Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Netserk]

I think 1 minute more per hour of climbing is more accurate. (with 1 kg difference) This depends on the specifics of course.

a 0 watts marginal kg of body weight

yeah i dont think evenepoel cannot gain any more power at 65 kg weight vs 60 kg

why otherwise stop at 60 kg -- why not 55

 

[Divergence]

I agree, but not sure it has to do with discipline, but with how nutritionists and and trainers decide what he needs to do. I can remember that before TDF 2024, he wasn't riding good enough at Dauphine. He took it up on himself, ignoring the nutritionist of SOQ advice to lose extra weight for TDF 2024.

Well there are two possibilities.
1. The trainers decide what he does and he is in the current state because he is following their advice. This would not surprise me (at least the trainers' part given my low opinion of them) but why would Remco just follow the bad advice. If he knows what he had to do to perform well in TdF24 or Vuelta22 then why just not extrapolate from there.
2. He knows where he needs to be but he just cannot get there because of distractions and/or lack of discipline.

All in all, the conclusion is the same and I hope he is going to focus more on what is important and we get to see some nice racing.

 

[Extinction]

The major issue may be that he has such an unbounded view on what he can achieve, possibly strengthened by his successes as a junior and early results, that anything less is seen as a failure.

Yea, that success as a junior and initial pro results still as a teenager created a hype within and around him that simply needed further data for verification. Doubtless he has a huge engine. Unfortunately, however, his junior career was magnified and projected upon a hypothetical Merckxian future, before high mountain performance data was really known. He did not race Avenir, no Baby Giro either, to see what signs of mountain goat status might have apperared or not. And then nobody at the time saw a Pogacar, a Vingegaard and now a del Toro, a Seixas on the horizon. In hindsight he should have done one more amateur season with the hardest climbing races on his schedule. It quite possibly would have prepared him and his sponsors better for planning his pro career and its realistic objectives.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The problem is when you apply it to climbs of any length suddenly results on short climbs become rather implausible. There is some tradeoff at the very least, the shorter the effort and easier the overall stage the more it likely is.

On harder stages the difference on the final MTF could be considerably bigger than 1 sec/min of course due to cumulative fatigue.

 

[Red Rick]

On harder stages the difference on the final MTF could be considerably bigger than 1 sec/min of course due to cumulative fatigue.

I've honestly not looked into the physiological specifics, but wouldn't a lower fat% also just mean the body is gonna utilize less fat at the same intensity due to less fat easily available, so you just get tired more easily?

So being full anorexia mode made more sense in an era when you used to do a penultimate climb at 4w/kg and all it's glory.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I've honestly not looked into the physiological specifics, but wouldn't a lower fat% also just mean the body is gonna utilize less fat at the same intensity due to less fat easily available, so you just get tired more easily?

So being full anorexia mode made more sense in an era when you used to do a penultimate climb at 4w/kg and all it's glory.

They consume ridiculous amount of carbs nowadays so I'm not sure if their fat comsumption is higher than before. I don't think so regarding high intensity MTF but maybe it's the case for earlier phases of races.

As for being more fatty, those marathon world-beaters are still super-thin aren't they? I think they still have enough fat reserves.

 

[Divergence]

I've honestly not looked into the physiological specifics, but wouldn't a lower fat% also just mean the body is gonna utilize less fat at the same intensity due to less fat easily available, so you just get tired more easily?

So being full anorexia mode made more sense in an era when you used to do a penultimate climb at 4w/kg and all it's glory.

I believe this would never be an issue in a road race. Also, how do you define being tired?

 

[AmRacer]

They consume ridiculous amount of carbs nowadays so I'm not sure if their fat comsumption is higher than before. I don't think so regarding high intensity MTF but maybe it's the case for earlier phases of races.

As for being more fatty, those marathon world-beaters are still super-thin aren't they? I think they still have enough fat reserves.

But they run a marathon a month? Cycling racers do three marathon a day

 

[AmRacer]

I believe this would never be an issue in a road race. Also, how do you define being tired?

Getting dropped

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But they run a marathon a month? Cycling racers do three marathon a day

They still run 20-30 km daily as training (mostly in fat burning zones).

 

[Divergence]

Getting dropped

Then no, a fully functioning road cyclist is not getting dropped because he does not have enough fat in his body.

 

[AmRacer]

Then no, a fully functioning road cyclist is not getting dropped because he does not have enough fat in his body.

Fat is also energy

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Fat is also energy

If you see how top climbers look at the Tour you will know. They are very shredded, Even Remco was like that in 2024 (his best GT showing to date).

 

[Divergence]

Fat is also energy

Being tired is not just running out of energy. There is soreness and other things... That is why I asked how did the OP define tiredness.
In general, the leaner the better.
I know there is a push in recent time to present that being fatter, more muscle mass etc is somehow beneficial for road cycling, but, in reality, when gravity kicks in (and that IS road cycling) we all know who wins.

 

[cafe_rider]

Yea, that success as a junior and initial pro results still as a teenager created a hype within and around him that simply needed further data for verification. Doubtless he has a huge engine. Unfortunately, however, his junior career was magnified and projected upon a hypothetical Merckxian future, before high mountain performance data was really known. He did not race Avenir, no Baby Giro either, to see what signs of mountain goat status might have apperared or not. And then nobody at the time saw a Pogacar, a Vingegaard and now a del Toro, a Seixas on the horizon. In hindsight he should have done one more amateur season with the hardest climbing races on his schedule. It quite possibly would have prepared him and his sponsors better for planning his pro career and its realistic objectives.

