Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 161km

[Dazed and Confused]

yea, wouldn't be surprised to see Froome beat all the pretenders again here.

Anyway would rather see the dawg winning than having another break getting 15 minutes and noone wants to chase from the peloton.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Looks perfect for Froome.

Only because of stupid Movistar/Valverde tactics... Only first place matters everything else is past

No because Froome is the strongest rider

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

No, why no...

Sweet profile

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

No, why no...

Maybe not even bad that they made an easier route. There are 3 more mountain stages on the 3 days after that so I doubt anyone would have attacked froome before the allos anyways.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

How is Adam Yates on descends?

Usually very good... though there was that hairy crash at the end of last year's San Sebastian.

Also crashed coming down from Honister Pass in TOB 2013.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

How is Adam Yates on descends?

Usually very good... though there was that hairy crash at the end of last year's San Sebastian.

Also crashed coming down from Honister Pass in TOB 2013.

Yeah he doesn't show fear and is decent on the descents, however he does have the odd scary crash, probably due to the inexperience of youth.

 

[Jagartrott]

Possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon is pretty big.

 

[Anderis]

Sagan to find a way to finish 2nd again.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: Re:

I think Pinot and Rodriguez to go in the break for KOM points. One of the Yates to be in the break too (at least one). Astana to keep break on a tight leash to guide Nibali to a stage win. Froome and Quintana to shadow box on the final climb with Nairo only gaining a few seconds in the final couple of km.

I don't think Pinot is interested in the KOM. If he'd been after it, he would have got the points on the climbs for the stage in Mende instead of letting his teammates get them because they were on the front.

Yesterday he said he's interested.

Really? Interesting. Would seem strange to leave so many points out there on the last two climbs in that case, although if he can get into a few breakaways this week that's where he'll make up the most points. Still, unless the breakaways win each stage, I don't see anyone other than Froome winning the KOM.

As I mentioned in a few posts, the KOM jersey is Froome unless a rider can back up on at least 3 stages this week in the break and hope that some of these stages aren't ridden fast from the get go.

Froome on 61, Purito on 52, Fuglsang on 41, Bardet on 38, Pinot on 11.

Maximum points on all climbs.

Stage 17:

2
2
5
10
5

24 points on offer.

Stage 18

5
2
2
2
5
25
2

43 points on offer. You would think Froome won't get points that stage unless it is ridden fast, which is a possibility.

Stage 19

10
25
5
20

60 points on offer.

Not including final climb that Froome may score points on: 40 points.

Stage 20

25
50

75 points on offer.

You would think that Froome would pick up 50 points on that stage, and perhaps 20 on the previous stage.

Let's say Pinot wants to win it, he needs to pick up all points on stage 17, 18, 19 and then pick up the 25 on 20. Then he would have enough of an advantage.

Someone needs to have at least 51 point lead on Froome after Croix de Fer on stage 20 to win the jersey. The only sure way you can do that is to be in the break in stage 17, 18, 19 and 20 if you're Pinot. Rodriguez, Fuglsang and others closer to Froome can afford to go on 18, 19 and 20 and skip 17.

No one is taking the KOM jersey off Froome unless they have the legs to go into the break 3 days in a row. Purito could get away with it and pick up a 50 point lead on 2 stages. But Fuglsang and everyone else below him needs to attack on at least 3 of these next 4 Alpine stages.

 

[ice&fire]

Doesn't Pra Loup give double points for being a MTF? Also, Allos is the highest pass of this year race. Are there extra points given at the top? or it's just a money price for the first rider?

 

[MikeTichondrius]

The Souvenir Henri Desgrange is usually just a money prize. No influence on the KOM competition. They haven't corrected the stage profile to show Allos as the new highest pass after removing the Galibier it seems.

 

[gazr99]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

How many riders will be bricking it on the descent of the Col D'Allos if Warren Barguil is in their group

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

Doesn't Pra Loup give double points for being a MTF? Also, Allos is the highest pass of this year race. Are there extra points given at the top? or it's just a money price for the first rider?

Forgot about that, yeah it is. So that's 10 points available on that climb instead of 5.

The weird thing about the competition this year is that no one has been actively going after the points and targeting it. If someone specifically was targeting it, then Froome wouldn't be leading it or if he is, there would be more than 4 riders within 20 points of him.

 

[IlGrillo]

Rodriguez is saving his legs for the jersey. Yesterday arrived 10 minutes after the GC contenders. Sunday he was in the gruppetto and the same thing happened Saturday.

I think he will attack a lot.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

How many riders will be bricking it on the descent of the Col D'Allos if Warren Barguil is in their group

They'd be smart to let him take the front.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon is pretty big.

If this is true, you can't help but wonder what could have been if Nibali had been a bit better on the climbs

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I'm thinking I've started a bad trend on here....

Not really, like usualy netserk had to complain at the speed of light when a thread is directly opened before having the actual brain to think i was still editing it.

Are you still editing it? Because the complaint still stands...

