Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 9th - 15th March

[Lanark]

You can win in Tirreno and be good at MSR and P-R in one season. Just look at Cancellara. He won Montepaschi Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico, Milan-San Remo and a silver medal at Paris-Roubaix in 2008.

He's not making it his goal to win, but if he's in a position to win it I doubt he would give it away.

Yeah, but you could clearly see that Cancellara's best form was gone by Paris-Roubaix, Gilbert wants to go all the way to LBL, you can't ride every race to win from now till then if you want to have any chance of winning LBL.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah, but you could clearly see that Cancellara's best form was gone by Paris-Roubaix, Gilbert wants to go all the way to LBL, you can't ride every race to win from now till then if you want to have any chance of winning LBL.

But there's no Boonen at LBL to stop Gilbert from sprinting to gold(i.e. Valverde)

Philippe wasn't in top form at Montepaschi, but he still beat the likes of Cunego, Cancellara and Ballan. And Montepaschi has a steep finish.

 

[Lanark]

But there's no Boonen at LBL to stop Gilbert from sprinting to gold(i.e Valverde)

But if Gilbert isn't in top shape he won't be sprinting for 1st place. The only thing that resembled a sprint in the last 10 years was the 2006 edition.

 

[El Pistolero]

But if Gilbert isn't in top shape he won't be sprinting for 1st place. The only thing that resembled a sprint in the last 10 years was the 2006 edition.

sprint with a small group.

Pretty much every recent edition had a small group at the very end and when the sprint started they lost the seconds not before.

Only 2009 was an incredible solo.

2008 Paris-Roubaix was in a group with just 3 people.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That finish in Macerata is where Ignatiev won last year, that's certainly one for the climbers (except when you win from an early break, like Ignatiev did)

The course seems to be designed for a rider on a team that does well at team time trials, who can time trial quite well himself, and climb a bit... hmm, now who could that be? An Italian clad in green, maybe?

I wouldn't overrate the finish in Macerata that much, it was also in the Tirreno 2006 which Dekker won (and therefore I have crystal clear memory of that one) and then it was a 20 men groupssprint

 

[theyoungest]

I wouldn't overrate the finish in Macerata that much, it was also in the Tirreno 2006 which Dekker won (and therefore I have crystal clear memory of that one) and then it was a 20 men groupssprint

Still, you said there was nothing for the climbers this year. I seem to remember only climbers being in front on that finish last year. I mean, Cancellara won't like it.

 

[El Pistolero]

Even Gilbert isn't always on form I remember him going for a Tour de Suisse stage win last year, that didn't quite work out. But here it will be the question if he wants to go for the overall, I think not, but if he wants to it's his for the taking.

And Romandie in 2009 I think. Disastrous.

 

[Lanark]

sprint with a small group.

Pretty much every recent edition had a small group at the very end and when the sprint started they lost the seconds not before.

Only 2009 was an incredible solo.

2008 Paris-Roubaix was in a group with just 3 people.

Yes, and every time that small group consisted of the very best classic riders who were all in their best shape. If Gilbert isn't in his best shape, he won't be in such a select group, hence, he should save his strength now, and not target the overall in Tirreno.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes, and every time that small group consisted of the very best classic riders who were all in their best shape. If Gilbert isn't in his best shape, he won't be in such a select group, hence, he should save his strength now, and not target the overall in Tirreno.

He's not targeting, but I think we all know how many seconds Gilbert can take in a sprint finish

And by the looks of the stages, there's going to be a lot of uphill sprints. Some might be too steep for Phil, but he'll hang on.

Gilbert is always in good form at MSR(he attacks every year at the Poggio) and LBL. He can do it, no worries.

 

[Lanark]

He's not targeting, but I think we all know how many seconds Gilbert can take in a sprint finish

And by the looks of the stages, there's going to be a lot of uphill sprints. Some might be too steep for Phil, but he'll hang on.

