The Tour de France...the Armstrong vs. Contador show

[Robert Merivel]

Contador beating Armstrong in the first stage? I simply don't see it happening. It will be an all out mental war between the two. And the first victory goes to he who has more mental tenacity. Clearly, Armstrong is the King in that department and presently has the upper hand. Look to his last race in NC...and you will see how ready he is. Besides, there is too much on the line there/here.

Lance knows that for him to win the tour he needs to be the number one rider that the majority of Astana riders support (and JB will automatically support). And he will want to make that strategic move from the get go. I know there are a few out there who just plain don't like LA, and we all can justify our opinions on that topic. He does have an ego like no other. But, it's that ego that partially fuels his inner determination that gives him the clarity, purpose and fortitude, and that is what sets him apart from all other cyclists in the Peleton. He has nothing to loose and everything to loose...nothing to win and everything to win. He is a different breed like no other and for that reason he is a man of destiny with this particular race. The TdF is his playground for the play and display of why he's manifest in human form on this planet.

The gauntlet goes down on Saturday. As I have predicted at this forum...Lance will win this tour unless he gets the proverbial "kidney" punch...anything is possible.

As Basso said the "beast" will rise out of Lance in this tour and all out there that deny this possibility will lick their egoic wounds in the end. As for Contador...he is "still" a diamond in the rough, mentally speaking, and while finding himself second to Lance in this tour. However, he has the capacity to win many future tours, as this tour will truly be the turning point in his mental conditioning.

Personally, I would love to see them both battle down to that second to the last stage. Now that would make for the perfect ending to a truly remarkable story.

As for the other riders...Sastre is special breed and clearly has the ability in the Mts. Evans is the strongest I've ever seen him, but he rides uphill like J. Ullrich...not the most efficient climbing position over the long haul. One of the Luxy brothers? Not likely this year. Who else is there that has what it truly takes?

 

[Belokki]

Coming from a Lance fan...

Armstrong will not win it! He maybe stronger mentaly, he maybe the bigger star, he maybe the better leader, the better tactician, he may have been stronger in his peak years, BUT he's not his old self...

He will ride good, but he will not win...FORZA LANCE!!

 

[Angliru]

Pssst. Levi. Is that you?

 

[peloton]

Peleton.

it's peloton

 

[jaylew]

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, we just haven't seen any evidence yet that Lance has any of that old TT form, while AC has been tearing them up. Things could change, but right now I don't see LA being able to hang with AC(or Levi for that matter) in that 1st stage TT.

Frankly, I don't think either of them wins it. I think either Cance wins or whoever beats him tests positive later!

I guess it's possible but I don't see two Astana on the final podium.

 

[richwagmn]

Wow. Armstrong is suddenly a favorite? Based on which performance this year? Kicking *** in a local crit? Getting dropped on all of the Giro climbs?

Remember, he couldn't stay with any of the good climbers in the Giro and I'm just talking about sitting on wheels.

I just can't see LA hanging with Contador and Andy Schleck on the really tough climbs. And his support rider Levi, looks shot to me. Too much too early.

I also wonder how much of the Peloton dislikes LA? Could we see LA/Levi vs the Peloton?

 

[Jacques Tati]

Contador beating Armstrong in the first stage? I simply don't see it happening. It will be an all out mental war between the two. And the first victory goes to he who has more mental tenacity. Clearly, Armstrong is the King in that department and presently has the upper hand. Look to his last race in NC...and you will see how ready he is. Besides, there is too much on the line there/here.

Lance knows that for him to win the tour he needs to be the number one rider that the majority of Astana riders support (and JB will automatically support). And he will want to make that strategic move from the get go. I know there are a few out there who just plain don't like LA, and we all can justify our opinions on that topic. He does have an ego like no other. But, it's that ego that partially fuels his inner determination that gives him the clarity, purpose and fortitude, and that is what sets him apart from all other cyclists in the Peleton. He has nothing to loose and everything to loose...nothing to win and everything to win. He is a different breed like no other and for that reason he is a man of destiny with this particular race. The TdF is his playground for the play and display of why he's manifest in human form on this planet.

The gauntlet goes down on Saturday. As I have predicted at this forum...Lance will win this tour unless he gets the proverbial "kidney" punch...anything is possible.

As Basso said the "beast" will rise out of Lance in this tour and all out there that deny this possibility will lick their egoic wounds in the end. As for Contador...he is "still" a diamond in the rough, mentally speaking, and while finding himself second to Lance in this tour. However, he has the capacity to win many future tours, as this tour will truly be the turning point in his mental conditioning.

