Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Discussion - Who will win?

[ianstannard]

OPQS have put in a very good TTT performance, teams like Tinkoff and Sky are 24 seconds behind, can Contador, Porte still catch up with the OPQS riders?

 

[rghysens]

OPQS have put in a very good TTT performance, teams like Tinkoff and Sky are 24 seconds behind, can Contador, Porte still catch up with the OPQS riders?

Yes.
The final of the stage to guardiagrele is so difficult a good climber can take a couple of minutes out of lesser climbers. And I think Contador (and Quintana) or still better climbers than Kwiatkowski.
The stage before is also difficult, but I think Kwiatkowski and/or Uran won't loose much time there, because of th nature of the climbs.

 

[ianstannard]

Is Porte likely to podium after this team time trial?

 

[ILovecycling]

Is Porte likely to podium after this team time trial?

Its the same like before this stage.Mountains and hills will decide,everything can happen.

 

[Jelantik]

Is Porte likely to podium after this team time trial?

if he can repeat his performance at TDF where he slaved for Froome but still came in second on the mountain stage, then yes. He can smoke everyone with that form. But so far Evans and Valverde have been get the better of him. Now we'll see if he can fend off kwiat, uran, contador and quintana.

 

[Jelantik]

I wouldn't say Van Den Broeck season is gone for him yet, his goal is (like always) the Tour. Which is still a ways a way. Definitely don't expect him to set the roads of France alight, Between 5th and 10th at best. But he could still get a decent enough result.

If we get to Romandie and he still isn't showing much in the way of form, at that point I would agree his season would be for the most part gone for him.

van den broeck has been out-shined by mollema. And even Ten dam. He should shoot for giro or vuelta.

 

[Afrank]

van den broeck has been out-shined by mollema. And even Ten dam. He should shoot for giro or vuelta.

Agree, like most other Tour obsessed rider, he should change things up and target something else. But it will never happen. There's a reason we call these guys July only riders.

 

[karlboss]

not kreuziger as dark horse?

Not dark enough

For dark horses I think stage 4 holds their hopes. It is the only stage which lends itself to a surprise victory gaining enough time to offset the outright favourites matching strength vs strength in the TT and on stage 5, but it'll take a lot of commitment and luck, and will have a lot to do with the right combination in the break. I'm hoping the big teams use it as a dress rehearsal for knocking off favoured teams at bigger races, and we get to see all the number 2 guys on teams feature.

 

[peloton]

Kwia has this, the podium order will be interesting.

 

[Jelantik]

Kwia has this, the podium order will be interesting.

do you think 24 seconds is enough to fend of quintana and contador in the mountain though? it's really steep though. I would incline to think so, but I don't know how Quintana's form is and where Contador as well. The last time i saw, Contador was also struggling to keep up at the finish line, and so does Porte. This definitely opens up an interesting weekend.

 

[jaylew]

do you think 24 seconds is enough to fend of quintana and contador in the mountain though?

It's really more than that if you consider the time Kwia is likely to gain in the ITT. Honestly I'd love for Nairo or AC (or even Uran) to take the win but it's going to be tough.

 

[ianstannard]

I think that Kwia and Uran might have a hard time as they don't have any real support. Sky at least has Nieve and Wiggins to support Porte

 

[karlboss]

I think that Kwia and Uran might have a hard time as they don't have any real support. Sky at least has Nieve and Wiggins to support Porte

In terms of support Porte if you only list Nieve and Wiggins you are selling the team short. Personally considering the route I think OPQS should concentrate on Kwiatkowski and then his support is Uran, Poels and Martin which is plenty if Kwiatkowski is good enough.
I think Kwiatkowski is very well placed if he is indeed in better form than last year and he's learned the lesson of pacing himself which he didn't do well last year.

 

[the sceptic]

I think that Kwia and Uran might have a hard time as they don't have any real support. Sky at least has Nieve and Wiggins to support Porte

Doesnt matter too much. Uran and Kwia can just ride the sky train anyway. The question will be what happens when Porte goes on the attack.

 

[gospina]

Kwiat was leading the Cavendish train today, so that makes me think he isn't the protected rider. Uran made comments several times that he lost a lot of energy leading Cavendish when they were both @Sky. Not today

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Kwiat was leading the Cavendish train today, so that makes me think he isn't the protected rider. Uran made comments several times that he lost a lot of energy leading Cavendish when they were both @Sky. Not today

Pathetic development.

 

[sucotash]

Kwiat is able to help in leadouts, Uran I do not think so. That's why Kwiato was used in Cav's train. It has nothing to do with the team leadership.

Tomorrow a guy like Kwiatkowski can gain some more seconds in the GC

 

[Escarabajo]

Pathetic development.

I am trying to find reasons not to dislike Cavendish so much. But it is getting worse.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I am trying to find reasons not to dislike Cavendish so much. But it is getting worse.

Where the hell are all these great lead out men: Inhale-jet, Renshaw etc. This was a flat stage ffs.

Using Kwia at the business end of a bunch sprint is ridiculous.