The World Championships, how though are they?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lately I've been reading messages, especially on this place, saying the race is really harder than just a sprinters place. Especially the locals (Australians) claim that.
But other sources, riders and some managers, claim the race is suited for a bunch sprint of 50/60 men like Milano San Remo.

Now, I looked it up, the Melbourne to Geelong part isn't so important to me, it's just a run up and in that part of the race the peloton usually is pretty quiet anyway.
But then, the local circuit

Now, I know these climbs aren't easy and have parts of 13/14% in it.
But:

1) They aren't long enough
2) They aren't close enough to the finish
3) There is a serious downhill and flat part after them

So my personal opinion is, that it's defnately not as hard as last years race, and probably comparable to Salzburg, where 4 riders just stayed away due to taking a corner good, and behind that a big bunch sprint (McEwen was in the top 10...)

I think, bunch sprint of 30 to 80 man, depending on how hard the riders make it. Chances of a small group or soloist getting to the line is really small

What are your opinions, and if you think the race is harder, then please explain why, and not just "there's a part of 13%". Because even the Amstel Gold Race with +40 climbs (30 official, +10 'non-official' steep climbs) sometimes finishes in 30-man sprint...

 

[joy118118]

It seems that HTC thought cav could win

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If he can win San Remo, he can win this.
But that's just my opinion.
Ofcourse it all depends on how the race evolves. But winning is possible for him

 

[theyoungest]

I saw a video of the race course somewhere, it didn't look all that tough (not "though"). The recently successful Freire will sure be able to survive, and so will any sprinter who is not Theo Bos, Danilo Napolitano, or Kenny van Hummel.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Every important country has a sprinter. (Petacchi-Bennati/Boonen/Freire)
So under normal conditions there will be the regular guys trying to escape last round (Kolobnev, J-Rod, Gesink, a Schleck etc) but it's way too far from the finish.

A lot will depend on Cavendish's form. If he's in top shape it will probably be different.


...only a couple of weeks left... ;D

 

[Sasquatch]

The run into Geelong isn't as straightforward as you said. That time of the year here it is very windy. There could be major crosswinds come into play before they even reach the circuit.

On the circuit itself, expect strong winds.

My opinion is after seeing the course is a sprinter won't contest the finish.

If four riders attack on the last climb on the last lap or even the first climb on the last lap, they won't be caught.

 

[luckyboy]

If guys push hard up the cat 1., the downhill and the smaller climb after, I don't think there'll be any sprinters there..

 

[maltiv]

Note that the finish is uphill. Should suit guys like Freire perfectly, and perhaps Hushovd as well.

 

[Michele]

+1

The Worlds are at the end of the season and many guys arent as strong as in Spring (talking about theiir peaks).
Plus from the end of the 2nd main climbs there's 5 kms or so to the end, enough time for organize a chase.
But it will be a lotto as usual.

 

[theyoungest]

But it will be a lotto as usual.

As usual? Lotto riders rarely win

 

[Night Rider]

Video that the other poster mentioned is here ... http://vimeo.com/8784921

enjoy

 

[franciep10]

As long as Cav doesn't win I couldn't stand seeing him in the rainbow jersey

 

[BroDeal]

How steep is the final bit? It looks like it pitches up pretty steep on the graph.

 

[peloton]

How steep is the final bit? It looks like it pitches up pretty steep on the graph.

Tailor made for Freire.

 

[blaxland]

As someone who has ridden the course on numerous occassions,this will not be a big bunch finish........there is no way Cavendish will win this...course is more suited to a Freire or Davis type of sprinter......a dont write off someone like Haussler...can climb hills ok and can sprint with the best of them.....the Aussies have a lot of cards to play.........

 

[42x16ss]

As someone who has ridden the course on numerous occassions,this will not be a big bunch finish........there is no way Cavendish will win this...course is more suited to a Freire or Davis type of sprinter......a dont write off someone like Haussler...can climb hills ok and can sprint with the best of them.....the Aussies have a lot of cards to play.........

You can't rule out someone like Gilbert, Cancellara, Cunego or Valverde either. If there is a strong onshore wind by the time the race is finishing (very likely if it's a hot day) guys like them should be in the mix.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Tailor made for Freire.

Agreed. Too steep for any other sprinter. personally I think friere is going to have to have some very good form to get over the climbs.

 

[Cerberus]

Agreed. Too steep for any other sprinter. personally I think friere is going to have to have some very good form to get over the climbs.

Might be good for Breschel then. He won't beat a real top level sprinter in a bunch finish, but he would have a good chance if they get dropped, but the course isn't tough enough for a solo finish.

 

[Big GMaC]

Agreed. Too steep for any other sprinter. personally I think friere is going to have to have some very good form to get over the climbs.

Alejandro Valverde.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Agreed. Too steep for any other sprinter. personally I think friere is going to have to have some very good form to get over the climbs.

He has a knack of being in the right shape for the races that suit him excessively well, and if anything, he needs a long distance and tough racing to make that kick of him count.

I thought he'd lost his inner fire, certainly seemed to me like that last year. But having tasted MSR again, I can only imagine what that does to his focus on adding another Rainbow Jersey to the long row he has already.

If he gets a podium in the Brabantse Pijl, he's my favourite for the WC. And I would be amazed if he did anything noteworthy in the run-up to it, after de Pijl.

 

[Big GMaC]

I can only imagine what that does to his focus on adding another Rainbow Jersey to the long row he has already.

And the 4th Worlds Jersey will put in above everyone else! Try under-rating Friere a few years after he retires then!

 

[Francois the Postman]

And the 4th Worlds Jersey will put in above everyone else! Try under-rating Friere a few years after he retires then!

Even with a fourth, people still won't recall who great he is/was. Seems to be that sort of rider.

[edit:] scrap that, seems to be that sort of audience [/edit]

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The verona title 2004 was still the one that impressed me most.

Rasmussen attacked on the final climb, he was caught and passed by Boogerd. Nobody seemed to be able to get back, and then suddenly Freire appeared on the wheel of Boogerd with ease. Valverde couldn't at that time..

Freire in topform can handle any hill (except the Cauberg, where he never wins lol)

 

[Francois the Postman]

The verona title 2004 was still the one that impressed me most. Rasmussen attacked on the final climb, he was caught and passed by Boogerd. Nobody seemed to be able to get back, and then suddenly Freire appeared on the wheel of Boogerd with ease.

That race conclusion must still be the thing Timmy-loves-Rabo sees before him, instead of the usual rockets launching from silos, champagne bottles, and fireworks displays that Hollywood needs to fall back on to get anywhere near "climax".

 

[il_fiammingo]

11 laps of 245 vertical meters totals 2695m. (http://www.bikely.com/maps/bike-path/WC-Geelong-2010)

Lombardy has around 4300 vertical meters. Therefor some of the sprinters should have a great chance.