Tour de France 2015 stage 18: Gap - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

Think Moviestar have to attack from the beginning of the stage, to put pressure on Froome and Sky. Valverde and Quintano seem strong enough to go with this plan. The cooler conditions will help attacking riding.

More likely Contador and Nibali attack early and the movistar train pull them back, then ride a tempo to guide Froome to the line with Nairo.

What I don't understand is the wide expectation that Contador will do something. The guy looks knackered and will just disappoint anyone who still expect him to challenge.

No one expects him to challenge, people expect him to attack, like he did today.
He actually looked quite good today, a shame he crashed.

I expect him to challenge. Today was his first serious attack. He didn't show much so far, I expected more attacks from Alberto. I was so happy when he tried this long range attack but I don't understand why he didn't try the second time, when Rogers jumped again with Malori. He should have bridged to their group. Maybe Valverde was prepared to join the action and they would have formed a dangerous group. I hope tomorrow Contador and Nibali try again and join forces in an epic attack from far out.

 

[the sceptic]

Froome to win the sprint 1 second ahead of Valverde.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I put all my money on Merhawi Kudus

 

[Tonton]

Re: Tour de France 2015 stage 18: Gap - Saint-Jean-de-Maurie

He said he would attack tomorrow, and keep attacking until he wins a stage. He could have done so today. And he's far enough in the GC to get a pass. Alexander Pinotkourov will win tomorrow.

 

[Melo]

I hope Contador and Nibali will make some kind of alliance tomorrow and attack early, with Majka or Rogers and Kangert or Westra. That will be fun. Both of them have nothing to lose.

 

[Tryphon]

So,what does tomorrow bring,who's in the break is only interesting topic,Purito,Rolland,Majka,Pinot,Pauwels again,Sagan again,Talansky again? GC battles are becoming a thing of the past,Giro was the same,one terrific rider just too strong but i've no issue with that whether AC at Giro or Dawg here,kinda hope Pinot or Rolland wins tomorrow,bad Le Tour for France,give the hosts some hope!

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Quintana is tired. He will try his small attacks, hoping for a Froome weakness. Otherwise not much action.

I wish he was stronger.

Has he said this is the case? Can't help but feel that he could still make it close if he just kept up an attack. The little 5 second digs don't suggest his condition one way or the other IMO.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Now this is a really nice stage

It would be good to see one of the old stagers win; Scarponi or Sanchez - I think both have enough form

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

Quintana is tired. He will try his small attacks, hoping for a Froome weakness. Otherwise not much action.

I wish he was stronger.

Has he said this is the case? Can't help but feel that he could still make it close if he just kept up an attack. The little 5 second digs don't suggest his condition one way or the other IMO.

And why exactly would he hold himself back when attacking?

 

[Museeuw]

Anyone but sagan, please.

In fact I really do hope he is not in the break as it would be more comfortable to watch the race knowing he has zero chance to win. But because he will be there I really do hope there is also some quality climbers and those quality climbers will play their hands right ie attack at the very beginning of Col du Glandon.

So what we will see is crappy break who rides Glandon very slowly and peloton which is even less interested than today.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Quintana is tired. He will try his small attacks, hoping for a Froome weakness. Otherwise not much action.

I wish he was stronger.

Has he said this is the case? Can't help but feel that he could still make it close if he just kept up an attack. The little 5 second digs don't suggest his condition one way or the other IMO.

And why exactly would he hold himself back when attacking?

Because he makes a five second effort, looks back to see Froome reeling him in, and accepts his fate. Look at Froome's trademark attacks: Skytrain until 5km to go, whittling it down to the 5 or so main GC rivals, then accelerate. There's no five second effort then look around, the plan is to accelerate and then maintain a big effort. Quintana would be able to do what Froome does if he chose to, and he could take a minute on a stage like stage 20.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

here is my prediction: nothing is gonna happen and the break wins

Most likely this. I hope one of the Yates twins wins

Don't think so. Adam was in yesterday's break and ran out of legs. Simon's still sick.

 

[Arnout]

Re: Re:

Quintana is tired. He will try his small attacks, hoping for a Froome weakness. Otherwise not much action.

I wish he was stronger.

Has he said this is the case? Can't help but feel that he could still make it close if he just kept up an attack. The little 5 second digs don't suggest his condition one way or the other IMO.

And why exactly would he hold himself back when attacking?

Because he makes a five second effort, looks back to see Froome reeling him in, and accepts his fate. Look at Froome's trademark attacks: Skytrain until 5km to go, whittling it down to the 5 or so main GC rivals, then accelerate. There's no five second effort then look around, the plan is to accelerate and then maintain a big effort. Quintana would be able to do what Froome does if he chose to, and he could take a minute on a stage like stage 20.

