Tour 2012: Route Rumours / Our wishes

[Swede1]

I see Contador, Evans, and Menchov as the prime favorites with Wiggins (Froome), Nibali/Basso, Schlecks, and Sanchez a level behind them.

 

[WorldsGreatest]

why the final itt on the penultimate again????? move that to 4 days earlier and have a MTF on the penultimate stage for pure action....

 

[El Pistolero]

A few other observations.

Surely Nibali should do Tour and Basso Giro now.

Valverde should do well, though he usually holds his own in tts rather than owns them so will lose time there.

But hes one of the best in the world at hills and descents, so some opportunities for him to put time into others, and not too many mountains for them to put time into him.

And heres a wildcard im going to throw in.

Fabian Cancellara.

Will Cancellara have a go at GC for once? Yes it seems way off but then he won that TDS and was the best rider in the hilliest WC course of the last decade.

Someone once told him, i forget who that if he slimmed down a bit, he could try and challenge for a gc one time.

And i still believe he can own everyone including Panzerwagen in the tt when he really wants to.



I agree with much of that.

As much as I love Froome, I think Contador, Menchov, Evans, Samu are on another level from what he and Cobo showed at the Vuelta.

He could be up there but the above will have too much. For this year anyway.

Also a large reason for his success was that everyone else was getting exhausted by the heat, and he digs it, you know coming from Kenya and all.

I dont know that France will have such heatwaves, though it has happened, and if it comes on the right stages, then could be very good for Froome.

That was Bjarne Riis.

 

[roundabout]

Who would you favour over a Wiggins or Froome with their Vuelta form on this ridiculous parcours? Contador, who might be banned, Evans... and... and...

Apparently there's enough mountains for climbers to recover the lost time.

As long as they go for it.

 

[airstream]

It looks funny actually. With Pailheres and col de la Madeleine in the beginnings of the stages... Hopefully they decided to organize Bagnere-de-Luchon stage with the finish after Port de Bales. The interesting situation may happen: none of HC climbs will be even penultimate on the stage.

 

[PCutter]

Who would you favour over a Wiggins or Froome with their Vuelta form on this ridiculous parcours? Contador, who might be banned, Evans... and... and...

Refer to Hitch's post above.

I think Wiggins can podium btw, just not both.

 

[webvan]

Wiggins and Froome can put time on all the GC contenders in the TT since Bertie has lost his 2009 ITT legs..they will need their Vuelta form though...or his Dauphine form for Wiggins. Without the ridiculously steep Angliru he would have won the Vuelta. There'll be nothing half as steep on the next TDF, thankfully.

 

[The Hitch]

Who would you favour over a Wiggins or Froome with their Vuelta form on this ridiculous parcours? Contador, who might be banned, Evans... and... and...

Menchov and Samu.

Menchov has won some bad *** tts in the past.

And some similar mountain stages.

Actually Menchov Giro 09 form won a short mtf and a long tt.

Great to challenge Contador if hes off form.

As with Samu, obviously people will think "here he goes again" but if you look at it seriously, Samu beat even Menchov in the final Vuelta time trial in 2007 and won a mountain stage the day before.

He came 2nd to Millar, only by 5 seconds in 09 final tt.

So we know he can tt when he wants to, even though he hasnt really showed it in the Tour because 10 he was heavily injured and 11 he had nothing to fight for.

And we know he can descend. Even though he didnt show it so much this year, him and Contador put maybe 10-15 seconds if not 20 into the others on the Pinerolo descent, and then he did do a good descent of Galibier reaching Contadors group about 3 minutes before everyone else did.

And we know he can ride hills well. Finished in the main group on Muur Bretagne and Superbesse, while Schleck lost time, and came 3rd in Fleche Wallone. Add to that perofrmances in races like Liege and Lombardy.

So whats left is the 1 or 2 mountains.

Contador can drop him there. Schleck can but then this doesnt look like Schlecks Tour.

Who else?

Who else is going to drop Samu in the mountains? Those were the only 2 that did so in 2010.

In fact he might be able to get time on a lot of riders as well.

That why I think Samu, also might be good for this route.

 

[The Hitch]

Wiggins and Froome can put time on all the GC contenders in the TT since Bertie has lost his 2009 ITT...they will need their Vuelta form though...or his Dauphine form for Wiggins. Without the ridiculously steep Angliru he would have won the Vuelta. There'll be nothing half as steep on the next TDF, thankfully.

