Tour 2018 stage 21: Houilles - Paris 116 km

[Robert5091]

Edition 105 of the Tour de France bids farewell with a traditional flat route. At 116 kilometres, stage 21 travels from Houilles to Paris to conclude with eight laps on the Champs-Élysées.

The first three riders on the line win time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds. The intermediate sprint (at kilometre 76) does not come with a time bonus, it’s a sprint for green jersey points.

The 21st stage of the 2018 Tour de France starts at 16:20 and the finish is expected around 19:09 – both local time

Not so much a stage more a coronation or epilogue.

From the rule book -

The race management and Commissaires’ Committee
may have to take the following measures for the finish
of the 21st stage on the Champs-Élysées in Paris:
• if the road surface of the Champs-Élysées has
become slippery before the riders reach it, then
the times may be taken for the first crossing of
the finish line;
• if the road surface of the Champs-Élysées
becomes slippery after the riders have already
begun racing on it, then the times may be taken
at the next crossing of the finishing line.
In both cases, the finish will be maintained. In
both cases, riders and sports managers will
be informed immediately. In any event, riders
must compete all of the circuits of the Champs-
Élysées to be ranked at the final finish. A single
car belonging to the sports managers will be
authorized on the circuit of the Champs-Élysées.
The second car will have to leave the circuit
before the first crossing of the finish line.

 

[Red Rick]

Vino.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Froome to attack from the start and win the stage with a 30 second advantage over the Tom while Thomas gets many mysterious mechanicals.

Realistically I could see either Demare or Sagan winning in a sprint or a late breakaway with not many sprint teams.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Winners since Gert Steegmans in 2008:

Mark Cavendish (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012)
Marcel Kittel (2013, 2014)
André Greipel (2015, 2016)
Dylan Groenewegen (2017)

So we will have a new winner tomorrow.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Winners since Gert Steegmans in 2008:

Mark Cavendish (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012)
Marcel Kittel (2013, 2014)
André Greipel (2015, 2016)
Dylan Groenewegen (2017)

So we will have a new winner tomorrow.

Unless Bennati repeats

 

[rlntlssly]

I'm betting on, among others, Alaphilippe and De Gendt to attack (maybe Craddock?), and to be comfortably brought back for the sprint as usual. Kristoff, Demare, Laporte the main candidates for the sprint. An outside chance for Degenkolb, Colbrelli and the remaining bits of Sagan, who'll surf wheels and only sprint if he's in with a good chance of winning.

No rain is forecast, so hopefully we can have a vaguely proper stage.

Will Sky allow Chavanel to lead the peloton onto the Champs?

 

[DanielSong39]

Demare or Kristoff?
Maybe a third-tier sprinter takes it?
And why do they neutralize when it's raining? Takes all the GC suspense out of the stage

 

[Sestriere]

Froome to emerge solo out of the first tunnel passage to miraculously power to his 4th GT victory in a row.

 

[Gigs_98]

Hoping for a Vino but that's as realistic as Froome winning the tour after Thomas and Dumoulin get disqualified for Salbutamol abuse. Demare ftw

 

[Inquitus]

Hard to see how Demare is beaten here, Sagan seems too beaten up to win, and Demare is by far the best of the remaining sprinters.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Demare or Kristoff?
Maybe a third-tier sprinter takes it?
And why do they neutralize when it's raining? Takes all the GC suspense out of the stage

Usually I'm all for no neutralizations but on this specific stage, I think it's fine. There should be no GC battle this day, just a delightful celebration and then a grandious battle for the stage.

 

[Robert5091]

Arnaud Demare for the win - so the French have something to talk about instead of Sky.

 

[SeriousSam]

I thought Sagan had a really good chance this year when the flat sprinting specialists were kicked out for not making the time limit, but then he had that heavy crash

 

[BullsFan22]

Sagan to defy all odds and win the final stage.

 

[tobydawq]

If Sagan wins it would be insane. Or he has played a bit for the cameras (though it's unlikely to be grimacing like that for several hours just for the lolz).

 

[movingtarget]

Demare probably with the shape Sagan is in.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I hope another Démare win today doesn't mean that we'll get as many 100% sprinters stages next time around. 8(!) such stages is simply way too much.

Granted, Gouvenou thought the Pau one would have likely gone to a breakaway.

 

[Winnen]

How great would it be if we had echelons and totall mayhem. I hope for Sagan. But I expect Demare.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

How great would it be if we had echelons and totall mayhem. I hope for Sagan. But I expect Demare.

How would we have echelons in the middle of Paris?

 

[Zoophonic]

Hoping Kristoff can take the stage. He's had a good tour and this would top it.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

Will Sky allow Chavanel to lead the peloton onto the Champs?

I would think that failing to honour that tradition, for a very popular French rider on a French team who is breaking the record for Tour participation, would make the French public even angrier. Sky have been respectful of the tradition in the past.

Anyone else to be invited to share the privilege with Chava? Bennati has won in the final parade before, Gerrans and Hayman are monument winners.

 

[rlntlssly]

Re: Re:

Will Sky allow Chavanel to lead the peloton onto the Champs?

I would think that failing to honour that tradition, for a very popular French rider on a French team who is breaking the record for Tour participation, would make the French public even angrier. Sky have been respectful of the tradition in the past.

Anyone else to be invited to share the privilege with Chava? Bennati has won in the final parade before, Gerrans and Hayman are monument winners.

Yeah, agreed. I'd be surprised if Chavanel didn't do it, as he's retiring.

The only complicating factor is that last year the arrival on the Champs was a mess because of the changed entry point. Is it the same this year or has it gone back to the old one?

 

[search]

Re: Re:

The only complicating factor is that last year the arrival on the Champs was a mess because of the changed entry point. Is it the same this year or has it gone back to the old one?

different again, but shouldn't really cause any problems

2016:

2017:

2018:

 

[JosephK]

Froome to bridge to the early break while GT is sipping from the ceremonial glass of champagne, then the Dawg forges ahead solo with 100 km. remaining. After he gets up by 30 seconds, the peloton realizes this is not a joke and bring Dumoulin, Jungels, GVA, and others to the front taking turns at 50+ kmh to bring Froome back, to no avail. Froome enters the Champs E. alone to a crescendo of boos from the crowd and powers ahead to take a 4-minute victory on the stage, grabbing his crotch at the finish line for photo-ops. :twisted:

 

[RedheadDane]

Chavanel starting in the front. Well, of course!