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The Tour de France...the Armstrong vs. Contador show

Page 9 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Apr 11, 2009
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BroDeal said:
You are also using a logical fallacy. It does not matter how many data points you have that prove a theory. All it takes is one data point, or counterexample, to disprove it. We have that data point. In fact we have six of them.

That is the clincher, a very important point. Otherwise it's the naive positivism of willfully obtuse thinkers who are part of a PAID public relations exercise in the Tour's run up. Of course, Armstrong will also have hired ex law enforcement, etc., to dig up the dirt on Lemond and other detractors, given the ongoing legal proceedings. Sound familiar, BYU?

Falsification is the essence of the scientific exercise, BYU. You need to read Karl Popper, and keep in mind the public relations of a willful branding exercise of a business and its entourage.

If the testing and apparatus are fundamentally flawed, or scientists know there clearly are aberrant results (performances that are unexplainable with reasonable assumptions, e.g. to Newton the orbits of certain planets, etc.), they start formulating theories to explain these differences. THEN they go look for better instruments and precise tests to validate/fasify their new theories. The existing instruments/data/results are no longer accepted as robust/valid. Cycling has very much been in the aberrant results category for nearly two decades--and the scientists all know they are far behind. It's not a good situation. Coyle's "theory" of why Lance's results are aberrantly good have been widely panned from a scientific point of view.

Ussain Bolt. Heard of him? Never failed a drug test. You should hear Carl Lewis discuss the % increase in performance of Bolt in the 100 metres in one year. He should know. He was beaten by one soundly: Ben Johnson. Aberrant results get people wondering, despite apparent passes of all existing tests. People know there is something screwey going on, just as scientiests do when the confront aberrant data/performances. This is the VERY start of science--not the start of slander or wishful thinking or moral turpitude.

Other examples: Schumacher pounding Cancellara in a TT at last year's tour; Rasmussen the skeleton turning into a "rouleur; Heras the fly destroying the TT field in his last Vuelta. All proven dopers.....Armstrong the football linebacker climbing Alpe d'Huez 20% faster than Lemond.

The list goes on....

But here's a kicker. The latter in terms of fraud, for example, can keep an immigrant out of the U.S. Check the State Dept's website:

Fraud:

* Making false representation
* Knowledge of such false representation by the perpetrator
* Reliance on the false representation by the person defrauded
* An intent to defraud
* The actual act of committing fraud

As everyone in law enforcement knows--apparently not you--there are loads and loads of people and networks who remain untouchable for years and pass all the "tests"--esp. in the drug field. Those who are caught are the tip of the inceberg. Does that mean for one sec. that law enforcement thinks they're innocent? No way!:D But in the field of cycling you create special exceptions. Why?

The situation in the peleton is very much the same. Mother Theresa does not rise to the top and stay there for 7 years unaided. Supernatural support, methinks.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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isn't this really exciting... talking about doping evidence against armstrong. we could go on for hours... talk about something interesting other than armstrong because it is really boring having thread after thread talking about him doping. lets talk about the racing e.g the tour de france
 
Jun 22, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
isn't this really exciting... talking about doping evidence against armstrong. we could go on for hours... talk about something interesting other than armstrong because it is really boring having thread after thread talking about him doping. lets talk about the racing e.g the tour de france

Amen! Try convincing the hate brigade.:rolleyes:

None of us 'know' how the LA vs. AC battle will actually pan out. We may have theories, suppositions, preferences, and we may envisage different scenarios, but I'm willing to bet that once the race starts, we're still going to be surprised.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Full disclosure. Get this: still hoping Lance does great at the Tour. Want him to beat Menchov and the Schlecks--but not everyone.

But I don't have wool over my eyes as to how this is done at the margins by many of the winners. "Fun and games" in the peleton I regard as ceteris paribus, and hence am still a fan of just about everybody, except maybe Schumi, Rasmussen, Ricco.

Nothing to do with hate, naivety, or credulity (all are a vice). It's possible to be none of them, LOL. Lance is not in their category, :D Go Lance!

