Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[KoopaCycling]

Yes but some back and shoulder strength can be useful in cycling, and just in general given his past injuries.
Maybe they can reduce upper body mass whilst maintaining enough shoulder/back strength.
No doubt red bull trainers will know somewhat what to do. I mean they already let off a balloon to perhaps try reducing some muscle mass next year if this year does not give the wanted results. Ofcourse some will debate that given that Remco for them isn't a real GT talent, that would be wrong route. Remco wants the GT battles though, more than than the monuments methinks.

 

[Cycling111]

That’s not how it works. People don’t decline simultaneously, Remco could decline earlier or later

It's true, it's possible Remco will decline before Pogacar.
Therefore, his logic i saying that Remco will win the tour due to Pogacar´s decline is a baseless assumption.

He's assumed that Pogacar will decline before Remco and that Remco will be in shape to win the Tour.
It can be the other way around, bur if it's Pogacar declines first , it's more likely that a new cyclist will be dominant at the Tour than someone who debuted in the same year.

 

[KoopaCycling]

That’s not how it works. People don’t decline simultaneously, Remco could decline earlier or later

It's also a matter of motivation and ambition (as long as the body holds up).
An ambitious cyclist should be able to stay in contention till age 34 or so these days with some tweaking.
I mean some explosiveness will fade, but that don't mean you can no longer compete.
Unless something happens, i would think Remco has another solid 7 seasons in him.

I wanted to use Boonen as an example of someone who faded earlier, as i think he was done for the last 2 years of his career but was unable to let go . But he retired at 36 says a search. So right in line with the 34 age mark.

 

[Red Rick]

The thing about Evenepoel and excuses is for multiple reasons. But it's primarily the combination of 1) talking a really big game outside of races about challenging Vingegaard and Pogacar 2), excessive outbursts when things don't go his way, from bumtouching any rider who won't take a turn to excessive gesturing when he gets dropped from a group, 3) Giving multiple different reasons for poor performance, often changing the reason and regularly contradicting himself.

I also dislike the nauseating amount of talking from people around him for why things will be better next year, often coming down to "we didn't figure out something extremely basic last year". They're not the only team that does something like that, Visma for example talking about "We believe in the Tour this year Pogacar was close to cracking last year" is sleep inducing as well.

 

[theyoungest]

Are you trolling me? Do you actually believe that coming in to the tour this year, Onley is a bigger favorite than Evenepoel?

Why do you think every bookmaker has Remco above Onley for Tour GC?

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Maybe if they put Remco in a room with AC he could teach Remco how to climb.

I'm willing to try: I'm promising nothing...

 

[Berniece]

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

And will he be at his ceiling or floor during TDF? Is it his biggest goal or a side quest?

 

[KoopaCycling]

I will say this, i do believe Remco will get at least one real chance to win the Tour.
Unfortunately that don't mean he'll be able to take it. I had genuine believe in Jurgen Van Den Broeck for a legit shot at the Tour during 2011. Only for him to crash on stage 9.

 

[kingjr]

I will say this, i do believe Remco will get at least one real chance to win the Tour.
Unfortunately that don't mean he'll be able to take it. I had genuine believe in Jurgen Van Den Broeck for a legit shot at the Tour during 2011. Only for him to crash on stage 9.

I felt the same about Wiggins that year and thought the window may have closed for him, but he came back in 2012 and did it.

 

[YavorD]

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

I don't think the high mountains are his weakness per se. He has shown he can be a great climber.
He is just incredibly inconsistent and unreliable in the mountains. He can very the best of the rest or very poor.

 

[mikks]

Then make sure you work on that physique from the start of the season. It's like they didn't use any of the knowledge they got from SOQ, and decided to start fresh. Why not reduce the amount of muscles this season already? Why waste another one by thinking that just increasing his threshold is enough for some races when the goal is to win TDF?

There are no solutions, only trade-offs. Maybe he loses some muscle mass and the end result is that he finishes one minute closer to Vingegaard, but still comes third. And on the other side of the trade-off, his results in the rest of the season are worse. Is it worth it?


If I had to advise Evenepoel, I would say the most logical path is this: continue doing and preparing as you have so far, because it is clearly working (just look at his wins and results). If you are looking for low-hanging fruit to improve, an obvious one is to try to avoid injuries and illnesses in order to have a good winter. Then, let’s find small nuances and details to tinker around with—but no big revolution in preparation.

 

[Wvv]

I wanted to use Boonen as an example of someone who faded earlier, as i think he was done for the last 2 years of his career but was unable to let go . But he retired at 36 says a search. So right in line with the 34 age mark.

The Boonen that almost won Paris-Roubaix and the World Championships in his last full season, that outsprinted the likes of young guns Démare and Matthews in two semiclassics that same year, also got another victory in his last few months, and rode a strong farewell Ronde and Roubaix however hampered by bad luck.

All of this shortly after crashing hard onto his head with a fractured skull and internal bleedings as a result.

That Boonen you mean? Weird example.

