his inconsistencies show when all the big guns are present. Perhaps he should not race all his races, specially the classics, as his main objectives, to conserve energy and be more prepared in the Tour .

 

[Oldman]

Forget climbing times and W/kg estimates. Look at gaps to rivals instead, because that is much less fluctuating than climbing times. And comparing to Vingegaard and Pogacar, PdB was where he lost the most time that Tour, although how much he was losing on the MTF was fairly stable altogether.

True,
but the power estimates can tell the tale when some of the competitors go to the red zone and other riders modulate based on who they are racing. Remco had the overall win locked; so he was testing himself while the others were also protecting or improving final placings.

 

[Oldman]

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

The World's ITT for Pog should be viewed for what it was: an environmental stress test. He needed to see how the heat, pollution, etc. would affect his prime event. That also could explain the last 10km.
His comfort with his form was there for all to see in the RR.

 

[Low is rhe new high]

The World's ITT for Pog should be viewed for what it was: an environmental stress test. He needed to see how the heat, pollution, etc. would affect his prime event. That also could explain the last 10km.
His comfort with his form was there for all to see in the RR.

Wow lame excuses for Pog not winning I thought those were reserved for Remco

 

[Red Rick]

True,
but the power estimates can tell the tale when some of the competitors go to the red zone and other riders modulate based on who they are racing. Remco had the overall win locked; so he was testing himself while the others were also protecting or improving final placings.

I think W/kg are typically more interesting in what it says about the strategy and overall conditions, and who tends to do well in what conditions. Roglic for example is still world class when it's an easy day crawling to the base of the final climb. Pogacar has historically gotten his most dominant performances on hard days when everyone else drops off. PdB I think falls a bit inbetween, where fatigue was really affecting the guys below the top 4-5 roughly but the top 3 were still relatively fresh, plus there was a sizeable tailwind there.

Also for W/kg purposes, I think having a flat or false flat downhill section before the final climb in question is a sizeable factor that gets completely ignored.

 

[Extinction]

I tend to agree. Winning it because he has defended himself well enough after the ITT would be good but not indicative of the kind of step forward needed to get any higher up the podium in TDF than he managed in 2024.

Winning solo on the new MTF would be a big statement performance.

It depends on his weight, if he still needs to shed a few kilos then realistically we won't see him going solo on 8% grades. The uncany thing about Pogacar is that even in early season races with climbs, he always seems to be very light and fit. Remco , who is more like a pitbull, may simply not have the body type to be able to maintain near GT weight throughput the year.

 

[AmRacer]

It depends on his weight, if he still needs to shed a few kilos then realistically we won't see him going solo on 8% grades. The uncany thing about Pogacar is that even in early season races with climbs, he always seems to be very light and fit. Remco , who is more like a pitbull, may simply not have the body type to be able to maintain near GT weight throughput the year.

Weight Weight Weight Weight and Weight again.

Remco's Weight is the most discussed topic ever.

 

[Extinction]

They talk as if Pogacar wasn't a better Tour de France rider than Remco before 2024 and in his early years. They forget that Pogacar already had two Tour de France, two seconds places (Remco one third) and one-week WT races , even against Vingegaard in his prime (Tirreno and Paris-Nice).

I don't know how much Remco will improve, but he hasn't been able to beat Vingegaard in a stage race and has struggled in several Grand Tours, unlike Pogacar, who has finished on the podium in every GT since he was 20.

Some articles are insulting; they treat the readers like they have amnesia.

It's irrilevant what they respectively achieved early in their careers. Remco had a trajectory altering crash and didn't, mistakenly in my opinion, even ride the Tour until 2024. Without that crash, he likely would have ridden the Tour in 2021 and we'd have a whole different set of parameters.

On the other hand, Pogacar considerably upped his already high game in 2024. As we saw, this was not good for Remco who already showed up at the Tour way too late. However, each year is a new chapter to be written, one in which we shall already see if things have remained the same come Liege. If Pog again dominates Evenepoel there, it is unlikely the Belgian will achieve much more at the Tour. Yet I doubt Remco won't be noticeably better this year, otherwise all that money at Bora will be for naught. Usually, though, big budgets net results and Remco is the type of rider who stands to gain much with increased financial resources. Put differently, I don't think Pog would have become the new Merckx without UAE's financial backing, especially considering his performance leap in 2024.

So the big question is really will Pog be able to maintain his level, or indeed improve upon it, of the last two years? If the latter then there is no hope for the rest. Although I don't see him getting better, as just holding that form will be a major feat.

 

[Extinction]

A

Weight Weight Weight Weight and Weight again.

Remco's Weight is the most discussed topic ever.

It is a simple fact that can't be omitted from the critical assessment. So I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but stating an unavoidable truth.

 

[AmRacer]

A

It is a simple fact that can't be omitted from the critical assessment. So I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but stating an unavoidable truth.

When will we discuss Jonas weight? Or Mathieu's

 

[KoopaCycling]

As much as i have enjoyed seeing Remco in action, and am looking forward to next week. Reality is that the 'real' season start from Catalunya onwards. I do not want to belittle the races so far. They have been great. But the races that truly matter only start then.

Pretty sure Remco and Red Bull know this. Some ppl hype on social media is getting a bit out of hand.

Hopefully remco and red bull will not be judged by all that

 

[Andre]

his weight fluctuations will be different with Bora as his new team. The way his new team manages him is yet to be seen; to me he looks lighter than previous seasons