The Women's Road Racing Thread 2016

[ferryman]

Watched an hour of highlights last night and have to say the coverage was very good from the pre race pundits/interviews, race commentators and camera work. Good road side support as well. Not least, enjoyed the racing. Looking forward to much of the same today.

 

[Jonhard]

I thought they should have got the car out from behind Tetrick earlier, it and the motos contributed to the sketchy final corners. Majerus was the only one to keep her momentum - you could see Vos sprinting from a near-standstill and Bronzini and the rest were also baulked. Not saying it was unfair... Rabo complained but just a racing incident.

In fact, though it was a fun finale to watch, it wasn't great from a TV point of view as the narrow streets meant we couldn't see the full drama of the peloton approaching the catch... a little chaotic all around.

It's great to have a proper highlights show and also a nice change to have a co-commentator who knows the women's peloton well in Sarah Connolly. She was pretty good I thought, for someone who is not a regular commentator.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, the highlights packages for the race are excellent. Genuinely happy for Sarah Connolly to get the chance to commentate as well, given that her support of women's cycling is a pure labour of love and she's a much better source much of the time than the paid journos and dedicated cycling sites.

Onto stage 2, and while we did have, in true Women's Tour style, a reduced sprint as ever, it was much more heavily reduced thanks to the intervention of the weather and a couple of climbs. Early on we found out that the time gaps from stage 1 would be annulled so that everybody who was in the bunch at 3km to go would be given Majerus' time, which I had mixed feelings about. In many ways it's a good decision because the finish was pretty wild with all those corners late on in such a flat stage, and was inviting such trouble, especially with the cavalcade not able to be pulled off the road until 50m from the line and thus potentially baulking some riders, but in other ways there were gaps opened up by splits in the group coming through those final few corners that weren't caused solely by crashes and the riders who made those gaps didn't get to benefit, plus of course with the race having been won and lost on bonus seconds the last two years, putting time gaps, even small ones, leaving riders like Brennauer, Johansson and Armitstead with a bit of a deficit, could have been beneficial for the racing.

Today's stage was mostly very fast, the bunch wanting to keep things together for the bonus second sprints given their crucial impact on the race in previous years, and as a result the pace was high and most moves were unsuccessful. Of most note was that Vos picked up 3 seconds at the first sprint ahead of Majerus. After the second sprint, the bunch reorganized itself a bit, and this allowed a move to be made; the ever-aggressive Małgorzata Jasińska (I tipped her to be a break rider in at least one stage, but not exactly my most outlandish of gambles) of Alé-Cipollini and Boels' youngest rider, Amalie Dideriksen gained around a minute and led over the final climb, however much like yesterday the group then went to work to chase them down. However, the bunch had been split into two previously, and then the front group split into two again, with 29 riders up front, 13 behind and then most of the rest of the bunch dropped off the pace; the middle group included aggressive riders like Rossella Ratto and Chantal Blaak and potential sprint candidates like Hannah Barnes and Lotta Lepistö so it was in the front group's interest to push on and keep them from coming back (especially as Cervélo didn't have many helpers for Lotta and Boels had plenty of representation up front). Quite a few potential sprint candidates were stuck in the autobus too, which eventually lost 5 minutes - d'Hoore, Bastianelli, Roy, Fournier, van den Bos, Gutiérrez, Wild - but for the most part the biggest stars were up front. Except Emma Pooley, who trailed in yesterday and is clearly not at her best even taking the unfavourable parcours into account.

From that front group of 29, 27 made it to the finish together (only Bujak and Buurman were dropped), and Amy Pieters proved the strongest, giving Wiggle an important victory as the most prominent British team in the race; she nudged ahead of defending champion Lisa Brennauer, reprieved of a 25" time loss yesterday, but most importantly Marianne Vos took 4" time bonus for third place, meaning she leapfrogs Majerus in the GC. Also because Elvin pipped Majerus for 4th place, Vos takes the points jersey, though the Luxembourger will be wearing the jersey tomorrow anyway as Vos will be in yellow. Armitstead was content to let Majerus contest the sprint and rolled across the line near the back of the group; biding her time? She's been so stupendous thus far this season and these last two stages would have seemed like her kind of thing...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The third stage played its role as the most likely to create time gaps well, as with the number of potential victory candidates shrunk to 20 or so after the split in the bunch in stage 2, the number of teams and riders with an interest in pulling back the moves was reduced, and the parcours, despite 30km less in distance than the previous two stages, included some fairly tough climbing terrain in the southern Peak District. It wasn't a monster stage by any stretch of the imagination, but for the Women's Tour it was uncharted territory in terms of difficulty.