Agreed. Maybe Quintana can't go faster within his limit, but he should go over his limit if staying within his limit doesn't create gaps. I want him to do the same thing as Nibali in the 2013 Vuelta versus Horner, in the last stage. It was Nibali's last chance and he attacked multiple times, sometimes distancing Horner. In the end Horner came back and Nibali dropped because he went too deep but if he hadn't done that he would've never known his or Horner's true limit.

I hope that's still to come though, you don't do that with three more stages coming up.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Quintana is tired. He will try his small attacks, hoping for a Froome weakness. Otherwise not much action.

I wish he was stronger.

Froome was tired yesterday as well. When he crossed the line he swirved across the road.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Think Moviestar have to attack from the beginning of the stage, to put pressure on Froome and Sky. Valverde and Quintano seem strong enough to go with this plan. The cooler conditions will help attacking riding.

More likely Contador and Nibali attack early and the movistar train pull them back, then ride a tempo to guide Froome to the line with Nairo.

What I don't understand is the wide expectation that Contador will do something. The guy looks knackered and will just disappoint anyone who still expect him to challenge.

No one expects him to challenge, people expect him to attack, like he did today.
He actually looked quite good today, a shame he crashed.

I expect him to challenge. Today was his first serious attack. He didn't show much so far, I expected more attacks from Alberto. I was so happy when he tried this long range attack but I don't understand why he didn't try the second time, when Rogers jumped again with Malori. He should have bridged to their group. Maybe Valverde was prepared to join the action and they would have formed a dangerous group. I hope tomorrow Contador and Nibali try again and join forces in an epic attack from far out.

Im afraud Valverde will only suck his wheel instead of working with him. He cant comprehend that it would be benefit himself and Movistar as well.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Tour de France 2015 stage 18: Gap - Saint-Jean-de-Maurie

I have a pretty decent sized bet going on Froome to win KOTM but I fear this is the day he loses it to Rodriguez.

Froome leads Rodriguez by 9 points but ...

The stage looks sure to go to the breakaway; there are 46 points on offer; and it will be much easier for Rodriguez to get in the break with the stage beginning on a Cat 2 climb rather than the flat. If, as expected, he picks up big points today then he just needs to go hard early on the first two climbs tomorrow (35 total points) then soft pedal to the finish to basically secure it. I don't see Sky chasing a breakaway until Alpe D'Huez, when they will be trying hard to win the stage.

 

[Cyclingismylife]

Re:

I put all my money on Merhawi Kudus

Are you serious? And does anyone know how Meintjes' condition is?

 

[BeagRigh]

Samu to turn the clock back now he's off baby-sitting duty...

 

[Red Rick]

Love the stage design. First part is hard enough to drop all the flat road domestiques if necessary and drain all the mountain dom's. Could be mayhem all day long



But then we return to reality with Movistar and Sky occupying the first 3 spots on GC. Yawn

 

[Tank Engine]

There will be a very strong break after the first climb and then it is up and down all the way to the Glandon.

If Contador feels OK after yesterday, I expect him to cause havoc on the Glandon and I hope that Valverde has the strength and gumption to attack with him, rather than policing (I'm assuming that Froome will be marking Nairo and will be too strong at this stage and then it's all on for the mini Alpe d'Huez.

What will probably happen though: A winner from the break, JRod seems the most likely. Other guys likely to be in the break: Poels, Rogers (Majka was quite ananymous given that he was in the break yesterday), Martin, almost half of MTB. Movistar will be there in force too.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

Re: Re:

I put all my money on Merhawi Kudus

Are you serious? And does anyone know how Meintjes' condition is?

MTN website says Meintjes has stomach problems -

http://www.teammtnqhubeka.com/?p=10029

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

I put all my money on Merhawi Kudus

Are you serious? And does anyone know how Meintjes' condition is?

MTN website says Meintjes has stomach problems -

http://www.teammtnqhubeka.com/?p=10029

His team tweeted he will not start today (too ill).

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

This would be the perfect stage to create some havoc for Movistar, but they've really disappointed me so far. I'm not expecting much today unfortunately

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

This would be the perfect stage to create some havoc for Movistar, but they've really disappointed me so far. I'm not expecting much today unfortunately

I think Berti and Nibs will try today, the only action we'll see from Movistar is chasing those two down I'm afraid.

 

[TommyGun]

Do you think Contador could try to take the early break in the first climb? Highly unlikely, but IMO this would the only way to create something. Of course, no one would let him go (especially not the Vomistars), and then we would witness a mad battle in the first hour of the stage, with maybe 12-15 riders and an isolated Froome in the front.
Otherwise, attacking only on the Glandon will be way too late, it will turn out exactly like yesterday.