P.S. On surprises, I like the way Menchov has been keeping a low and silent profile (unlike me, LOL). Bodes well for the Tour, I hope.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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Parrot23 said:
P.S. On surprises, I like the way Menchov has been keeping a low and silent profile (unlike me, LOL). Bodes well for the Tour, I hope.

You know, I've been thinking exactly that. Rabo has been virtually 'invisible' in the news, which suggests that no one is making waves and all is well within the squad. There was, of course, the excellent news that Pedro Horillo recovered from his horrific fall and (I believe) has left hospital, an event that seems to have gone unnoticed around here.

I think Menchov could be a very serious 'dark horse'.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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A fully on form Menchov etc. vs. a fully on form Armstrong would make a great race. And that's only two. :)

Throw in Contador, Evans, and the Schlecks, all firing on all cyclinders at top of form, and it should be a great mix. Hate it when riders, their plans, and form get hurt by accidents (esp. thinking of Horner too). Lot of work for naught.

I just look at these guys unvarnished, like anybody else, and still remain a fan.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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I just found this little bit of info on Steephill:

Comparing 2009 to previous years... 2009 2008 2007 2006
Flat Stages 10 10 11 9
Medium Mountain Stages 1 4 1 4
Mountain Stages 7 5 6 5
# of Categorized Climbs (Cat 2, 1 and HC) 20 19 21 22
Mountaintop Finishes 3 4 3 3
Total Individual Time Trial Distance 55k 82k 117k 116k
Overall Distance 3435k 3554k 3547k 3657k

Many, i think i have seen, claim that this year's TdF favours TT contenders more than the climber like contenders. But looking at the stats, there is an equal number of flats, a low number of medium mountain stages, more mountain stages and an equal number of mountain top finishes, while drastically (TTT) cutting back on the ITT distance.

Obviously this doesn't reveal the difficulty of the mountain top finishes (km/gradient) in comparison with previous years.

Looking at the raw data, whose abilities converge most with the stats?
 
Bala Verde said:
I just found this little bit of info on Steephill:

Comparing 2009 to previous years... 2009 2008 2007 2006
Flat Stages 10 10 11 9
Medium Mountain Stages 1 4 1 4
Mountain Stages 7 5 6 5
# of Categorized Climbs (Cat 2, 1 and HC) 20 19 21 22
Mountaintop Finishes 3 4 3 3
Total Individual Time Trial Distance 55k 82k 117k 116k
Overall Distance 3435k 3554k 3547k 3657k

Many, i think i have seen, claim that this year's TdF favours TT contenders more than the climber like contenders. But looking at the stats, there is an equal number of flats, a low number of medium mountain stages, more mountain stages and an equal number of mountain top finishes, while drastically (TTT) cutting back on the ITT distance.

Obviously this doesn't reveal the difficulty of the mountain top finishes (km/gradient) in comparison with previous years.

Looking at the raw data, whose abilities converge most with the stats?

'lies, dam lies and statistics' by the stats alone you would think a climber could take this with 7 mountain top finishes and only 55k of TT but the reality will be that an all rounder with a strong TTT team will take it.

Some of the stages are just plain weird, stage 9 has 70 k downhill after it goes over the summit of the Tourmalet. It is almost like they want to see the riders go over the climbs but still be very close for the deciding stages 18 & 20. Two weeks of four play for a few days of action, hardly worth the effort.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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Amsterhammer said:
You know, I've been thinking exactly that. Rabo has been virtually 'invisible' in the news, which suggests that no one is making waves and all is well within the squad. There was, of course, the excellent news that Pedro Horillo recovered from his horrific fall and (I believe) has left hospital, an event that seems to have gone unnoticed around here.

I think Menchov could be a very serious 'dark horse'.

Agree on Menchov. Quietly going about his business.
 
Mar 18, 2009
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To be fair, I'm a bit weary of this Tour course.

Contador's weakness is stamina. So where are the long, multi-hard climb stages? Most stages have easier climbs or flat before the final ascension.

