Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Gotta say I like Dumoulin's demeanor after today's stage. No nonsense. No giving up either. Just saying he was good but that it's gonna be really hard to win the Giro.

 

[Stella0596]

Re:

Gotta say I like Dumoulin's demeanor after today's stage. No nonsense. No giving up either. Just saying he was good but that it's gonna be really hard to win the Giro.

Yes, I really like how he's focused and realistic. I remember last year there was always something going on, more frustration and saying stupid stuff after the race (like he wanted Nibali to drop off the podium). Of course he then was in the pink jersey but still, a lot has changed.

 

[Tonton]

Still a good ride for Dumoulin, considering the times recorded by the guys ahead of him today. 90"-120" sounds about right. That's not enough if Yates keeps it up, methinks. But first things first: tomorrow is no easy stage, some may not recover after the big efforts today. A lot can still happen. I'm not writing him off.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ofcourse it's a good ride, and a good giro until now.
He's leading after the Zoncolan against all the guys you expected to be his main challengers. And that would be superb with a TT still to come.
The main problem is that a superb Simon Yates showed up and he's 1:24 in front of Dumoulin.

The more I look back on that the more it's clear. There's still a few positives though

-He's clearly not getting worse up until now, while some of his opponents are
-Froome is back, that might sound strange as a positive, but the Sky train will show itself more now, and that's to Dumoulins advantage
-The Zoncolan is out of his way, and he has a TT to look forward to

the negatives

-Froome is back. If he's really in top shape in the last week that might still become a problem
-Yates doesn't look to get any worse either. He needs that to happen in order to stand a chance because..
-If not, he might not be leading after the TT, or have a really slim bonus.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Ofcourse it's a good ride, and a good giro until now.
He's leading after the Zoncolan against all the guys you expected to be his main challengers. And that would be superb with a TT still to come.
The main problem is that a superb Simon Yates showed up and he's 1:24 in front of Dumoulin.

The more I look back on that the more it's clear. There's still a few positives though

-He's clearly not getting worse up until now, while some of his opponents are
-Froome is back, that might sound strange as a positive, but the Sky train will show itself more now, and that's to Dumoulins advantage
-The Zoncolan is out of his way, and he has a TT to look forward to

the negatives

-Froome is back. If he's really in top shape in the last week that might still become a problem
-Yates doesn't look to get any worse either. He needs that to happen in order to stand a chance because..
-If not, he might not be leading after the TT, or have a really slim bonus.

Excellent assessment. Yates is clearly a problem for Dumoulin, if there's a handful of seconds between the two and all these mountains left, at his current level, Simon says I win. Froome is an enigma...I couldn't help thinking "WTF am I watching?", total disbelief. 6th best Zonc time ever. I don't know. I'm still scratching my head and other parts of my body. Tom needs a strong stage tomorrow, no time-loss, and BigMig everyone on Tuesday. Then we'll count the casualties and look ahead.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He'll almost need an Indurain level time trial right now. Kinda like the Burgos one in the Vuelta were he pulled 1' on bodnar (2nd guy) and 1'58 on Aru who was still in the top 10 in that time trial.

Basically Tom needs that kind of time trial and Yates needs to do less good than top 10

 

[Tonton]

After a rest-day, many things can happen...

 

[Red Rick]

Really have the idea that he's just not as skinny as last year.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Really? I think he's actually skinnier.

Also think last year he would have lost more on Zonc.

 

[Stella0596]

Re:

Really have the idea that he's just not as skinny as last year.

I've looked at quite some photo's, but I don't think there's much of a difference. I think the pink jersey does make him look slimmer but other than that there's not a notable difference for me.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Really? I think he's actually skinnier.

Also think last year he would have lost more on Zonc.

Don't see how this is better than Oropa.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

He'll almost need an Indurain level time trial right now. Kinda like the Burgos one in the Vuelta were he pulled 1' on bodnar (2nd guy) and 1'58 on Aru who was still in the top 10 in that time trial.

Basically Tom needs that kind of time trial and Yates needs to do less good than top 10

For what it's worth, I just took another look at the ITT and its profile. The first part is slightly downhill, which is good for him, maybe a 55X11 or more (Does he go 56?), and the second part has some ripples. Time will be lost in the end when big gears plus inclines take a toll and there's 5 km to go. I disagree with the posts arguing that the course doesn't favor him. Seconds per km are not a cookie-cutter way to estimate/predict IMO. More like 120 than 90 I think.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Really? I think he's actually skinnier.

Also think last year he would have lost more on Zonc.

Don't see how this is better than Oropa.

Oropa is like the perfect climb for him, there's been no similar thing in this Giro.

 

[kiszol]

Re: Re:

Really? I think he's actually skinnier.

Also think last year he would have lost more on Zonc.

Don't see how this is better than Oropa.

Oropa is like the perfect climb for him, there's been no similar thing in this Giro.

Prato Nevoso will be something like Oropa.
Maybe Tom can try something on that day.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I do not understand the blind assumption Yates will lose anything more than 1'30.