Most of those with a brain actually leave a message that there is coming more while they are editing, though there wasn't much to wait for in this case...

 

[whittashau]

Nibs has a cold. He might not be able to take advantage.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re: Re:

Doesn't Pra Loup give double points for being a MTF? Also, Allos is the highest pass of this year race. Are there extra points given at the top? or it's just a money price for the first rider?

Forgot about that, yeah it is. So that's 10 points available on that climb instead of 5.

The weird thing about the competition this year is that no one has been actively going after the points and targeting it. If someone specifically was targeting it, then Froome wouldn't be leading it or if he is, there would be more than 4 riders within 20 points of him.

There hasn't been really much to target. Cat 4 to Cat 2 are a waste of energy unless they are basically uncontested. The stupid way the KOM comp is currently set up means even Cat 1s aren't worth much unless it's the stage finish. There has only been 1 HC climb for the break so far which Majka won. But the last 3 alpine stages all have HC climbs available for the break. Rodriguez / Majka should wait for those stages. If push comes to shove and they need a few points on Alpe d'Huez to win the comp then they can do that

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Doesn't Pra Loup give double points for being a MTF? Also, Allos is the highest pass of this year race. Are there extra points given at the top? or it's just a money price for the first rider?

Forgot about that, yeah it is. So that's 10 points available on that climb instead of 5.

The weird thing about the competition this year is that no one has been actively going after the points and targeting it. If someone specifically was targeting it, then Froome wouldn't be leading it or if he is, there would be more than 4 riders within 20 points of him.

Good KOTM summary, thanks for that. I agree Froome is the favourite .... but ..... I think you might be forgeting one other contender.

It's way too much to assume 50 points for Froome on winning on Alpe D'Huez. I don't think he will even be favourite for the stage over Quintana, who still has an outside chance of KOTM. Obviously his problem is that he trails Froome by 29 points and Froome will look to track him everywhere he goes, but its not inconceivable that he wins La Toussuire and Alpe D'Huez and that there's a rider or two between them. If Quintana wins Alpe D'Huez and Froome is 4th then that's a 22 point difference in itself (50 vs 28).

As good as Froome looks, I can't forget how he looked just as dominant in 2013 on AX3 and Ventoux, but by the end of the Tour Quintana was clearly the stronger, particularly on Alpe D'Huez where he took more than a minute off him.

I really hope Movistar is strong enough to drill it on at least two of the four Alpine stages and at least put Froome under a little pressure.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

There hasn't been really much to target. Cat 4 to Cat 2 are a waste of energy unless they are basically uncontested. The stupid way the KOM comp is currently set up means even Cat 1s aren't worth much unless it's the stage finish. There has only been 1 HC climb for the break so far which Majka won. But the last 3 alpine stages all have HC climbs available for the break. Rodriguez / Majka should wait for those stages. If push comes to shove and they need a few points on Alpe d'Huez to win the comp then they can do that

Agreed. Currently the points for first over the top are:
HC: 25
1st: 10
2nd: 5
3rd: 2
4th: 1

I'd make that something like 20 12 8 4 2, and also reduce the summit finish multiplier from 2 to maybe 1.5. It would definitely increase the chance that the winner wasn't the best climber in the race, but would open up the jersey to way more competition and way more potential winners.

In a mountainous tour like this one, the best climbers are going to be the ones at the top of the GC anyway, bar first week disasters, and they're not going to jeopardise GC placing for polka dots. Much better to have Fuglsang, Bardet, Pauwels, Majka, Izagirre, Meintjes, Martin etc all scrapping it out.

 

[Linkinitouille]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

No, why no...

Gouvenou Tweet
Gouvenou said the Champs descent was way too damaged for the Tour - as the local authorities refused to refurbish it. After all it's a road that links two valleys that are the home for like 5,000 inhabitants - the cost would be huge for a road that would be under 3 meters of snow 8 months of the year.

Therefore they could have taken it uphill but they didn't bring back Cayolle for other undisclosed reasons. 40 years these two climbs are waiting to get back on the Tour... And the Tour peloton will probably never come back.

These climbs are what I like to call them, "Hors Légende". The word "Hors" means "beyond", but also means "out of". And these climbs are "out of the legend" of the Tour. Nobody remember them, they're lost in history. Because they didn't have the chance to be called Tourmalet or Galibier and be taken every year for more than a half-century.

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

How many riders will be bricking it on the descent of the Col D'Allos if Warren Barguil is in their group

Barguil is actually a good descender -- yesterday's goof notwithstanding. Remember the stage where he dodged the cows? He made up almost a minute's deficit on that descent.

 

[Arredondo]

Purito to go full genius from now. Hope he can win the stage.

Looking forward to the Allos descent.

 

[del1962]

Re: Tour de France 2015 Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains-Pra Loup 1

How many riders will be bricking it on the descent of the Col D'Allos if Warren Barguil is in their group

Barguil is actually a good descender -- yesterday's goof notwithstanding. Remember the stage where he dodged the cows? He made up almost a minute's deficit on that descent.

More reckless than good