There isn't anything on this parcours really difficult enough to become a pure climber's terrain, and as a result some of the world's top climbers have not made the trip to the UK; however it is difficult enough that some of the top climbers in the women's péloton could make moves that could be potentially decisive. On the other hand, there's nothing that would be difficult enough to drop Lizzie Armitstead, and let's face it, she's been pretty unstoppable in 2016 thus far, picking and choosing her race days and dominating her chosen calendar. After stage 1 it looked like she wasn't quite on top form as normally that kind of technical, challenging sprint would suit her, but today she showed that she's still the same woman, taking the sprint from a group of four alongside two top-level stage racers in Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio and Elisa Longo Borghini, and the ever-combative Australian national champion Amanda Spratt. The time bonuses also mean that Armitstead takes the GC lead, with 5" over Ash and 7" over ELB. Moolman can sprint a bit, but is likely to need a select bunch (preferably not including Lizzie, which could take some doing) to be able to get the time back, while ELB will need to get away as her sprint is inferior to the other two; the group only put a gap of 36" into the main bunch, so the time gaps are still narrow enough that there are a lot of riders who are dangerously close on the GC and so Boels will probably be put to quite a lot of work to manage groups in the next two days to defend the lead, however they have shown little sign of weakness thus far in the World Tour. We know from experience that teams like Rabo will be aggressive, it's just how much wiggle-room (pun fully intended) they will be given before strong engines like van Dijk are put to work bringing them back that will be key.

Race leader Marianne Vos led home the sprint for the minor placings, but with all the time bonuses gone when they got to the line, she slumps down the standings and is now 47" down on Armitstead. Most of the main sprint opposition - Wild, Lepistö et al - came in with the laughing group ten minutes down. Spare a thought though for poor Laurel Rathbun, the 20 year old American only signed for United Healthcare two weeks ago, is riding her first race with the team, and has done a Kenny van Hummel job of racing in with the broom wagon snapping at her heels - coming in shortly ahead of the last trailing finishers in Norwich, being six and a half minutes behind the autobus yesterday and 12 minutes behind anybody else today (that penultimate group being a quintet of stragglers dropped by the autobus).

1 Lizzie Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR 2'54'27
2 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (Cervélo-Bigla) RSA +st
3 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High5) ITA +st
4 Amanda Spratt (Orica-AIS) AUS +3"
5 Marianne Vos (Rabo-Liv) NED +36"
6 Amalie Dideriksen (Boels-Dolmans) DEN +36"
7 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +36"
8 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High5) ITA +36"
9 Lisa Brennauer (Canyon-SRAM) GER +36"
10 Amy Pieters (Wiggle-High5) NED +36"

 

[Libertine Seguros]

While most of the big guns of the women's bunch are in the UK, a key Giro preparation race takes place this weekend, the Giro del Trentino Donne, which boasts a stellar list of victors and, pleasingly, is back up to being a stage race after the last couple of years when it's been reduced to a one-day event. No sign of the defending champion, Amanda Spratt, who is of course in the UK right now, placed 4th in the GC, but the restoration of the race to a climbing stage race has had a good effect as there are some decent names involved even with the much higher-profile Women's Tour going on at the same time.

The first stage has a pseudo-MTF at Daone-Pracul, not to be confused with the much steeper Passo Daone used in the 2015 Giro:

There's then an 11,5km ITT tomorrow morning followed by a hilly circuit race around Cavedine.

The startlist is pretty good, featuring most of the star climbers of the group not previously engaged in Britain (Moolman-Pasio, van der Breggen, Longo Borghini). There are some small teams, and some undersized teams (Astana start with only four riders, for example) but some key names who'll want to test out their Giro form.

The strongest team looks to be Rabobank. While they have much of their experienced names in the UK and so the helpers are mainly the development wing in Italy (Korevaar, Tenniglo, Kastelijn), they have cyclocross World champion Thalita de Jong and a two-headed campaign for the victory with the aggressive climbing-adept all-rounder Pauline Ferrand-Prévot, who has been splitting time with MTB this season, and the aggressive climbing-adept all-rounder Kasia Niewiadoma, who has just come from training the climbs of the Sierra Nevada; both are key contenders for the GC. Perhaps the most immediately apparent challenge to that will come from Lotto-Soudal's Claudia Lichtenberg, winner of the 2009 Giro and a more than capable climber in her own right; a tendency to be outnumbered once the selection has been made this season has been her biggest problem, which is less likely to be the case here. She's also backed up by most of Lotto's strongest riders, since they haven't entered the Tour of Britain.