His tt seemed all right in the Giro where he came 3rd in the final tt despite starting to celebrate about 3k out and riding the last km with his hands in the air.

The tt was pan flat btw (to all those who bizzarely claim Contador is only good on up hill tts, despite the fact that Annnency 09 was 90% flat and he was up at every checkpoint)

 

[Parrulo]

His tt seemed all right in the Giro where he came 3rd in the final tt despite starting to celebrate about 3k out and riding the last km with his hands in the air.

The tt was pan flat btw (to all those who bizzarely claim Contador is only good on up hill tts, despite the fact that Annnency 09 was 90% flat and he was up at every checkpoint)

pfff silly hitch claiming that there are itt's outside of july . . .

this route is horrible it is lacking some serious mountains. only thing i like about it are the itt's and some descent finishes.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Menchov and Samu.

It's obviously a good parcours for Menchov, but he hasn't displayed form at the level of Froome and Wiggins at the Vuelta for some considerable time. He was reasonable but anonymous at the Giro this year and not as good as either of the British riders at the Vuelta and those were his seasons targets. So while he'll certainly be happy with that route, I don't see how he could be favoured over a Vuelta level Wiggins. He'll lose time to him in the time trials and while it's not impossible for him to gain some back on the climbs, it's a lot to ask.

As for Sanchez, again it's not a terrible parcours for him, but he's not at Wiggins level in a time trial. And there isn't enough really tough climbing for him to make the most of his advantage when the road goes uphill. If there was just a little bit more in the way of steep climbing, I'd favour him over a Vuelta level Wiggins, but without it, I think you are doing a bit of wishful thinking. There's no way Wiggins drops him on the climbs if he's in form, but Wiggins can put quite a bit of time into him over 100km of TT. The Froome/Wiggins double act grimly grinding their way up the climbs behind him just fills me with trepidation.

So yes, I'd include those guys in a list of favourites, but I just can't see any reason why they'd be bigger favourites, despite Sanchez in particular being a stronger rider.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Actually Menchov Giro 09 form won a short mtf and a long tt.

Actually it was a long MTF, just a very consistent one in a very short stage; Alpe di Siusi is 25km at just under 6%. In week 1, such a consistent climb with no great variation in gradient isn't as likely to break things up as it would later in the race.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It's obviously a good parcours for Menchov, but he hasn't displayed form at the level of Froome and Wiggins at the Vuelta for some considerable time. He was reasonable but anonymous at the Giro this year and not as good as either of the British riders at the Vuelta and those were his seasons targets.

Hard to read the end of the Giro since Menchov had no reason to be aggressive on Angliru because he had Cobo up the road, after that he just rode for Cobo. Menchov probably had more in the tank in the Vuelta, but stupid unnecessary time loss in week 1 cost him; that's probably the only reason we're talking about Cobo as a GT winner and not Menchov as a 3-time Vuelta winner.

As for the inevitability of his losing time in the ITT to Wiggins; Wiggins lost 2 minutes to the Russian in Sestri Levante, in the hardest ITT we've seen in a GT in recent years. Normally I'd back Wiggins to beat him, but never say never. Especially as Menchov's won the Giro and Vuelta, but never the Tour. The motivation could be very different.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Refer to Hitch's post above.

I think Wiggins can podium btw, just not both.

I don't think that both can podium, simply because one will end up sacrificing their chances for the other and the field is too deep at the Tour for them to get away with that. But I do think that either can podium if they produce their Vuelta form, and unfortunately either could win if Contador gets banned (reasonably likely), if Menchov's form this year is now the best he has (reasonably likely) and if Evans has a bit of bad luck or has a bad day (which he has done in every GT bar one).

Now it's entirely possible that Froome will never produce that sort of form again in his life and for that matter, Wiggins could now have an off year just as he did the year after his last good GT performance. But assuming their Vuelta form for the sake of argument, its as if some idiot put the Sky team in charge of the ASO as far as parcours is concerned.