Personally, I would love to see them both battle down to that second to the last stage. Now that would make for the perfect ending to a truly remarkable story.

As for the other riders...Sastre is special breed and clearly has the ability in the Mts. Evans is the strongest I've ever seen him, but he rides uphill like J. Ullrich...not the most efficient climbing position over the long haul. One of the Luxy brothers? Not likely this year. Who else is there that has what it truly takes?

Im going to print this complete load of drivel off take it the toilet and wipe my backside on it!!

 

[Turd Ferguson]

And his support rider Levi, looks shot to me. Too much too early.

I also wonder how much of the Peloton dislikes LA? Could we see LA/Levi vs the Peloton?

Yeah, Levi does look shot. Hopefully he is getting some rest before July and can be a team player to whoever is leader.

I think most of the peloton likes LA. He is always chatty with a lot of other riders during the coverage. He does bring a lot of good exposure to the sport which should be a likeable thing if you are paid to ride your bike for a living. Like most things though there are always haters....just like in these forums.

 

[Jasper]

And why does this merit a new thread? There's already one especially about the 1ste Tour stage...
On the other hand, this one might be handy to dump all the doping talk and Lance loving/bashing in, so the other thread remains readable for those who don't give a crap about Armstrong...

 

[Mellow Velo]

And why does this merit a new thread? There's already one especially about the 1ste Tour stage...
On the other hand, this one might be handy to dump all the doping talk and Lance loving/bashing in, so the other thread remains readable for those who don't give a crap about Armstrong...

Because the 3 week fans can turn up a week early.
BullTurd Central.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Sheesh, if you think that's drivel, you need to do more surfing here. Or better yet, take yourself over to CF or DP sites!

Keep some things in mind beyond the past riding, and the teams and mind games - the route. Nearly all of the mountain stages are either not steep at the finish, or after the last climb have very long descents and lead outs to the finish. Remove the Ventoux, and there are maybe two tough mountain stages, and even they are not steep finishes. We talk about Lance being unable to withstand accelerations from Contador, the Schlecks, Sastre, etc. But look at the course again, and tell me where they are going to drop him like a sack of potatoes, especially if Astana rides as a train for him setting a fast pace over all the climbs?

It might happen, sure, but the route really favors Lance, and Evans, more than anyone else.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

It might happen, sure, but the route really favors Lance, and Evans, more than anyone else.

I would love to see one of them win - or some darkhorse that doesn't end up testing positive after all is said and done.

 

[jaylew]

Sheesh, if you think that's drivel, you need to do more surfing here. Or better yet, take yourself over to CF or DP sites!

Keep some things in mind beyond the past riding, and the teams and mind games - the route. Nearly all of the mountain stages are either not steep at the finish, or after the last climb have very long descents and lead outs to the finish. Remove the Ventoux, and there are maybe two tough mountain stages, and even they are not steep finishes. We talk about Lance being unable to withstand accelerations from Contador, the Schlecks, Sastre, etc. But look at the course again, and tell me where they are going to drop him like a sack of potatoes, especially if Astana rides as a train for him setting a fast pace over all the climbs?

It might happen, sure, but the route really favors Lance, and Evans, more than anyone else.

Agree for Cadel, but does it really for Lance? The problem is, he hasn't looked particularly strong in his old specialty, the TT. He has actually shown more ability in the climbs so far in his comeback. The way things are looking, unless he turns it around he's going to lose time to guys like Cadel, Menchov, Contador, Levi, and possibly other GC guys in the TTs, so where does he gain that time back if the course doesn't have any hard climbing? I just don't see it happening for him, but I guess anything's possible.

 

[Amsterhammer]

It might happen, sure, but the route really favors Lance, and Evans, more than anyone else.

...and Menchov, who will also have two strong helpers in Gesink (who may just ride top 10) and Ten Dam (who will probably ride top 20).

 

[LugHugger]

So far, I haven't seen anything from Lance which makes me believe that he can compete when the peloton hits 6th gear. IMHO, I just think that he's 3 years past his best. He doesn't have the kick on the climbs. He's no mug and I think that he knew where the engine was at when he retired. Contador will put at least 30 seconds on him in the prologue and where is Lance going to make that up? He's not going to out climb Contador on any of the stages and the bunch won't let him go in any break. He's just going to keep losing time to Contador and the other GC contenders as the race goes on.
I hope that this year's Tour really allows the much vaunted new vanguard to give the old guard a good pasting. I'm looking forward to EBH, Haussler, Cav, Contador, A Schleck and Gerdmann really getting stuck in.

 

[RdBiker]

We really haven't seen him put out anything special in the TTs he's done. And until he does I don't believe he can even beat Contador in a flat TT let alone in a hilly one.