There are further wildcards to be considered, though. Olga Zabelinskaya starts with dorsal #1, for BePink, and has won difficult stage races in the past along with her Olympic medals in both disciplines. She is, however, now 35 and with a storied history including an apparent silent ban. She is the daughter of the Eastern Bloc's greatest ever climber though, so she has the capabilities. She also has European U23 silver medallist Ilaria Sanguineti to back her up, she may not be too helpful in the Pracul MTF but the hilly circuit should be her cup of tea after winning the Tour de Brétagne last year. Alé-Cipollini may have their most consistent rider for hilly terrain racing (typically aggressively) in Britain, but their on-paper best climber is here in Trentino. However, placing an accurate prediction on what Francesca Cauz can do is a fool's game, since she's a pure climber in the most traditional mould, incredible on her best day, dreadful on others. Dalia Muccioli is also in the team as a strong climbing prospect, and Ane Santestebán who was really good in her home race in the Emakumeen Bira and has the tools to go well here. INPA-Bianchi have Änna Zita Maria Stricker who was second last year, but in this stage racing format I don't think she'll be a factor; INPA's biggest gun here is surely Tetyana Riabchenko, the Ukrainian champion has shown form recently and is often in that second group of climbers in the biggest stages of the Giro - behind the true elites but well ahead of the non-climbers or those suited only to explosive short-burst climbing.

Perhaps the most interesting wildcard of all, however, is Servetto-Footon, who have a two-headed Swiss leading ladies club, with the returning Nicole Brändli, hugely experienced and a former Giro winner way back in the early 00s of course, who at 37 is the oldest candidate for the GC, and most interestingly Jolanda Neff, the dramatic and exciting mountain biker who has shown some very impressive road racing chops in the last two seasons, particularly in Strade Bianche (unsurprising for a mountain biker of course, with the sterrato) and over the hills in the Trofeo Alfredo Binda. She was fourth in the Giro dell'Emilia last year and tenth in La Flèche Wallonne, but has never taken on more sustained climbing on the road. How she performs here will be interesting. Servetto also have another mountain bike specialist in Eva Lechner, while Anna Potokina was in the top 10 of this race last year as well. BTC are here with a decent looking team around Martina Ritter, but their strongest climbers are the likes of Bagatelj who are in Britain. There's also a Dutch national team made up of offcuts of the ToB team from a few of the bigger teams, with Demi de Jong the biggest name, but apart from Pauliena Rooijakkers' slightly anomalous top 10 in the Urkiola HTF of the Emakumeen Bira I don't think there's much that suggests they'll be big players in the GC here unless one of them suddenly borrows Ellen van Dijk's TT prowess.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Back in Britain, the Stoke-on-Trent stage with its QOM climbs and intermediate bonuses very close to each other creates some very tough racing. For the first half of the stage the péloton was quite a timid place, annulling most moves before allowing Emilia Fahlin, who spent much of stage 2 in the same fashion, to pick up over 2 minutes in a solo move in the luminous Alé-Cipollini kits before reeling her back in while Vos and Armitstead duked out intermediate sprint bonuses. At one point they even tried - with Lotta Lepistö for company - to push on as a group after the intermediate, but it came to nothing. On the climbs, however, we saw those closest in the GC spring into action to try to distance Lizzie, with Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, as she was yesterday, the one to initiate the important move. She took (surprise surprise) Elisa Longo Borghini with her, at which point Armitstead, as she did yesterday, dosed her efforts and paced herself back to the duo to make a three-strong attack of the top 3 on GC. She briefly tried to attack them, but Ash closed her down quickly. Emma Johansson then rode across to the three, leaving Wiggle with two in the quartet, and just 20km downhill and rolling terrain to the line. Johansson famously said after last year's race that the Women's Tour just isn't hard enough for her and if they didn't provide some terrain that gave riders other than sprinters a chance to compete she wouldn't race this year; she wasn't the only one to mention this but she was the most prominent and the race organizers duly took note, providing a parcours much more conducive to attacking this year, with some flat stages and some hilly stages that, while not providing climbs of the kind of distance and severity that the all-round types like Armitstead can be distanced on, provide plenty of opportunities for attacks to be made to pressurize the likes of Lizzie (Emma J is of course no grimpeur, but more than capable on mid-length ascents, you have to be to win the Emakumeen Bira). When her attack was brought back, Elisa Longo Borghini attacked straight away as she had been sitting on and has the weakest sprint of the quartet.

