Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 9th - 15th March

[The Hitch]

Evans will be favourite.

Evans. Anyone else?

I definately see Scarponi as the favourite. Won 2009 and lost 2010 on countback having spent too much time celebrating.

Ok so the tt may stop him but hes not that bad a tter. Only lost 9 seconds to Nibali in that 20k Giro one. Came 20s down in the first one. 2nd in Lombardy as well. THis isnt a Anton style pure climmber.

It didnt exactly hamper his Giro preperation last time. THen again, now that hes with a big team they might not focus just on Italian races like Androni did.

Still based on the last 2 years, Scarponi definately the favourite.

Also EVans is apparently going to try to not kill himself in every race this time round.

 

[Ferminal]

Well yeh, there can't really be one favourite as it will come down to less than 20s more than likely. A lot of it will depend on the TTT where the difference in a good and bad team could be 30s.

Scarponi would be maybe 15-20s back on Evans, Nibali (not sure who else is running) in the ITT.

I don't consider Cancellara/EBH and similar to be a chance.

 

[ansimi]

Well, at least T-A and P-N are top races where TTers can do quite well as opposed to GTs these days that are all about high MTFs. Even TDS has gone hte route of catering to the pure climbers with 4 MTFs in a week.

I tend to agree with you. Sure MTFs are always exciting to watch but I don't want to miss out on seeing other styles of riders do their best.

I'm looking forward to this one

 

[royalpig180]

I am gonna go with Cancellara for this one. Obviously the ITT favors him, and with his strong Leopard team, the TTT favors him, and his team should have no problem controlling the race on the less hilly days. Now the question then is can he hang on in the hills. I think he can, and here's why. First of all, the hills as we can all see, aren't that big or critically placed near the finish for the most part. Also, remember that his big target for the spring is LBL, not PR or Flanders. So he should be slightly lighter by then, and I suspect he'll be able to hang on on these smallish climbs.

 

[royalpig180]

Well, at least T-A and P-N are top races where TTers can do quite well as opposed to GTs these days that are all about high MTFs. Even TDS has gone hte route of catering to the pure climbers with 4 MTFs in a week.

+1
Couldn't agree more. I'd also love to see a GT route next year (maybe the Vuelta) that put a little more focus on TTing.

 

[nvpacchi]

I think Grega Bole is doing P-R, but these parcours would suit him nicely. Short TT where he could do well if motivated, and enough hills to create a selection where he could get sprint victories.

TA doesn't do time bonuses for stage wins, correct?

 

[Ferminal]

TA doesn't do time bonuses for stage wins, correct?

They do.

At least they did last year.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Grega Bole is doing P-R, but these parcours would suit him nicely. Short TT where he could do well if motivated, and enough hills to create a selection where he could get sprint victories.

TA doesn't do time bonuses for stage wins, correct?

Bole? What about the finish to Chieti and Macerata? Doubt he will be near the big boys in those finish!

 

[ingsve]

I am gonna go with Cancellara for this one. Obviously the ITT favors him, and with his strong Leopard team, the TTT favors him, and his team should have no problem controlling the race on the less hilly days. Now the question then is can he hang on in the hills. I think he can, and here's why. First of all, the hills as we can all see, aren't that big or critically placed near the finish for the most part. Also, remember that his big target for the spring is LBL, not PR or Flanders. So he should be slightly lighter by then, and I suspect he'll be able to hang on on these smallish climbs.

Team Sky can probably do quite well here as well. They have a good TTT and riders that are suited for this type of riding. I could see them bringing a team with Wiggins, Rogers, Löfkvist, Thomas and EBH who could all do well here I think.

 

[TeoSheva]

Team Sky can probably do quite well here as well. They have a good TTT and riders that are suited for this type of riding. I could see them bringing a team with Wiggins, Rogers, Löfkvist, Thomas and EBH who could all do well here I think.

Rogers and Wiggings will do the P-N.

 

[ingsve]

Rogers and Wiggings will do the P-N.

Well, I guess that might suit them as well this year with the ITT and it's better to spread out the talent that have all in one race.