This isn't good for riders who tend to do better in longer, harder stages, such as Evans, or the extreme case, the man whose every single good career performance has come in extremely hard stages: Sastre.

Even the time trials, above 40kms Contador starts losing massive time, and the longest TT here is.....40kms.

Honestly, If I wanted to come up with a route which is perfect for Contador to win, it would be hard to top this one. Not saying that it's on purpose...just unfortunate.
 
uphillstruggle said:
'lies, dam lies and statistics' by the stats alone you would think a climber could take this with 7 mountain top finishes and only 55k of TT but the reality will be that an all rounder with a strong TTT team will take it.

Some of the stages are just plain weird, stage 9 has 70 k downhill after it goes over the summit of the Tourmalet. It is almost like they want to see the riders go over the climbs but still be very close for the deciding stages 18 & 20. Two weeks of four play for a few days of action, hardly worth the effort.
If you thinking of the distance Tourmalet -finish in Tarbes is not that long as you said. at most i would think 45 kilometer of which 22 would be downhill
 
Jun 27, 2009
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Hey guys, guess what. Every facet of life is full of corrupt, incompetent people.

Oh, except for the UCI, french labs, and french media. No... those organizations are full of 100% ethical do-good smart people who would never break the rules.

The only "bad" people in life are on cycling teams, right?
 
fpcyclingn said:
Hey guys, guess what. Every facet of life is full of corrupt, incompetent people.

Oh, except for the UCI, french labs, and french media. No... those organizations are full of 100% ethical do-good smart people who would never break the rules.

The only "bad" people in life are on cycling teams, right?

Yes, true. Just like convicts in prison have many among then that can't be trusted, we have judges that can't be trusted as well. Same with Wall Street and the SEC or DOJ.
 
A

Anonymous

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Alpe d'Huez said:
Benjamin Disraeli.

Now, go be misinformed on another forum, where you can defend the Bush administration's actions to your heart's content.

(in regards to byu) Better watch out, we have an internet Christian Karl Gerhartsreiter here. He will soon claim to have been part of the Bush administration and therefore hold sway over any conversation involving politics.
 
Mar 15, 2009
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Dedelou said:
If you thinking of the distance Tourmalet -finish in Tarbes is not that long as you said. at most i would think 45 kilometer of which 22 would be downhill

THe downhill on the TOurmalet will allow riders within 1-3 minutes to re-group.

So yes, it is planned that way.

THe descent is not a switchback technical descent but long and widning gently.
I know, because I went UP that side and it would be a blast to go down. THe speed and the long straight sections allow groups of riders to regroup and draftr together instead of allowing good descenders to go away unseen.

The number, few of straight up uphill finishes and the limited number of straight up TTs does make the result closer.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Thoughtforfood said:
Better watch out, we have an internet Christian Karl Gerhartsreiter here. He will soon claim to have been part of the Bush administration and therefore hold sway over any conversation involving politics.

Ah can you really blame Mormons from UT...
 
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Bala Verde said:
Ah can you really blame Mormons from UT...

Well no, I am watching Romney on MTP right now, and I can say that while I have known some Mormons that were truly wonderful people, at least one of them can lie with a smile on his face. Maybe byu is Romney?
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Thoughtforfood said:
Well no, I am watching Romney on MTP right now, and I can say that while I have known some Mormons that were truly wonderful people, at least one of them can lie with a smile on his face. Maybe byu is Romney?

I hope he is. That obviously means he is spending too much time on forums, instead of being a politician, which is good thing for the general public.
 
Mar 20, 2009
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byu123 said:
No that would be the clap trap Obama spews about topics such as global warming. Stick to cycling or go be misinformed on another blog.
Are we going to have to put up with your misinformed blather during the whole tour? First, this isn't a blog, so you've just displayed your knowledge of the internets. Secondly, in this post you advise Bala Verde to stick to cycling after first whining about Obama. Thirdly, you started another thread that was nothing more than stupid flame bait. There's enough of this crap on these forums. Please, stop wasting bandwidth.