Behind the lead quartet, a gap was opening to the chase group, trimmed down to a pretty elite selection of Vos, Bronzini, Amialiusik, Cromwell, Mackaij, Spratt, Elvin, Harris, Pieters, Dideriksen, King, Kirchmann, Weaver, Brennauer, van Dijk and Blaak. So Armitstead was sitting pretty, what with four Boels riders behind, the Wiggle riders having just two and no helpers for Moolman. Even more helpful for the Briton, Vos was left alarmingly isolated, with Rabobank having lost most of their engines surprisingly, although she was able to count on help from Orica, as Johansson was threatening Spratt's GC top 5 as well, while Canyon-SRAM and Liv-Plantur then took over as the race got close to the finish in order to set up the potential catch for Brennauer and Mackaij/Kirchmann to sprint respectively. We were back to traditional Aviva Women's Tour territory - though the race has historically not been too balanced between sprinters and attackers in terms of GC (favouring the former), it has been balanced between sprinters and attackers in terms of the finish line, with the catches being alarmingly late with regularity. This year the GC gaps are bigger and the chase groups are much, much smaller, but we're still getting the exciting sprints to the line to find out whether the break can hold on or if they'll be caught in the final kilometre. Boels went for the Dolmanation Double move, with Harris attacking the second group at the same time as Armitstead tried to solo away from her breakmates with a kilometre to go, but it was seemingly forlorn as the group led by Canyon-SRAM mopped up the breakaway and swallowed Lizzie up for good measure.

But cometh the hour, cometh the woman, sly as a fox. Isolated in the chasers, Vos had been made to do a lot of work to chase the leaders, along with Elvin and Spratt (for Spratt and Vos are 4th and 5th on GC respectively), and a lot of balancing had to be done by Canyon and Liv to balance tiring Vos out enough to be able to beat her in the sprint against making sure the catch was actually made and the leading quartet didn't stay away. In the end, however, Merckx wasn't tired enough for their plan to work, so Marianne took the sprint from the heavily reduced group. This brings her much closer in the GC - with the time bonuses she should be in sight of the podium if she can win tomorrow's stage too - but with no time gaps in the group Lizzie also extends her lead by a couple of seconds thanks to the intermediates. Sitting up in the group before the catch to catch a brief breather (as well as sitting on when Elisa was solo) enabled Johansson to recover enough to still place well in the sprint, but it's yet another 2nd or 3rd place without a win for Poulidor.

1 Marianne Vos (Rabo-Liv) NED
2 Leah Kirchmann (Liv-Plantur) CAN +st
3 Emma Johansson (Wiggle-High5) SWE +st
4 Amalie Dideriksen (Boels-Dolmans) DEN +st
5 Lisa Brennauer (Canyon-SRAM) GER +st

The GC as it stands with one (mostly flat) stage remaining:
1 Lizzie Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR
2 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (Cervélo-Bigla) RSA +8"
3 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High5) ITA +10"
4 Marianne Vos (Rabo-Liv) NED +15"
5 Amanda Spratt (Orica-AIS) AUS +17"
6 Leah Kirchmann (Liv-Plantur) CAN +37"
7 Amy Pieters (Wiggle-High5) NED +40"
8 Lisa Brennauer (Canyon-SRAM) GER +44"
9 Emma Johansson (Wiggle-High5) SWE +46"
10 Gracie Elvin (Orica-AIS) AUS +47"

There are in theory 16" available in bonuses tomorrow, but it's almost impossibly unlikely that Vos would be able to take all of them without Armitstead getting a single one, and I definitely don't see Ash or Elisa outsprinting Lizzie either, so it's going to have to take a timegap or some creativity to unseat the race leader especially with the absurd strength of the Boels team this year - this is a team without any of their North Americans, Canuel, Stevens and current WWT leader Megan Guarnier too! Much like Rabo uncovering gems out of their young riders in mountainous stage races with Niewiadoma in the Giro a couple of years ago, Amalie Dideriksen came into this race probably bottom of the Boels totem pole for the race but has really come of age and shone in the flat-to-rolling terrain.

Full results sheet shows that Anna VDB did not finish, which helps explain why Vos was so isolated (although you would expect either Brand or Knetemann to have been with her at all times). Majerus missed the group after crashing heavily then working hard to help Lizzie before the selection of four was made, which explains her absence from the selection, she tumbles down the GC as a result, while Laurel Rathbun's Kamikaze Kenny run at the lanterne rouge comes to a premature halt after she climbed off today as well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Giro del Trentino went in many ways how you may have expected. On the first climb of the day a group of seven got together including several of the strongest climbers in the race, and with a couple of teams having two representatives and a couple of key climbers like Cauz missing the group they worked hard to build up an advantage. Especially with the Coppa Italia points and the UCI points playing a role in the teams that make the WT criteria for next season and also in the wildcards for women's WT races, the BePink and TopGirls teams worked hard to establish a gap before the final mountaintop finish. And at the base of that mountain, the septet had a lead of around 2 minutes; the group behind pretty much sat up realising they would not make the catch; from that lead group, there was a moment when Kasia Niewiadoma attacked and only Claudia Lichtenberg could follow, but the veteran German was unable to hold on to the wheel of the European U23 champion after a second dig, and was taken back into the fold by the four remaining chasers (Bitto, domestiquing for Top Girls, was dropped). Nevertheless, a five-way tie on time going into the ITT and a solid lead for Katie Unknown to try to follow up her Elsy Jacobs GC win...