Gilbert is always in good form at MSR(he attacks every year at the Poggio) and LBL. He can do it, no worries.

In the years Gilbert was great in MSR (i.e. actually launch an impressive attack on the Poggio) he never raced the hilly classics. So no, Gilbert has never been in good/great shape during this period (and you certainly need to have great shape to win the Tirreno) all the way to LBL. In fact, he didn't even finish Paris-Nice the last two years.

This Tirreno has a team time trial, two very difficult uphill finishes, and an individual time trial. Besides that, it's an extremely nervous race, you have to focus all the time to stay in the front not to lose your GC placing in on the dozens of crashes every year. In other words, to win the Tirreno you have to be in great shape, and very motivated to ride a good GC. There is no way that doesn't exact a toll in the races to come.

 

[El Pistolero]

In the years Gilbert was great in MSR (i.e. actually launch an impressive attack on the Poggio) he never raced the hilly classics. So no, Gilbert has never been in good/great shape during this period (and you certainly need to have great shape to win the Tirreno) all the way to LBL. In fact, he didn't even finish Paris-Nice the last two years.

This Tirreno has a team time trial, two very difficult uphill finishes, and an individual time trial. Besides that, it's an extremely nervous race, you have to focus all the time to stay in the front not to lose your GC placing in on the dozens of crashes every year. In other words, to win the Tirreno you have to be in great shape, and very motivated to ride a good GC. There is no way that doesn't exact a toll in the races to come.

That's because Paris-Nice 2008/2009 was way too mountainous. Why do you think he's skipping Paris-Nice in favour of T-A now.

He was pretty good last year at MSR.

And anyway, Oscar Freire won T-A and showed good form in MSR as well. If you don't do good at T-A then you won't do good at MSR(unless you're hiding of course).

If Gilbert has shown anything, it's that he can hold a long peak form. If he should follow your advice there also wouldn't be any reason to ride the Ronde van Vlaanderen, but he will.

 

[Lanark]

That's because Paris-Nice 2008/2009 was way too mountainous. Why do you think he's skipping Paris-Nice in favour of T-A now.

He was pretty good last year at MSR.

He is skipping Paris-Nice in favour of Tirreno not because he wants to get a result at Tirreno, but because the only way to win MSR is to ride Tirreno.

He was pretty good at MSR last year, but never in the shape to win. If he wants to win Tirreno he has to be in better shape during this period than he was the last two years. I don't see why he would risk that, assuming he wants to win Liège.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Still, you said there was nothing for the climbers this year. I seem to remember only climbers being in front on that finish last year. I mean, Cancellara won't like it.

The edition Cancellara won, he was in topform, and that was an edition with Montelupone
Montelupone is about 10 times as hard as Macerate and Chieti, and still Cancellara won and finished top 5 on Montelupone.

However, I don't think the Tirreno is a goal for Cancellara this year so it doesn't really matter.
In topform however, I'm 100% certain he can handle things like Macerata or Chieti, they are easy compared to Montelupone

 

[El Pistolero]

He is skipping Paris-Nice in favour of Tirreno not because he wants to get a result at Tirreno, but because the only way to win MSR is to ride Tirreno.

He was pretty good at MSR last year, but never in the shape to win. If he wants to win Tirreno he has to be in better shape during this period than he was the last two years. I don't see why he would risk that, assuming he wants to win Liège.

I never said he wants to win it? If he's in a position to take a win, he will take it. That's just the way he is.

And Haussler rode Paris-Nice in 2009 by the way, you don't need to ride Tirreno to be able to win MSR. The chance of winning MSR is so small anyway that he might as well give it his all in Tirreno.

 

[Lanark]

I never said he wants to win it? If he's in a position to take a win, he will take it. That's just the way he is.

Like I said, unless you want to win it, you'll never be in the position to win it. This race is far too difficult and most of all stressful to soft pedal for a couple of stages and see were you end up.