 

[taiwan]

Gesink had a good go last time, and maybe he'll be able to do more.

Serpa could be riding for himself there now as long as they don't go for Rujano or Sella.

Visconti could cope with that parcours pretty well too, I think.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I definately see Scarponi as the favourite. Won 2009 and lost 2010 on countback having spent too much time celebrating.

Ok so the tt may stop him but hes not that bad a tter. Only lost 9 seconds to Nibali in that 20k Giro one. Came 20s down in the first one. 2nd in Lombardy as well. THis isnt a Anton style pure climmber.

It didnt exactly hamper his Giro preperation last time. THen again, now that hes with a big team they might not focus just on Italian races like Androni did.

Still based on the last 2 years, Scarponi definately the favourite.

Also EVans is apparently going to try to not kill himself in every race this time round.

TT in GT is different. Here the TT will hamper scarponi's chances.
No way is scarponi a 'definite favorite'.

Evans will do well here I agree with those saying that.

I don't consider Cancellara/EBH and similar to be a chance.

+1. no way.

 

[nvpacchi]

Bole? What about the finish to Chieti and Macerata? Doubt he will be near the big boys in those finish!

Bole has proved that he has the stamina for 220+ kilo stages, and he can excel in races with difficult finishes (not necessarily MTF). With the lack of MTFs in this year's TA I feel he would be able to keep in contact with the bigger guns. Yet TA is always Scarponi's show, so Bole is most likely off to P-N.

But watch him at P-N, he probably won't place high in the overall b/c of the long TT, but he will be up there contesting the more difficult sprints similar to Sagan last year. Bole probably would have been fighting it out with Sagan last year if he didn't abandon after stage 3.

 

[Descender]

16km TTT can make important differences (see last Vuelta). That and the 9.3 ITT will be decisive in my view.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

When Rodríguez picked up his first win on Montelupone, Cancellara was in the top 10. Macerata isn't as steep or evil as Montelupone, but then he doesn't have as long a TT to get the time back.

 

[El Pistolero]

By the way, Cancellara isn't doing LBL or GDL. Just sayin'

 

[taiwan]

Having thought about this now, it's prolly Nibali's. Liquigas will own the TTT for a start.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Bole has proved that he has the stamina for 220+ kilo stages, and he can excel in races with difficult finishes (not necessarily MTF). With the lack of MTFs in this year's TA I feel he would be able to keep in contact with the bigger guns. Yet TA is always Scarponi's show, so Bole is most likely off to P-N.

But watch him at P-N, he probably won't place high in the overall b/c of the long TT, but he will be up there contesting the more difficult sprints similar to Sagan last year. Bole probably would have been fighting it out with Sagan last year if he didn't abandon after stage 3.

Look at the results for Macerata from last years edition

1 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Team Katusha 3:18:09
2 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone 0:00:05
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team
4 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 0:00:07
5 Benoit Vaugrenard (Fra) Francaise Des Jeux
6 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli
7 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team HTC - Columbia
8 Francesco Gavazzi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 0:00:09
9 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:00:11
10 Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Caisse d'Epargne
11 Maxim Iglinskiy (Kaz) Astana 0:00:14
12 Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
13 Manuele Mori (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 0:00:18
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo
15 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:00:20
16 Jose Rodolfo Serpa Perez (Col) Androni Giocattoli
17 Serguei Klimov (Rus) Team Katusha 0:00:22
18 Daniele Pietropolli (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini
19 Juan Jose Oroz Ugalde (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
20 Marco Pinotti (Ita) Team HTC - Columbia
21 Jan Bakelandts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:00:26
22 Pierre Cazaux (Fra) Francaise Des Jeux
23 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo
24 Simon Clarke (Aus) ISD - Neri 0:00:31
25 Amets Txurruka (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi


Only guy you could pass as a sprinter is Van avermaet. I doubt he could climb as well as Van Avermaet.