 

[The Hitch]

It's obviously a good parcours for Menchov, but he hasn't displayed form at the level of Froome and Wiggins at the Vuelta for some considerable time. He was reasonable but anonymous at the Giro this year and not as good as either of the British riders at the Vuelta and those were his seasons targets. So while he'll certainly be happy with that route, I don't see how he could be favoured over a Vuelta level Wiggins. He'll lose time to him in the time trials and while it's not impossible for him to gain some back on the climbs, it's a lot to ask.

As for Sanchez, again it's not a terrible parcours for him, but he's not at Wiggins level in a time trial. And there isn't enough really tough climbing for him to make the most of his advantage when the road goes uphill. If there was just a little bit more in the way of steep climbing, I'd favour him over a Vuelta level Wiggins, but without it, I think you are doing a bit of wishful thinking. There's no way Wiggins drops him on the climbs if he's in form, but Wiggins can put quite a bit of time into him over 100km of TT. The Froome/Wiggins double act grimly grinding their way up the climbs behind him just fills me with trepidation.

So yes, I'd include those guys in a list of favourites, but I just can't see any reason why they'd be bigger favourites, despite Sanchez in particular being a stronger rider.

Well there would be a few hilly stages too for Samu to get a few seconds.

+ the descent finish. Especially if Nibali is there i think The Shark could lead the way and Samu follow.

Besides what makes you think Wiggins will get so much time in the tts.

Yes hes done well at the worlds, but those are different. For one gt riders dont ride them so we have no comparison points, and secondly they are 1 day efforts.

In the 2009 Tour he got 30 seconds on Lance in a 50 minute tt. He lost 40 seconds to Contador.

Last year he came 10th, though wind complicated it.

In this years Vuelta people say he underperformed, because they expected him to do better, but then why? Maybe that was his real form.

the only tt he has won in a grand Tour was the 9km one in the Giro last year where he beet Cadel and Brent Bookewalter by 1 second.

And 9km is a lot closer to his specialist 4km than 50km.

As for Froome, his best tt has come in the Vuelta where he came 2nd. Samu has also come 2nd in a Vuelta tt. He has also won 1. So why does Froome have to be a much better tter than Samu.

You point to Wiggins and Froomes Vuelta form becuase they podiumed but Samu has also podiumed the Vuelta twice. Only he was in Vueltas agains Menchov Sastre, then against Valverde Evans and Basso.

Friggins faced JJ CObo and Bauke Mollema and Woet Poels.

Maybe if you put Valverde Evans and Basso into this years Vuelta, Wiggins and Froome would not have been so impressive.

 

[El Pistolero]

I don't think that both can podium, simply because one will end up sacrificing their chances for the other and the field is too deep at the Tour for them to get away with that. But I do think that either can podium if they produce their Vuelta form, and unfortunately either could win if Contador gets banned (reasonably likely), if Menchov's form this year is now the best he has (reasonably likely) and if Evans has a bit of bad luck or has a bad day (which he has done in every GT bar one).

Now it's entirely possible that Froome will never produce that sort of form again in his life and for that matter, Wiggins could now have an off year just as he did the year after his last good GT performance. But assuming their Vuelta form for the sake of argument, its as if some idiot put the Sky team in charge of the ASO as far as parcours is concerned.

It's also possible that he will be able to produce that form again, but that form might not be nearly good enough to match someone like Contador. It was a great performance and a big surprise, but let's not forget that is was only the Vuelta: the least of the Grand Tours by a long shot.

But hey, top 10, why not?

 

[Parrulo]

Maybe if you put Valverde Evans and Basso into this years Vuelta, Wiggins and Froome would not have been so impressive.

nibali, scarponi and anton not under performing would be enough imo

also a samu/nibali/contador/evans alliance on the descents would be a nightmare for wiggins, froome and menchov

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

You point to Wiggins and Froomes Vuelta form becuase they podiumed but Samu has also podiumed the Vuelta twice. Only he was in Vueltas agains Menchov Sastre, then against Valverde Evans and Basso

I point to Wiggins (or Froome) because of the ridiculous parcours, which heavily emphasises their strengths and minimises Sanchez's biggest strength, ie his climbing. And because Menchov, who shares Wiggins strengths, hasn't shown that sort of form in a long time.

Menchov a few years ago is a bigger favourite, but it's not the Menchov of a few years ago who will be riding and we simply can't know if he can get that form back. Sanchez is a bigger favourite if there are some more opportunities for the climbers, but there aren't.

