So, it's Giro Rosa time, the one remaining GT on the women's calendar and the focal stage race of the year. As ever an all-star lineup will be in Italy, although like many I have some reservations about this year's comparatively tame parcours, especially following the improvement in comparative level among the bunch leading to even historically tough races like the Trofeo Binda being reduced sprints; also boosting team size back to 7 on one of the most controllable routes in years may have an effect on the racing we see. Having said that, the last couple of Giri have seen scorching temperatures that have made them brutal wars of attrition for the smaller teams, and with the race heading far further south than we've seen in several years this may be a conscious decision.
The race opens up on Friday with a
pan-flat 11,5km TTT. Personally I have preferred that recent years have opened up with prologues; my opinion of the TTT is well known and my reservations count double in women's races - we don't need to put the likes of Boels-Dolmans at a greater advantage than they already are by having a team comprised almost entirely of chiefs. However, the length is comparatively short and so hopefully this won't impact the race as much as these TTTs often do - there are far more TTTs than there are decent length ITTs in the women's calendar, at least in Europe.
Stage 2 is much better and, given the tameness of much of the route, one of the best opportunities for the climbers to gain time. Running over 122km from
Zoppola to Montereale Valcellina, it somewhat resembles last year's final stage but with further to the line. However, the Forcella di Pala Barzana is 25km from the line and ensures we aren't likely to see sprinters trading the maglia rosa for the first few days.
Sunday sees the annual trip to San Fior, though this year the stage is reversed,
running from there to San Vendemiano. Each year the San Fior stage delivers even though the designs have got progressively easier since Emma Pooley's huge escape, with Kasia Niewiadoma's first breakout performance as the then-teenage prospect was the last to be dropped on a legit monster climb to La Crosetta. This year there's only the one categorized climb, Muro della Cà del Poggio, and a much longer rolling run-in, so this may see a different outcome from the GC fights seen in San Fior in recent years.
Stage 4 is a
pan-flat circuit race in the scourge of all traceurs, the Po flood basin. While it's feasible the likes of Bastianelli and Lepistö make it to the end on Sunday depending on how it's raced, purer sprinters like d'Hoore may see this as their first real chance.
Tuesday sees a real GC battleground in the race's main ITT, a
punchy, hilly 12,7km test around Sant'Elpidio a Mare with two climbs in it. Ironically, given the lack of a real mountain stage, this may be the best stage for mountain-biased competitors to gain time...
Into the second half of the race, stage 6 sees a further circuit race, with four laps of a fairly typical women's cycling rolling-to-punchy course around Roseto degli Abruzzi. The
undulating stage features a climb close to the finish, but it's only just over 100m above sea level and they're climbing the easier side - however this is fairly typical Tirreno-Adriatico terrain and also the kind of course Lizzie Deignan - who may never have a better chance to win the Giro than this as it's usually the main race where she is willing to be a helper - loves.
Stage 7 is
a tough test from Isernia to Baronissi. Although there's only the one climb, to Montefusco, there is a lot of uncategorized up and down, and at over 140km and a week into the race, this one could take its toll on the riders for sure. I see it as a bit like stage 4 of The Women's Tour, but the actual categorized climb is a bit tougher than that. The run-in is fairly flat but hopefully the damage will have been done by then.
Stage 8, to Centola, features
more multi-stepped and uncategorized climbing although the final points are given 30km from the line. There are uncategorized climbs here that could really hurt the bunch, although the overall body of the climb is only about 20km @ 3,7% once you factor in all the flats and downhills. A tricky run-in that features a lot of descending could be a key factor however, as descents are a very common place for gaps to be made in women's cycling.
Into the final weekend, and Saturday is somewhat disappointing, as though there's more of that accursed uncategorized climbing, the second half is very flat, so this should be the final chance for those sprinters who can get over
those first few bumps.
And then, finally, the extremely disappointing final stage,
around Torre del Greco. Several laps of a flat-to-rolling circuit before the riders come to the base of the first real beast of a climb they've seen all week, the mighty Vesuvio...
...and then they only get to do the first 5km before descending back to Torre del Greco to finish. This bugs me for two reasons.
1) no MTFs or serious mountain stages in the whole race, so one on the final day would not hurt and could even give a spectacular finale, like 2015 to San Domenico
2) a circuit race including the 5km of climbing every lap would have been a much more challenging ending and much more typical of the GT nature of the race.
It's a real letdown of a route after the last three years saw iconic summits like Madonna del Ghisallo, Aprica and Mortirolo, and this year there's no stage comparable in difficulty to the epic Madonna della Guardia stage last year, which produced phenomenal racing. Mara Abbott may be gone but there are still strong enough climbers in the péloton to balance out an ITT. Now, the course is not as bad as I initially thought; the first road stage could be excellent if they fight hard knowing there are few chances to really make a decisive gap to come - however I'm quite pessimistic about the chances of elite escaladoras like Niewiadoma and Moolman-Pasio to make the required gaps without being chased back down by a several-strong Boels, Orica or Sunweb juggernaut. It could lead to some exciting stage chases, as we've seen in previous editions of the Women's Tour, but hopefully GC gaps are sufficient - and not just from the TTT - to create some good racing.