And Haussler rode Paris-Nice in 2009 by the way, you don't need to ride Tirreno to be able to win MSR. The chance of winning MSR is so small anyway that he might as well give it his all in Tirreno.

What are you trying to argue here? Nobody is saying you can't win MSR without riding Tirreno, only that it hurts your chances immensely. But back to the topic, Gilber specifically said that he is riding Tirreno as preparation for MSR, to see if this works better:

"Daarnaast heb ik beslist om Tirreno-Adriatico te rijden als voorbereiding op Milaan-Sanremo. Na zeven keer Parijs-Nice wilde ik eens veranderen en neem ik voor de tweede keer deel aan de Italiaanse voorbereidingskoers. We zullen zien of het een betere voorbereiding op Milaan-Sanremo is", gaat Gilbert verder.''

 

[El Pistolero]

Like I said, unless you want to win it, you'll never be in the position to win it. This race is far too difficult and most of all stressful to soft pedal for a couple of stages and see were you end up.What are you trying to argue here? Nobody is saying you can't win MSR without riding Tirreno, only that it hurts your chances immensely. But back to the topic, Gilber specifically said that he is riding Tirreno as preparation for MSR, to see if this works better:

"Daarnaast heb ik beslist om Tirreno-Adriatico te rijden als voorbereiding op Milaan-Sanremo. Na zeven keer Parijs-Nice wilde ik eens veranderen en neem ik voor de tweede keer deel aan de Italiaanse voorbereidingskoers. We zullen zien of het een betere voorbereiding op Milaan-Sanremo is", gaat Gilbert verder.''

Who doesn't ride Tirreno as a preparation for Milan-San Remo? It's the whole purpose of the race.

 

[Ferminal]

If Gilbert has shown anything, it's that he can hold a long peak form.

2010:

Stage 1 Vuelta a Espana 28/08/2010

to

Giro di Lombardia 16/10/2010

50 days


2011:

Montepaschi Strade Bianche 05/03/2011

to

Liege-Bastogne-Liege 24/04/2011

51 days

Sure, why not...

 

[Lanark]

Who doesn't ride Tirreno as a preparation for Milan-San Remo? It's the whole purpose of the race.

Retorical question? Guys like Gesink, Basso, Rodriguez, Evans, Scarponi, Garzelli, Nibali etc.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

yeah but guys like Gesink, Rodriguez, Evans ride it as preparation for the ardennes classics

 

[theyoungest]

The edition Cancellara won, he was in topform, and that was an edition with Montelupone
Montelupone is about 10 times as hard as Macerate and Chieti, and still Cancellara won and finished top 5 on Montelupone.

However, I don't think the Tirreno is a goal for Cancellara this year so it doesn't really matter.
In topform however, I'm 100% certain he can handle things like Macerata or Chieti, they are easy compared to Montelupone

But that wasn't your point. You said there's nothing for the climbers, this is definitely a finish for the climbers.

 

[El Pistolero]

Retorical question? Guys like Gesink, Basso, Rodriguez, Evans, Scarponi, Garzelli, Nibali etc.

Those two tried last year. But failed.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Those two tried last year. But failed.

if by fail you mean win TA then yes, Garzelli failed.

If you mean msr, well I suspect TA was a bit more of a realistic goal for garzelli

 

[El Pistolero]

if by fail you mean win TA then yes, Garzelli failed.

If you mean msr, well I suspect TA was a bit more of a realistic goal for garzelli

They tried at San Remo.

Nibali attacked on the descend of the poggio, but got countered and dropped by Pozzato.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

They tried at San Remo.

Nibali attacked on the descend of the poggio, but got countered and dropped by Pozzato.

that wasn't the point. The point was, guys like that target TA. I Highly doubt MSR was a goal for them, rather 'might as well have a go if I'm here' sort of thing.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

TV RAI live I believe

From what I gleaned listening to the Strade Bianche commentators
RAI TV will being doing Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 Live and have Savoldellion the back of the motorbike doing his well informed comments.