1 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL
2 Soraya Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +32"
3 Edwige Pitel (SC Michela Fanini-Rox) FRA +32"
4 Olga Zabelinskaya (BePink-La Classica) RUS +32"
5 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink-La Classica) BLR +32"
6 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +32"
7 Irene Bitto (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +1'01"
8 Riejanne Markus (Netherlands National) NED +4'39"
9 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +4'39"
10 Martina Ritter (BTC City-Ljubljana) AUT +4'39"

 

[Jonhard]

AVDB crashed and abandoned but is apparently not seriously hurt.

Hard to see Armitstead losing the jersey tomorrow, unless something strange happens, such as Vos, ELB or AMP being allowed up the road. Vos looks fast though, eh.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I can't see Armitstead losing the jersey either, no. Majerus has pulled out after her crash yesterday, which will hurt Boels' domestique corps, but Cervélo-Bigla aren't as strong in depth as Boels, while ELB can't realistically win a sprint against Lizzie so has to drop her, which will be much easier said than done on this parcours. Vos is too far back to do it all in bonus seconds too, as while mathematically possible, Lizzie's too strong a sprinter to not pick up any bonuses if Vos gets the max. Vos also has a depleted domestique corps as both Brand and Gillow have dropped out this morning. With Anna VDB already out that just leaves her Koster and Knetemann for company. With the first intermediate sprint coming early, Boels bossed it, so now it's no longer mathematically possible for Vos to win the race without dropping Armitstead. Perhaps as a result of this, and the long gap before the next sprint, the race has started to more resemble a typical men's flat race, with a break going away and getting a decent sized gap - Molly Weaver of Liv-Plantur is now the maillot jaune on the road, as the break is 5 minutes ahead of the bunch, and consists of her, Eugenia Bujak (BTC), Marta Bastianelli (Alé), Elena Cecchini (Canyon), Janneke Ensing (Parkhotel), Kitchen (Hitec) and Lepistö (Cervélo), with Anna Plichta (BTC) in a hopeless chasse-patate a minute and a half ahead of the péloton but over 3 minutes behind the break. Perhaps most notably, defending champion Lisa Brennauer has climbed off due to sickness from the GC top 10 just like we saw happen to Armitstead in 2014. She was 8th at +44" so that would have been a more than solid bank of WT points for Canyon too (not that their position is exactly under threat, they're perhaps not a superteam as per Wiggle, Boels and Rabo but they're certainly in a 'best of the rest' kind of position with very good strength in depth).

On the other side of Europe, however, things are going very well for Rabo, as though PFP has withdrawn, the remaining quintet were able to win the morning TTT at the Giro del Trentino and thereby extend Kasia's GC lead, albeit only slightly. Second place went to Lotto-Soudal just 4" behind the Rabo girls, which moves Claudia Lichtenberg up above the rest of the group at +32" yesterday. Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo were at +24" with Servetto-Footon at +25" and Michela Fanini-Rox at +28".

This means Niewiadoma leads by 36" over Lichtenberg and 56" over Paladin going into the final hilly circuit race.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So the depleted Rabo reserves helped Boels control the breakaway but with both teams down on numbers today, the seven breakaway riders were going well. Weaver and Bujak were at least a decent threat to the GC to ensure the teams had to work hard, while Moolman was exempted from contributing her helpers to the chase by having Lotta Lepistö in the group. Similarly, Alé are another team who had been interested in setting a sprint in earlier stages, but with Marta in the group they had little interest in assisting Boels with the chase. They still had 40" with 4km to go, the GC battle kept within reach, when the break started to fracture, Ensing and Kitchen making attack moves, the former perhaps unsurprising given her comparative sprinting level against some of the names in the group. With 2km to go, 32". Bujak continued to push on despite her lack of sprint prowess with the GC points in mind (riding for BTC of course, the World Tour points are of more interest to them). A crash in the bunch helped the break to make it, however, and indeed they did make it, with Lepistö edging out Marta in the sprint.