So, who's racing?
First up, the GC candidates. Boels are the strongest, as you'd expect; they have both 2015 and 2016 champions together (van der Breggen and Guarnier) plus, as I noted above, this represents the best chance that Lizzie Deignan has had to date - and possibly ever will have - to win the Giro. Their collection of stagehunters and helpers is monstrous too - Dideriksen makes her race debut in the rainbows, and she and Chantal Blaak are elite riders to have around; Canuel is a super mountain helper while Brammeier's presence shores up the flat strength plus gives credence to the possibility of Deignan having a tilt at the win, with Nikki her most favoured and loyal domestique.
The main threats in the mountains, as I noted above, are likely to come from climbing specialists Kasia Niewiadoma and Ash Moolman-Pasio. Ash just defeated a very strong Orica team that could have locked out the podium in the Emakumeen Bira, while Kasia just won the Women's Tour after defending against all comers and will be wearing the WT leaders' jersey this week. Against them, other than the parcours' limited options for climbers, is that the péloton will be anxious not to make the same mistakes again, and while WM3 worked their tails off to help Kasia in Britain, they are without Vos and this race is twice as long - the likes of Koster will come under a lot of pressure if they pick up the maglia rosa. Ash has perhaps a stronger second-in-command with WT U23 leader Cécilie Uttrup Ludwig; unless she gets sick or injured I can't see her losing that title now, and she's a more than solid climber, at least on these mid-length climbs. However, WM3 are essentially leaving Riejanne Markus to her own devices as a stage-hunter, whereas Lotta Lepistö has a bit more protection on Cervélo's team which may limit the level of protection they are able to give Ash. But both are riding high after winning major stage races in the build-up to the Giro.
(picture's a bit old, but I wanted to highlight both)
Orica will no doubt also provide a challenge with their three-pronged attack and experience - Annemiek van Vleuten, Katrin Garfoot and Amanda Spratt have all been there and done that, they have the advantage of numbers, and they're smarting from dropping the ball on Jaizkibel and losing a comfortable GC win; if hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, what about three such women? The other major multi-headed attack is likely to come from Wiggle, who have both the most likely candidate for a home podium in newly-crowned Italian champion Elisa Longo Borghini, and the earliest active Giro champion in Claudia Lichtenberg, who won in 2009, podiumed again in 2013 and only just missed doing so again last year; with a stronger support squad and starting what is expected to be her final Giro, the 31-year-old will no doubt want to sign off in style (plus as a big fan of hers I'd like her not to retire, but if she must, for her to do so on a high note). With Hagiwara returning and Cordon-Ragot in the best climbing form we've seen from her in a long time, they have depth, plus also with Jolien d'Hoore they may not feel the same pressure for stage wins as some.
Now, there are also a fair few outsiders who could impact the GC; there always are one or two of course. I draw attention to Janneke Ensing for Alé, for example, while the likes of Guderzo, Vysotska and Riabchenko cannot be counted out either as all are established, while Shara Gillow has been a strong mountain helper for Rabo and now has some freedom to show what she can do as well. Olga Zabelinskaya is also on the provisional startlist after a few quiet months, as is Linda Villumsen in her return to the top level, and Flavia Oliveira is always a hard one to predict come Giro time too form-wise. For Cylance, Ratto, Doebel-Hickok and Jasinska are all capable on this tamer parcours. There's also the possibility of a breakout, for example Soraya Paladin, Sabrina Stultiens or, possibly, young Czech champion Nikola Nosková, who BePink have thrown into the deep end after her spectacular introduction at Bira, followed by victory in the Giro del Trentino (admittedly with a somewhat depleted field) solo, and a national championships victory.
Part of the reason the team have taken such a gamble on the teenager is that last year's mountain breakout, Belarusian Ksenya Tuhai, has had a dreadful season, barely racing and when she has been on the bike she's been a shell of herself, and misses the race. She's but one high profile absence, with her compatriot Alena Amialiusik and three-time former winner Marianne Vos both missing the race due to injuries sustained during the Women's Tour; also Pauline Ferrand-Prévot is absent, while Sunweb have left out both Lucinda Brand, so good at the 2015 Giro, and Ellen van Dijk; however there are a couple of stages here that Coryn will like the look of and I suspect that will be the team's main aim here. Also, Francesca Cauz misses her second straight Giro as Giusfredi-Bianchi are trying not to overwork the notoriously fragile scalatrice, as she comes back from her self-imposed break; and Edwige Pitel has cropped up on the provisional startlist for SC Michela Fanini despite only having two race days this season and recently turning 50...
While there may be a lack of true tough mountains, there's still plenty of chances for good sprint battles as most teams have their top sprint options here, barring WM3 with Vos injured. d'Hoore, Bronzini, Hosking, Bastianelli, Lepistö, Dideriksen, Barnes, Guarischi, Wild, Rivera and Roy are all in attendance, plus there are some interesting stagehunters with a turn of speed such as Cecchini, Cromwell, Markus, Blaak, Fidanza, Confalonieri, Mackaij and Gutiérrez, plus I'm intrigued to see what Sierra can do...
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