This is an excellent point and he really just won every race by "brute strength".

 

[hayneplane]

Yea, that success as a junior and initial pro results still as a teenager created a hype within and around him that simply needed further data for verification. Doubtless he has a huge engine. Unfortunately, however, his junior career was magnified and projected upon a hypothetical Merckxian future, before high mountain performance data was really known. He did not race Avenir, no Baby Giro either, to see what signs of mountain goat status might have apperared or not. And then nobody at the time saw a Pogacar, a Vingegaard and now a del Toro, a Seixas on the horizon. In hindsight he should have done one more amateur season with the hardest climbing races on his schedule. It quite possibly would have prepared him and his sponsors better for planning his pro career and its realistic objectives.

That sounds fine in the abstract until you analyse what the results were in the relevant year of 2019 in the Giro Next Gen and L’Avenir.

Only Einer Rubio (2nd in Giro next gen) of the top 15 finishers in either race has multiple grabs tour top ten GC finishes on their palmares and only Rubio and Van Wilder have gone on to be GC riders from the U23 class of 2019.

Remco would have stomped the field in both races given the level of competition there.

 

[Extinction]

I can't understand why he and his entourage think it's ok for him, in this day and age, to show up at a World Tour race with some tough to nasty climbs and think 65 kg is GC competitive weight. He should be 60 kg, or say 61 with something to lose by the Tour.

They should at least try to err on the low side, because the high one clearly has not worked. As has been notes, the way they feed during the races the lower weight should not affect performance, as energy supply is constantly replenished.

 

[Keldergoat]

A question from my ignorant brain: if the weight factor is such a deciding factor, according to many, why did he outperform quite a decent field in Cumbre del Sol, a climb over 9% on average? Does the weight become more crucial the longer the climb takes?

 

[Extinction]

That sounds fine in the abstract until you analyse what the results were in the relevant year of 2019 in the Giro Next Gen and L’Avenir.

Only Einer Rubio (2nd in Giro next gen) of the top 15 finishers in either race has multiple grabs tour top ten GC finishes on their palmares and only Rubio and Van Wilder have gone on to be GC riders from the U23 class of 2019.

Remco would have stomped the field in both races given the level of competition there.

True, but you still have something rather than nothing to go on. Pogacar won Avenir over Thymen Arensman and Gino Mäder. Not something to predict what Tadej went on to become, but indicative of good climbing genes nonetheless.

 

[Salvarani]

That sounds fine in the abstract until you analyse what the results were in the relevant year of 2019 in the Giro Next Gen and L’Avenir.

Only Einer Rubio (2nd in Giro next gen) of the top 15 finishers in either race has multiple grabs tour top ten GC finishes on their palmares and only Rubio and Van Wilder have gone on to be GC riders from the U23 class of 2019.

Remco would have stomped the field in both races given the level of competition there.

But you also have to consider riders like Skjelmose, Tiberi, Carlos Rodriguez, THJ, Lipowitz... just to mention a few similar in age and who rode the U23s... while Remco went straight to the pros.

 

[Extinction]

A question from my ignorant brain: if the weight factor is such a deciding factor, according to many, why did he outperform quite a decent field in Cumbre del Sol, a climb over 9% on average? Does the weight become more crucial the longer the climb takes?

The longer the climb weight becomes increasingly a factor, yes.

 

[Salvarani]

A question from my ignorant brain: if the weight factor is such a deciding factor, according to many, why did he outperform quite a decent field in Cumbre del Sol, a climb over 9% on average? Does the weight become more crucial the longer the climb takes?

The climb wasnt long and he dropped a wattbomb. He has the brute strength and power for a shorter effort, but other things comes into play on longer ones.

 

[Cycling111]

That sounds fine in the abstract until you analyse what the results were in the relevant year of 2019 in the Giro Next Gen and L’Avenir.

Only Einer Rubio (2nd in Giro next gen) of the top 15 finishers in either race has multiple grabs tour top ten GC finishes on their palmares and only Rubio and Van Wilder have gone on to be GC riders from the U23 class of 2019.

Remco would have stomped the field in both races given the level of competition there.

You don't know. Giro next gen usually has tought mountains, and we don't know how he would have donde in those mountains.

Anyway, Rubio was very good climber back then, and for example, Vingegaard finished 40 minutes behind Pogacar in Tour L' Avenir, behind Arensman, Almeida, Vlasov....
McNulty would have been on the podium if he hadn't crashed and the one who has two Tours is Vingegaard, not him.
Back then, U23 riders weren't so professionalized yet, and the Colombians and Ecuatorians arrived very strong at the mountain stages of Avenir and the Giro baby; now, junior riders do altitude training camps like professionals.

 

[AmRacer]

I can't understand why he and his entourage think it's ok for him, in this day and age, to show up at a World Tour race with some tough to nasty climbs and think 65 kg is GC competitive weight. He should be 60 kg, or say 61 with something to lose by the Tour.

They should at least try to err on the low side, because the high one clearly has not worked. As has been notes, the way they feed during the races the lower weight should not affect performance, as energy supply is constantly replenished.

It's unhealthy for him staying at that weight too long. Probably.

 

[Extinction]

The climb wasnt long and he dropped a wattbomb. He has the brute strength and power for a shorter effort, but other things comes into play on longer ones.

Especially when the average grade rises to 12 percent over almost 15 km.