1 Lotta Lepistö (Cervélo-Bigla) FIN
2 Marta Bastianelli (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +st
3 Elena Cecchini (Canyon-SRAM) ITA +st
4 Lauren Kitchen (Hitec Products-UCK) NOR +st
5 Eugenia Bujak (BTC City-Ljubljana) POL +st

Final GC:
1 Lizzie Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR
2 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (Cervélo-Bigla) RSA +11"
3 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High5) ITA +13"
4 Marianne Vos (Rabo-Liv) NED +18"
5 Amanda Spratt (Orica-AIS) AUS +20"
6 Leah Kirchmann (Liv-Plantur) CAN +40"
7 Amy Pieters (Wiggle-High5) NED +43"
8 Emma Johansson (Wiggle-High5) SWE +49"
9 Gracie Elvin (Orica-AIS) AUS +50"
10 Floortje Mackaij (Liv-Plantur) NED +53"

Good week for Cervélo considering their relatively small size - no two races at once for them on their budget/roster. But still a stage win and 2nd on the GC is a very good bank of points to have. The race has definitely been an improvement this year, with more opportunities for attacks from the bigger names that can realistically be expected to stick, the rider that won was the strongest over the mixture of terrain (you could argue that Ash was the strongest climber, but there's more than just the hills that settle the race, and Armitstead has been the strongest overall, as Ash and ELB have not been as strong in the sprints or as competitive in the flatter stages, and Vos missed out in the trickier hilly stages). You could argue (and possibly should) that the Women's Tour is roughly where the Men's ToB was around 2010. The earlier editions were a bit too reluctant to use the challenges of the terrain, leading to good support for the race and interest but somewhat less exciting racing, with the bonus seconds meaning that the fastest rider on the road didn't take home the prize (compare Kai Reus in 2009 to Rossella Ratto in 2014 for breaks that didn't win by enough to overcome the bonuses of successful sprinters, while last year Majerus' late attack in Kettering was the only move that gained any time). The 2010 ToB was the first that really brought in some tougher hills, and the tougher race route increased the attrition, but helped kickstart the race into a much more all-round challenge that offered something for everybody.

 

[Brullnux]

Another win for Armitstead. Have to say that for her I imagine anything less than a gold at the Olympics would be a disappointment, although the course any be harder than what is usually her best type of race. Maybe ELB a an snatch it from her.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Another win for Armitstead. Have to say that for her I imagine anything less than a gold at the Olympics would be a disappointment, although the course any be harder than what is usually her best type of race. Maybe ELB a an snatch it from her.

If she gets anything less than a gold it would of course be somebody else's fault, though...

I don't know really, the women only go up the main climb once, but 8km @ 6% is more than she normally hangs on through. Lizzie is phenomenally explosive and on 1-2km climbs she can power over unless it gets Mur de Huy steep (she's only really contended once at Flèche), but the small team and péloton size at the Olympics will likely be an issue, and what she's really going to need is to use her (excellent) descending skills to make those who can't get rid of her in a 'normal' one day race type situation but likely could drop her on a more sustained climb - the likes of ELB, van der Breggen, Ash, maybe Guarnier and Niewiadoma - attack earlier so they've got enough of a gap and then potentially blow themselves up in the bid to stay away. Especially as none of those would want to go to a sprint with her, only Guarnier would stand even a remote chance in a two-up. Lizzie picks and chooses her calendar well, and we don't often see her take on terrain that doesn't suit her. She never does Trentino or Bira, and her best GC in the Giro was back in 2009, wasn't that high up anyway and isn't really representative because she was an espoir back then.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In Italy, despite the best endeavours of Lichtenberg and Zabelinskaya to put her under pressure, Niewiadoma had little trouble marshaling the Rabo troops on the final hilly circuit race, with Thalita de Jong proving the main helper, in fact taking a couple of GPM points after reeling the aggressors in at one point. The attrition reduced the group down somewhat, but Thalita still had enough left in the tank to win the reduced bunch gallop at the end of the race, ahead of Riejanne Markus and Christina Perchtold. Nevertheless, that means the upper echelon of the GC goes unaltered, so Niewiadoma takes the overall win ahead of Lichtenberg and Paladin. Edwige Pitel manages to stay in 4th; she didn't even take up cycling as a specialism until her mid-30s and continues to perform well into her late 40s now. In fact, she was only doing sports on the side while continuing her academic career when she was at typical professional sports age; even then, at the time Pitel published her PhD thesis, Kasia's mother was still pregnant with her...

The eventual GC:
1 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL 5'11'05
2 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +36"
3 Soraya Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +56"
4 Edwige Pitel (SC Michela Fanini-Rox) FRA +1'00
5 Irene Bitto (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +2'17
6 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +4'39
7 Susanna Zorzi (Lotto-Soudal) ITA +4'43
8 Asja Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +5'03
9 Anna Potokina (Servetto-Footon) RUS +5'04
10 Riejanne Markus (Netherlands National) NED +5'26

 

[Jonhard]

Re: Re:

Another win for Armitstead. Have to say that for her I imagine anything less than a gold at the Olympics would be a disappointment, although the course any be harder than what is usually her best type of race. Maybe ELB a an snatch it from her.

If she gets anything less than a gold it would of course be somebody else's fault, though...