It's flat, which is better than rolling terrain to limit the damage, it's only 34km, and Yates is in the form of his life. Expecting him to lose 4km/s is ridiculous.

It's not a blind assumption. It also depends on his recovery and how he comes out of the rest day. I could be wrong but to me Dumoulin looks a bit off last year's form but it has also been a more chaotic race. Time bonuses could decide this race. Dumoulin made last year's race look harder than it should have been with silly time losses. I still think he is in a good position but he will need a superb TT to stay in it. The thing in Yates favor if anything is his team. They have looked the best in the race so far and Yates continues to climb well. See how well Yates and Dumoulin can now withstand some pressure from Astana and Sky which will surely come. Poels looked much better yesterday.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's funny and beautiful about cycling, that fans can look at the same race, but have totally and wildy different views. Even after watching the same.
After today, I have no doubt whatsoever that Dumoulin has, at LEAST, the same form as last years Giro.

Yet I read a lot of people saying Dumoulin is off / slightly worse. I think it's mainly the Oropa win and the less stiff competition that made that impression.

The numbers I've seen from Velon surely don;t back it up though.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

It's funny and beautiful about cycling, that fans can look at the same race, but have totally and wildy different views. Even after watching the same.
After today, I have no doubt whatsoever that Dumoulin has, at LEAST, the same form as last years Giro.

Yet I read a lot of people saying Dumoulin is off / slightly worse. I think it's mainly the Oropa win and the less stiff competition that made that impression.

The numbers I've seen from Velon surely don;t back it up though.

I actually think only losing 37 seconds to Froome on Zonc is more impressive than Oropa even.

That said, there were gaps in Dumo's armour in the final week last year, and while it seems he's had a slightly more lowkey build-up this year, he's gonna be facing a top form Froome and an excellent Yates instead of Nibali and a terrible Quintana

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah, but that's the point, he's actually looking better as the Giro goes on this year. So I think he's also going to be stronger in the 3rd week than last year.

Problem is, so is Froome, and that's going to make people have different views

 

[Bardamu]

Assuming he's taking 2-and a bit- on Yates in the TT, it's still going to be tight. But there's a good chance that he's gonna take some time on Yates in one of the hilly stages. Dumoulin is getting better and Yates is going to have one bad day at least.

 

[Tonton]

I took some flak for my statement but stick to my guns: Tom Dumoulin is the best GT rider right now. From 70 to 44 km of ITT is a huge disadvantage for him in this Giro, or any GT, routes are made to keep it close, get TV ratings and money coming, not to necessarily make the best rider win. It's a business. And here we are, and it worked.

 

[Jagartrott]

It's the bonus seconds that are really hurting him now. He has taken 6, Yates 35 (I think).
Still, I can't believe Yates will continue being this strong also in the third week. Dumoulin has to hope for wind during the TT, that will tilt the scales more in his favour.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

It's funny and beautiful about cycling, that fans can look at the same race, but have totally and wildy different views. Even after watching the same.
After today, I have no doubt whatsoever that Dumoulin has, at LEAST, the same form as last years Giro.

Yet I read a lot of people saying Dumoulin is off / slightly worse. I think it's mainly the Oropa win and the less stiff competition that made that impression.

The numbers I've seen from Velon surely don;t back it up though.

Of course Dumoulin has at least last year's form. Same goes for Pinot and Pozzo. The outlier here is Simon Yates and not all the competition. Froome was going backwards until yesterday when we saw the best Froome in ages to whom Tom lost 37 sec on the hardest climb in the world. It's normal. What is not normal, or let's say unexpected is the way Yates is climbing day in day out. He is so charged he forgot to dump his water bottle and the rain jacket while chasing Froome up the Zonc. Let us wait and see for how long he can do this. Nevertheless Tom is doing a great Giro.

 

[Oude Geuze]

Re: Re:

It's funny and beautiful about cycling, that fans can look at the same race, but have totally and wildy different views. Even after watching the same.
After today, I have no doubt whatsoever that Dumoulin has, at LEAST, the same form as last years Giro.

Yet I read a lot of people saying Dumoulin is off / slightly worse. I think it's mainly the Oropa win and the less stiff competition that made that impression.

The numbers I've seen from Velon surely don;t back it up though.

Of course Dumoulin has at least last year's form. Same goes for Pinot and Pozzo. The outlier here is Simon Yates and not all the competition. Froome was going backwards until yesterday when we saw the best Froome in ages to whom Tom lost 37 sec on the hardest climb in the world. It's normal. What is not normal, or let's say unexpected is the way Yates is climbing day in day out. He is so charged he forgot to dump his water bottle and the rain jacket while chasing Froome up the Zonc. Let us wait and see for how long he can do this. Nevertheless Tom is doing a great Giro.

lol yeah, Yates is so fired up and detirmined it’s scary. Stone cold, breathing through the nose, no lateral movement on the bike and with a stern countenance. Reminds me a lot of the way LA used to ride (not clinically related, only appearance)

 

[yaco]

My view is Dumoulin is at the same level as last year - Reckon he could have ridden the 2018 TDF at the same level and be in a better position.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Good try, but no podium this year.

Climbers did well by roasting him