I have always figured if their was a stage that Contador could invent a way to win the Tour, it be on this stage. I fully expect Astana to have a rider in the break to be ready on the descent of the d'allos to have him link of with. Maybe if Movistar and/or Tinkoff get a rider in their also. I would love to see Sagan there and have Contador hook up with him on the descent. I don't see this happening at all since Sagan been in 3 straight breakway's (But heck, I didn't think he be in 3 straight to begin with).
Another interesting side note is most would suspect Froome to use his team for the D'allos, but they lost Kennaugh to illness. Thomas just had that bad crash on the Manse literally the stage before this one. Will he be able to mentally go all out on the D'allos if neexded after that. Even the best will not be as willing after a crash like that.
Maybe its just me, but if it rains, this stage could become something similar to 98 Las Deux Alpes. Froome I think is mentally stronger then Ullrich, but I could see the scenario.
I see this stage being won from the main group on the D'allos, probably similar fashion to Bardet in the Dauphine. I believe it will be someone in that 7-15 GC range, who Froome can give a minute or 2 two without too much worry and he doesn't have to go balls to the walls on the descent.
So I will go with Nibali, Bardet or the real darkhorse Samuel Sanchez.