 

[Netserk]

That Boonen you mean? Weird example.

very weird given that all the hiccups made him worse in 13-15 than his last two years

 

[Wvv]

very weird given that all the hiccups made him worse in 13-15 than his last two years

Some physical setbacks, also bad luck in Roubaix, and of course the loss of an unborn first child that really struck him. Nevertheless he still got some ok victories, Kuurne 2014 was nice and during 2015 he was finding his sprint legs again untill that horror crash in Abu Dhabi happened.

 

[mikks]

Are you trolling me? Do you actually believe that coming in to the tour this year, Onley is a bigger favorite than Evenepoel?

Why do you think every bookmaker has Remco above Onley for Tour GC?

I just checked Oddschecker, and it gives Pogačar a 75% probability, Vingegaard a 17% probability, Evenepoel 7%, and Almeida 4.1%(though, only few bookmakers list Almeida), Lipowitz 5% and Onley 3,5% etc.

So yes, Evenepoel has better odds than Onley, but in the grand scheme of things, Pogačar is such an overwhelming favourite that it does not matter much who gets 7%, 5%, or 3% probabilities.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

No, it is the best prediction possible based on avalable information and historical record. Then it is slightly adjusted for how people place their bets. On UK only betting sites remco is still favored over Onley for Tour GC. Not because of hype or investment on Remco from Uk players. He is way better at his best and is thus accurately rated as a bigger favorite 'TO WIN than Onley. We are not trying to judge who has the best chance of ending 3-6 consistently the next five years. Peak level matters much more for winning chances.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I just checked Oddschecker, and it gives Pogačar a 75% probability, Vingegaard a 17% probability, Evenepoel 7%, and Almeida 4.1%(though, only few bookmakers list Almeida), Lipowitz 5% and Onley 3,5% etc.

So yes, Evenepoel has better odds than Onley, but in the grand scheme of things, Pogačar is such an overwhelming favourite that it does not matter much who gets 7%, 5%, or 3% probabilities.

Of course he is and it really matters once pogacar is out for whatever reason... THIS happens all the time - Pogacar is just incredibly lucky (and skilled) to avoid injuries and illnesses at the wrong time.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Yes that Tom Boonen, i never felt he would actually win something major the last couple of years of his carreer. Sure he might have gottten close a few times but Boonen at his best would have won something.

2013 Nothing major, best win Heistse Pijl
2014 Kuurne (semi-classic)
2015 Nothing major, best win Rund um Koln
2016 Brussel Cycling Classic (it got some history at least)
2017 Nothing much

Since 2014 i stopped believing in Boonen getting something. To his credit he did get close a couple of times.
He looked done to me.

 

[James M]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

He's got this year to prove himself imo. if he does not perform when nothing extra happens, than it's time to go back to the drawing board and rethink things.

 

[Berniece]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

After one single climb? Please… let’s wait until after Catalunya at least

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's likely this exact forum topic. On what really gave Remco cramps.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

 

[James M]

After one single climb? Please… let’s wait until after Catalunya at least

Its year 5 or whatever its not one climb tho is it? Relative to others wheres the improvent on a general basis on these sorta efforts?

3 weeks in 2024 was an anomaly so far, dont get me wrong, thats good it shows hes capable, but it doesnt show hes a good climber on a general basis. In his position its about showing some progression. Somethings gotta give now.

He's got this year to prove himself imo. if he does not perform when nothing extra happens, than it's time to go back to the drawing board and rethink things.

Yes my take before the season aswell and not changing it now ofc but im just not holding my breath if you get me. Hes not a talent alone anymore its not enough but hope he proves us wrong. Whatever im not here to beat a dead horse if he starts showing signs then sure that would be welcomed.

 

[mikks]

Of course he is and it really matters once pogacar is out for whatever reason... THIS happens all the time - Pogacar is just incredibly lucky (and skilled) to avoid injuries and illnesses at the wrong time.

I agree, Evenepoel is a better rider than Onley and would have better chances. But my point is that if you take Pog and Vingegaard out, then the rest of the bunch is quite similar, and race becomes more open. Factors such as luck, who has a bad day and who doesn’t, who loses time in echelons, who makes a tactical mistakes and who doesn't, who is just lucky, how do team strategies change etc. who benefits from team tactics become much more prominent.

We don’t know what the racing would look like if you took Pog and Vingegaard out. Would it be basically the same—full gas from the bottom to the top? Or would it be different, more open, maybe more tactical, with more stop-and-go attacks, different attackers, and different counterattackers?

But overall, I am in your camp. I think that Evenepoel is capable of winning the Tour. But he is not a dominant rider (like Pog, Froome or Contador), where the question is not if they win the Tour, but when. Evenepoel needs the right circumstances and some luck on his side. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t.


For instance, I would say that Roglič was the best GC rider around 2019-2020—not dominant, just a little bit better than the others—but he wasted his opportunities, or maybe he just wasn’t lucky and his window of opportunity closed. Maybe Evnepoel gets his chance, maybe not.