My argument isn't that Wiggins or his suddenly overperforming sidekick are clearly bigger favourites than those guys. After all, Froome has shown any talent in a GT precisely once and Wiggins has been good only twice and both are well capable of turning up and getting slaughtered. But I do think that if they produce their Vuelta form on that stupid parcours they aren't clearly smaller favourites either, not because they are better riders but because the parcours couldn't be better for them.

Sanchez has beaten Wiggins in a TT before and it's not inconceivable that he could do so again. But in general, if you see the two of them line up for a TT, your money is going on Wiggins unless you are Samu's mother.

 

[JRanton]

nibali, scarponi and anton not under performing would be enough imo

also a samu/nibali/contador/evans alliance on the descents would be a nightmare for wiggins, froome and menchov

Froome isn't bad on descents.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

nibali, scarponi and anton not under performing would be enough imo

On the Vuelta parcours is one thing. Anton and Scarponi in particular would be clubbed like baby seals on this alleged Tour route.

 

[The Hitch]

Sanchez has beaten Wiggins in a TT before and it's not inconceivable that he could do so again. But in general, if you see the two of them line up for a TT, your money is going on Wiggins unless you are Samu's mother.

Im not saying that Samu could beat wiggins in a tt but that he will limit his losses. There may not be many climbs but there are a few so climbing should not be totaly discounted, and on the few stages where climbing becomes important i expect Sammu to beat Wiggins.

point to Wiggins (or Froome) because of the ridiculous parcours, which heavily emphasises their strengths and minimises Sanchez's biggest strength, ie his climbing. And because Menchov, who shares Wiggins strengths, hasn't shown that sort of form in a long time.

Menchov a few years ago is a bigger favourite, but it's not the Menchov of a few years ago who will be riding and we simply can't know if he can get that form back. Sanchez is a bigger favourite if there are some more opportunities for the climbers, but there aren't.

.

Menchov 10 came 3rd in the Tour.

Evans 10 showed probably as little in gts as Menchov in 11 and look what happened the year after.

As others have said Dennis was probably the strongest rider in the Vuelta. He came 5th overall despite not going for it as his teammate was the overall leader.

Its not like Menchov is suddenly passed it.

 

[rzombie1988]

I don't know how I feel about the course, mainly because I haven't seen the stage line-ups yet. Like always though, the riders make the race, not the course. I'm happy to see more ITT km's though.

As for favorites, well I'd have to pick Contador. Never bet against him at full strength.

If Contador's not there, then it depends on who rides. Would love to pick Menchov, but I don't think it's in him anymore. It would be quite the payback on the Tour organizers though if he could win. I never bet on Cadel and still won't. Wiggo is a possibility but I'll have to see his build up. Andy/Frank have no shot whatsoever. However, if this tour prompts them to finally work more on their time trials, I'll sacrifice boring races for that. If they come in with their normal form though, they will be humbled. If Gesink recovers, I may cheer for him or Samu. I want to see if Valverde will go for the tour as well and if Rujano could some how get in.

 

[The Hitch]

nibali, scarponi and anton not under performing would be enough imo

also a samu/nibali/contador/evans alliance on the descents would be a nightmare for wiggins, froome and menchov

Could include Valverde there as well.

But Forget the tag ons

Let the worlds 2 best gt descenders go for it on their own.

I include the letters gt so that you know who doesnt bring in his unwelcome "Gilbert is twice the descender of Nibali" comments.

 

[Parrulo]

Could include Valverde there as well.

But Forget the tag ons

Let the worlds 2 best gt descenders go for it on their own.

I include the letters gt so that you know who doesnt bring in his unwelcome "Gilbert is twice the descender of Nibali" comments.

lol

ya you are prolly right seeing samu vs nibali would prolly be better then samu and nibali vs the rest

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Im not saying that Samu could beat wiggins in a tt but that he will limit his losses. There may not be many climbs but there are a few so climbing should not be totaly discounted, and on the few stages where climbing becomes important i expect Sammu to beat Wiggins.

Sure, which is why I don't discount Sanchez.

Menchov 10 came 3rd in the Tour.

Evans 10 showed probably as little in gts as Menchov in 11 and look what happened the year after.

Sure, which is why I don't discount Menchov.