I don't know really, the women only go up the main climb once, but 8km @ 6% is more than she normally hangs on through. Lizzie is phenomenally explosive and on 1-2km climbs she can power over unless it gets Mur de Huy steep (she's only really contended once at Flèche), but the small team and péloton size at the Olympics will likely be an issue, and what she's really going to need is to use her (excellent) descending skills to make those who can't get rid of her in a 'normal' one day race type situation but likely could drop her on a more sustained climb - the likes of ELB, van der Breggen, Ash, maybe Guarnier and Niewiadoma - attack earlier so they've got enough of a gap and then potentially blow themselves up in the bid to stay away. Especially as none of those would want to go to a sprint with her, only Guarnier would stand even a remote chance in a two-up. Lizzie picks and chooses her calendar well, and we don't often see her take on terrain that doesn't suit her. She never does Trentino or Bira, and her best GC in the Giro was back in 2009, wasn't that high up anyway and isn't really representative because she was an espoir back then.

For me, the teams with multiple weapons will be the ones to watch - USA primarily, plus NL and possibly Italy.

I fully expect GB to pick Emma Pooley and Nikki Harris alongside Lizzie, but I don't think either of them pose a threat to the field notwithstanding the nostalgic warmth towards Pooley. LA is a medal outsider imo.

 

[jmdirt]

What country would not have an automatic selection for a two time Olympic, two time world, and four time national champion? The USA has a solid group of woman so that's a nice problem to have, but she's the defending Olympic Champion! She has ridden quite well for the last year and a half, but did have a less than expected national TT last month, but still finished third. She was also the national champion and top USA finisher at worlds last year. If getting a medal is the goal, there really is no question that she should be on the team.

 

[Jonhard]

Re:

What country would not have an automatic selection for a two time Olympic, two time world, and four time national champion? The USA has a solid group of woman so that's a nice problem to have, but she's the defending Olympic Champion! She has ridden quite well for the last year and a half, but did have a less than expected national TT last month, but still finished third. She was also the national champion and top USA finisher at worlds last year. If getting a medal is the goal, there really is no question that she should be on the team.

This is Kristin Armstrong, yes? Dunno, but you don’t get picked for what you did four years ago on a flatter course. Assuming USA has two TT spots, I guess Stevens is in and it’s between KA and Carmen Small for the second spot.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

What country would not have an automatic selection for a two time Olympic, two time world, and four time national champion? The USA has a solid group of woman so that's a nice problem to have, but she's the defending Olympic Champion! She has ridden quite well for the last year and a half, but did have a less than expected national TT last month, but still finished third. She was also the national champion and top USA finisher at worlds last year. If getting a medal is the goal, there really is no question that she should be on the team.

This is Kristin Armstrong, yes? Dunno, but you don’t get picked for what you did four years ago on a flatter course. Assuming USA has two TT spots, I guess Stevens is in and it’s between KA and Carmen Small for the second spot.

I contend that the 2 time defending champion should get picked for what they did 4 and 8 years ago. Having more climbing only strengthens my contention since she was one of the best climbers in the wold for many years, and can still climb quite well. And my question is, what other country doesn't have an automatic selection in this case?

EDIT: Yes, KA.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The real question with Kristin is, does the road race/time trial rule apply to women as well? I assumed it did, as it would be a key element of the decision by the Dutch to take Annemiek van Vleuten instead of Chantal Blaak, as I anticipate Anna VDB and Ellen van Dijk will be their two starting TT riders, but Annemiek gives them a third option while still being an arguable contender for the road race.

If the rule does apply, that will go against Armstrong because, while you say she can still climb quite well, the first Tour of California stage was the first time we've seen her compete against top level international competition over hilly terrain in several years (Mendrisio?). She's done well in the national calendar and has some good results at the Tour of the Gila, so she's clearly no scrub still, but the likes of Carmen Small have been showing themselves well in races like the Trofeo Binda and the Emakumeen Bira, which can serve as useful markers for the road race, and she kind of won the national TT championship as well, which I think put the selectors in a bit of a bind. For the road race, Guarnier has to be considered one of the potential favourites; Evie Stevie is a complete no brainer for selection. Having set the hour record earlier in the year as well as making the podium of the Flèche Wallonne, she is also more likely to be forgiven an underperforming day at the nationals than Armstrong, for whom it's just about the only opportunity to put herself in the shop window so to speak. Mara also wants to do the road race, because it's just about the only one she'll get in her career where she stands a chance owing to her very lop-sided skillset. If I were on the US selection committee Mara would be the biggest question mark for me, because she IS the best climber in the world when she's on form and motivated, but unlike Stevens or Guarnier she's not renowned for her selfless work for the team (quite the opposite, in fact).

