- Mar 10, 2009
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Wallace said:What puzzles and slightly irritates me about the whole "Cadel was just lucky" discussion is, aside from how much I just disagree with it, how it's the result of a kind of amnesia what everyone here was saying before the Tour. Before the race the common wisdom (or whatever you want to call it) on these forums was that the Tour was going to be a two man race: Contador vs. Andy Schleck, and that the only real question was whether or not Alberto would be too tired after racing the Giro. No one--and I mean no one--took the idea that Menchov or Basso or Kloden or Bottle or Horner or--and especially not--Wiggans could hang with Schleck in the mountains at all seriously. Because in the last two Tours it was shown that they can't. What we saw in this Tour was that, except for one day, stage 18, Cadel had no problem staying with both Schlecks--and what happened that day was a matter of tactics, and by driving it at the end Cadel made sure that his time loss wasn't significant. Strangely, the result of Cadel's performance wasn't an acknowledgement of his excellence on these forums, but the opposite--a bunch of people convinced that if Cadel could stick with the Schlecks, then all the riders who crashed earlier in the race, who in the last two Tours Contador and Schleck dropped easily when the ground titled up, also would have. As a line of thinking this seems to me to be what they call in my hometown of Boston "tot'ly retahded."
Basso can't descend or TT: there's no way he can win the Tour clean.
Kloden, Menchov, Levi and Horner can't climb like Schleck and Evans.
Wiggins? Really?
I don't see how "luck" plays in here.
If I recall correctly there was always doubt among the majority as to Contador being able to do the double. Andy Schleck was the favorite, with the Tour being his to lose. Evans was thought of as making the podium and possibly able to take advantage of Andy Schleck's remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and that is pretty much what he and Leopard did with their questionable tactics early in the race. Contador was not the heavy favorite. Certainly many had hopes that he could complete the double but with such a challenging Giro parcours there were more doubters than believers. I for one felt he could have won but of course luck didn't fall his way.
As for the argument that Evans' team kept him out of harms way, that can't really be debatable but many a rider has made it through the Tour injury free without riding at the front. Sometimes the cards are just not in your favor. Look at Frank Schleck at last year's Tour. He was well ahead of virtually the entire field when his Tour ending crash occurred, cobbles or not. As someone mentioned, Armstrong admitted that he was lucky (We all knew it already so thanks for this tardy revelation LA!) to have made through 7 Tours with nary a crash or injury. 7 years of no injuries or major crashes to compromise his Tour ambitions. That is luck!