No no no, this race is for Contador.

 

[isayic]

time goes by

Coming from a Lance fan...

Armstrong will not win it! He maybe stronger mentaly, he maybe the bigger star, he maybe the better leader, the better tactician, he may have been stronger in his peak years, BUT he's not his old self...

He will ride good, but he will not win...FORZA LANCE!!

Lance is almost 38 years old and didn't race for more than three years prior to his comeback. I can't believe he will win and I don't see him as great tactitian. The tactitian is and was Johan Bruyneel. -- Alberto Contador wants to win the Tour but doesn't want to be a big star.

 

[toppermost]

Wow. Armstrong is suddenly a favorite? Based on which performance this year? Kicking *** in a local crit? Getting dropped on all of the Giro climbs?

Remember, he couldn't stay with any of the good climbers in the Giro and I'm just talking about sitting on wheels.

I just can't see LA hanging with Contador and Andy Schleck on the really tough climbs. And his support rider Levi, looks shot to me. Too much too early.

I also wonder how much of the Peloton dislikes LA? Could we see LA/Levi vs the Peloton?

'The Giro was a training ride for Lance. One hell of a testing ground wouldn't you say... I think they will either behave. Or the mental strain of competing against one another will fry both of them and someone else will exploit it.

 

[BroDeal]

We really haven't seen him put out anything special in the TTs he's done. And until he does I don't believe he can even beat Contador in a flat TT let alone in a hilly one.

Aging should not have affected Armstrong's steady state power much. I would expect someone his age to be closer to his best in the time trial than on a climb that requires numeroud accelerations.

The course really does look like it was designed to give Armstrong his best shot at winning.

 

[cyclingworld]

Armstrong is the Best!!


Got a webcam. Create a Videopoke Now!

 

[BroDeal]

Armstrong is the Best!!

at doping.

 

[Merckx]

Hard to judge based on his giro results. I highly doubt that he showed his cards in that final TT stage. (With the rain, and tricky nature of the parcours).

By no means am I a LA fanboy, but I am expecting him to be completely primed for the TDF (with some extra-boost perhaps, as BigBoat would say). I really want Contador to do well - seeing as the rest of his career would become a joke if he were to lose to an Armstrong who "should" be have already slipped out of his prime.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if LA does end up achieving his 8th.. And a subsequent Disney movie is made about him where everyone lives happily ever after. (Except Alberto )

Gonna be a great Tour regardless. The more drama, the better! (In fact, perhaps the Astana intra-squad drama will open the door for a Schlecklet surprise.)

 

[Seth Bullock]

I personally don't see him coming out of retirement to compete in the Tour unless he knew/knows he had/has it in him - of course aside from some power profiling he wouldn't know until the action really starts. We haven't seen a lot to date race wise (collar bone) but he does seem to be improving. Then again, did we ever see much of him in previous years prior to the Tour? Regardless, Contador has to be the favourite. We shall see. The legs will do the talking.

 

[BroDeal]

One thing to consider is that the ease of doping during the TdF has changed since 2005.

Riders used to be able to use testosterone freely as long as they did not go over the 4:1 ratio. Using epitestosterone or other drugs, they could adjust their ratios to mask higher testosterone use than would be possible without such drugs. Now the AFLD is testing some samples with IRMS without the initial ratio screen. It is not safe to use testosterone. HGH can now be detected, although the detection window might be small. Insulin can also be detected. A lot of the drugs used for day to day recovery cannot be used like they could before Armstrong retired.

The use of chaperones eliminates some masking techniques for high hematocrits.

Kohl said that he did not dare to use anything during the Tour except blood transfusions. It may well be a a very different environment to race under than what Armstrong is used to. It could be a huge factor, especially the recovery factor.

 

[quadsRme]

One thing to consider is that the ease of doping during the TdF has changed since 2005.

Riders used to be able to use testosterone freely as long as they did not go over the 4:1 ratio. Using epitestosterone or other drugs, they could adjust their ratios to mask higher testosterone use than would be possible without such drugs. Now the AFLD is testing some samples with IRMS without the initial ratio screen. It is not safe to use testosterone. HGH can now be detected, although the detection window might be small. Insulin can also be detected. Alot of the drugs used for day to day recovery cannot be used like they could before Armstrong retired.

The use of chaperones eliminates some masking techniques for high hematocrits.

Kohl said that he did not dare to use anything during the Tour except blood transfusions. It may well be a a very different environment to race under than what Armstrong is used to. It could be a huge factor, especially the recovery factor.

Bro-> HGH detection , is that limited to blood samples or urine?