When it comes to the chrono, Kristin is the double-defending champion, she's still clearly good enough to contend at least at a decent level when she's on form, and it is sad that she won't be able to defend her crown, but unfortunately for her, because she doesn't ride a full-time calendar and built her program around that Olympic event successfully in 2012, and so she's tried to repeat that success this time around, she hasn't given us as much opportunity to argue that that national championships performance was a one-off, really; if the RR/TT rule applies, she has to hope that her Tour of California performance was enough to book her ticket.

 

[Jonhard]

I would take Guarnier, Stevens, Armstrong and Rivera I think, but Coryn is probably the doubt there. I don't claim any great knowledge of US riders tbh but KA looked good in ToCali and does have a great record.

Edit - unless Mara wins the Giro.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

The real question with Kristin is, does the road race/time trial rule apply to women as well? I assumed it did, as it would be a key element of the decision by the Dutch to take Annemiek van Vleuten instead of Chantal Blaak, as I anticipate Anna VDB and Ellen van Dijk will be their two starting TT riders, but Annemiek gives them a third option while still being an arguable contender for the road race.

If the rule does apply, that will go against Armstrong because, while you say she can still climb quite well, the first Tour of California stage was the first time we've seen her compete against top level international competition over hilly terrain in several years (Mendrisio?). She's done well in the national calendar and has some good results at the Tour of the Gila, so she's clearly no scrub still, but the likes of Carmen Small have been showing themselves well in races like the Trofeo Binda and the Emakumeen Bira, which can serve as useful markers for the road race, and she kind of won the national TT championship as well, which I think put the selectors in a bit of a bind. For the road race, Guarnier has to be considered one of the potential favourites; Evie Stevie is a complete no brainer for selection. Having set the hour record earlier in the year as well as making the podium of the Flèche Wallonne, she is also more likely to be forgiven an underperforming day at the nationals than Armstrong, for whom it's just about the only opportunity to put herself in the shop window so to speak. Mara also wants to do the road race, because it's just about the only one she'll get in her career where she stands a chance owing to her very lop-sided skillset. If I were on the US selection committee Mara would be the biggest question mark for me, because she IS the best climber in the world when she's on form and motivated, but unlike Stevens or Guarnier she's not renowned for her selfless work for the team (quite the opposite, in fact).

When it comes to the chrono, Kristin is the double-defending champion, she's still clearly good enough to contend at least at a decent level when she's on form, and it is sad that she won't be able to defend her crown, but unfortunately for her, because she doesn't ride a full-time calendar and built her program around that Olympic event successfully in 2012, and so she's tried to repeat that success this time around, she hasn't given us as much opportunity to argue that that national championships performance was a one-off, really; if the RR/TT rule applies, she has to hope that her Tour of California performance was enough to book her ticket.

My assumption is that she did some USA stage racing to show that she could be an asset for the RR team after she wins gold in the TT. I'm just thinking of other countries who would put the defending champ on the team no matter what (if she had been racing of course). Maybe I should be pointing at IOC. The champ (or even all 3 medals) should get in without counting against her country total.

 

[Jonhard]

So Dani King appears not to have been picked for Rio. I thought this was likely, based on my view that British Cycling is an absolute circus that no longer even has a decent top-hatted impresario calling the shots.

Emma Pooley was a great servant to the team but she spent last week trying to hang on to the peloton in the Women’s Tour, and Nikki Harris (who I think is great) has done half a road season at the top level.

Last year they picked Alice Barnes, Molly Weaver, Hayley Simonds and Jessie Walker to go to Richmond with Lizzie – all promising and talented but astonishing that they didn’t think Dani King was in the top 5 GB riders. Makes you wonder how these decisions are made. My own view is that Emma hasn’t (since 2012) done nearly enough to justify the pick.

 

[King Boonen]

Absolute joke that King wasn't selected.

 

[Jonhard]

It is odd. She's always been a BC insider really: did it all on the track, took her post-crash sacking from the track squad with good grace, no moaning about Richmond, piped up in favour of Shane and BC during that fiasco. I really don't get it.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think this pretty much confirms it with all certainty that the RR/TT rule applies to women too. Much as I hate to admit it (and I really do), for the RR it's hard to justify Pooley based on her recent performances; her selection is surely all about the ITT. King is now seen as one of the most selfless and respected helpers in the team, and if it's a BC politics thing it makes no sense at all, because if they'll take Pooley (who they've screwed over before, and who rather bluntly criticised their treatment of the women recently too) then you must have been going some to get on the selection blacklist that way. I wonder if the Harris pick is because of Lizzie herself wanting one of her regular helpers alongside, somebody who rides with her week in week out etc..

 

[Jonhard]

The Boels connection would make sense of it, but it rather makes a mock of everyone else's efforts to get selected.

What are Emma's ITT medal chances? Not in the top five imo. Questionable to weaken the RR team for that, although I may be doing her chances down unfairly. It's not about Emma really, and tbf this selection makes more sense than Richmond!