Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Pozzovivo]

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

No, it is the best prediction possible based on avalable information and historical record. Then it is slightly adjusted for how people place their bets. On UK only betting sites remco is still favored over Onley for Tour GC. Not because of hype or investment on Remco from Uk players. He is way better at his best and is thus accurately rated as a bigger favorite 'TO WIN than Onley. We are not trying to judge who has the best chance of ending 3-6 consistently the next five years. Peak level matters much more for winning chances.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I just checked Oddschecker, and it gives Pogačar a 75% probability, Vingegaard a 17% probability, Evenepoel 7%, and Almeida 4.1%(though, only few bookmakers list Almeida), Lipowitz 5% and Onley 3,5% etc.

So yes, Evenepoel has better odds than Onley, but in the grand scheme of things, Pogačar is such an overwhelming favourite that it does not matter much who gets 7%, 5%, or 3% probabilities.

Of course he is and it really matters once pogacar is out for whatever reason... THIS happens all the time - Pogacar is just incredibly lucky (and skilled) to avoid injuries and illnesses at the wrong time.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Yes that Tom Boonen, i never felt he would actually win something major the last couple of years of his carreer. Sure he might have gottten close a few times but Boonen at his best would have won something.

2013 Nothing major, best win Heistse Pijl
2014 Kuurne (semi-classic)
2015 Nothing major, best win Rund um Koln
2016 Brussel Cycling Classic (it got some history at least)
2017 Nothing much

Since 2014 i stopped believing in Boonen getting something. To his credit he did get close a couple of times.
He looked done to me.

 

[James M]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

He's got this year to prove himself imo. if he does not perform when nothing extra happens, than it's time to go back to the drawing board and rethink things.

 

[Berniece]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

After one single climb? Please… let’s wait until after Catalunya at least