Same applies for the finish in Chieti

1 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli 6:23:47
2 Benoit Vaugrenard (Fra) Francaise Des Jeux 0:00:14
3 Leonardo Bertagnolli (Ita) Androni Giocattoli
4 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone
5 Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Caisse d'Epargne
6 Maxim Iglinskiy (Kaz) Astana 0:00:17
7 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team
9 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:00:19
10 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team HTC - Columbia
11 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:00:21
12 Vasil Kiryienka (Blr) Caisse d'Epargne 0:00:30
13 Francesco Gavazzi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 0:00:40
14 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:00:43
15 Pablo Lastras Garcia (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
16 Juan Jose Oroz Ugalde (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
17 Manuele Mori (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini
18 Paul Martens (Ger) Rabobank
19 Markus Fothen (Ger) Team Milram
20 Jose Rodolfo Serpa Perez (Col) Androni Giocattoli 0:00:46
21 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana
22 Federico Canuti (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:00:49

 

[Ferminal]

Look at the results for Macerata from last years edition

Only guy you could pass as a sprinter is Van avermaet. I doubt he could climb as well as Van Avermaet.

Rojas?

But that doesn't invalidate your point.

Bole can climb ok as he showed on a couple of occasions in the Vuelta. But there's no way he will get close to Evans, Scarponi, Nibali (and whoever else of similar ability is racing) on a steep uphill finish. Nor is he fast enough to win the sprint stages. He might be a favourite for stage 5 as it's downhill/flat finish and he could hold on over all the climbing if the pace isn't too high.

I guess it depends on the actual finishing gradients. 5% he might be ok with but 7-8% would be too much.

 

[nvpacchi]

snip

I wouldn't classify Bole as a sprinter, though he packs a good sprint from a smaller group (as Ferminal suggested with Rojas).

Keep in mind that he has shown the ability to contest uphill finishes (he placed top 5 in both Vuelta stages Gilbert won). And he has the ability to get over mountains (though they may not be MTFs) and still produce a sprint as he did in Poland. He's young, has two grand tours under his belt now, and had a very good season to build his confidence.

Look at Iglinskiy: in 2009s TA was 20th in 1 stage, placing 30th overall, then in 2010 he places top 5 in several stages, finishing 4th in overall. Now I would not classify Iglinskiy as a climber, yet he only finished 22 seconds behind Scarponi.

I guess all these points are moot considering that Bole is probably gonna ride PN, but I'm sticking by my man!

 

[Angliru]

Well, at least T-A and P-N are top races where TTers can do quite well as opposed to GTs these days that are all about high MTFs. Even TDS has gone hte route of catering to the pure climbers with 4 MTFs in a week.

Hey, I very much like the climber friendly parcours! The more MTF's the better for me!

 

[Angliru]

I am gonna go with Cancellara for this one. Obviously the ITT favors him, and with his strong Leopard team, the TTT favors him, and his team should have no problem controlling the race on the less hilly days. Now the question then is can he hang on in the hills. I think he can, and here's why. First of all, the hills as we can all see, aren't that big or critically placed near the finish for the most part. Also, remember that his big target for the spring is LBL, not PR or Flanders. So he should be slightly lighter by then, and I suspect he'll be able to hang on on these smallish climbs.

It was my understanding that while he has stated that it is his ambition to win all the classics, that actually attempting to win LBL this year is not in the cards. I believe he may have indicated that LBL was one of his goals prior to signing with Team Schleck but since then he's gone back to his usual format of races. LBL is something for the future. Someone correct me if I'm mistaken.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Rojas is more of a pure sprinter than van Avermaet. Bole's racing in the Tour de Pologne and Paris-Nice suggests he can get over a bunch of bumps, but his role would likely be similar to Rojas'. He could viably limit losses if he had a good lead from bonus seconds, but with Sanremo around the corner there is always likely to be a bunch of sprinters better than Bole there to take those away.

 

[ingsve]

Hey, I very much like the climber friendly parcours! The more MTF's the better for me!

Well, when there are too few MTFs I miss them too but lately things have gotten a little out of hand with every single stage race almost being catered towards the pure climber. I just want some variety.