Tour de France 2015 Stage 9: Vannes-Plumelec 28 km TTT

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

BMC won the TT becouse thay handled better the last climb, but SKy showed the strong team they have and especially Froome.
anyway would have been an stronger team with Nieve on the mountains... We will see if they can handle all the attacks... froome said now his rivals must do something, but I thing SKy will hit first nin la Pierre. Next days pureclimbers will be better, forst mountain finist, especially one climb is no so good for pure climbers, after the flat...but of quintana qant to win le Tour must be with Froome

Sky would have won the TTT if they did not have to wait for Roche who was really struggling on the final climb. I was actually surprised with his team selection.

Kennaugh was missing on the TTT and Poels blew before climb but you blame Roche who has been outstanding on team duties all week ? Roche struggled on final climb as he worked so hard early on and wasn't meant to be there

If Nieve was strongest in mountains then he would have been picked.
SKY have an incredible team for the mountains in this Tour

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re: Re:

BMC won the TT becouse thay handled better the last climb, but SKy showed the strong team they have and especially Froome.
anyway would have been an stronger team with Nieve on the mountains... We will see if they can handle all the attacks... froome said now his rivals must do something, but I thing SKy will hit first nin la Pierre. Next days pureclimbers will be better, forst mountain finist, especially one climb is no so good for pure climbers, after the flat...but of quintana qant to win le Tour must be with Froome

Sky would have won the TTT if they did not have to wait for Roche who was really struggling on the final climb. I was actually surprised with his team selection.

and movistar would've won the ttt if the motors didn't pace the first few riders on the climb destroying the team in the process.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I wonder why everyone always assumes CoNtador benefits disproportionally from rest days...?

Because all things being equal he has better recovery than any other GC rider currently in the peloton.

Does he really? I know he's the most consistent and successful GC rider since he who should not be named, but is his recovery anything special?

In the Giro he was not even in the top 5 strongest riders on the final stage. Now this could have been because his peak was already gone so he could peak for the TDF, but still it has some meaning.

Back in 2011 he seemed easily in control, only to struggle to hang onto Schleck and almost losing time to him in the TT, a discipline he should have crushed him in.

In many of his other Giro/TDF wins he wasn't even close to being challenged in the final week, having already won the GC by then.

The only GT he's every shown a great last week was the Vuelta, but that's a different animal. It's after a long season, where most riders already have a GT in their legs, and his last two wins came after a suspension or an aborted TDF, meaning he was still coming into form at the start of the Vuelta, forcing him to get better later on, and having a lot less wear and tear from training and racing in his legs.

All in all I don't believe Contador is anything special when it comes to recovery. He's an exceptional climber and a solid time trialist, who's great in hilly time trials. But if you want someone with great recovery look at Hesjedal, who was great this Giro, and won his only GT in the last week as well.

Yes really. And I disagree with your views here. Looking at the 2015 Giro, in isolation is simply wrong in light of his 2015 goals. He's at the 2015 TdF and looking solid for a podium position. Not sure how you conclude Hesjedal has great recovery. He finished 10'41 back on Contador at the Giro. Three weeks later he lost the Route du Sud to Contador. He was 35' down on GC going in to today's stage. Yes, I can see how you conclude he has better recovery than Contador.

You say I look at the 2015 Giro in isolation, while I offer at least 1 more example, which you completely ignore.

You also don't actually give any counter example.

And I'm pretty sure you realise I meant recovery within a race, not between races. Hesjedal was better than Contador in the final few stages of the Giro, even though he was nowhere near him early on. And when he beat Rodriguez to win the Giro he did it in the final week as well.

We have absolutely zero idea what Hesjedal did betweent he Giro and now, so it could have a dozen reasons, none of which have any relation to in race recovery.

Point me to any GT where Contador wasn't the best in the first few mountain stages but was in the final week (outside of the 2 Vuelta's where he started with no racing in his legs) and I might believe you.

For example:
2007 TDF: When Rasmussen got pulled he had 1:53 on Evans, he ended with 23 seconds, lost 1 minute 30 from stage 17 on.

2008 Giro: Took the Pink in stage 15, was 33 ahead of Ricco, and 1 minute 18 ahead of Bruseghin. They were 4 seconds and 2 minutes behind him respectively before the TT, which admittedly he crushed. Yet not exactly a display of final week climbing dominance.

2008 Vuelta: Took the gold jersey in stage 13, 1 minute 7 ahead of Leipheimer, ended 46 seconds ahead. Losing 21 seconds in that final week.

2009 TDF: Took the yellow in stage 15, was 2'26" ahead of Andy Schleck. Until the ITT it stayed at 2'26, there he jumped till 4'11" so he took 0 seconds to Andy in that final week.

2010 TDF: Took the yellow by 8 seconds in stage 15, 8 seconds ahead of Andy. Then was unable to take any more time till the ITT, where he took 31 seconds, by far the least he ever took on Andy Schlek in a TT.

2011 Giro: Was never threatened.

2012 Vuelta: Came back from suspension, so had no racing in his legs and was 100% fresh. Was behind Rodriguez early on, took the lead in Fuente de, then proceeded to lose 44 seconds to Rodriguez and 36 seconds to Valverde in the final stages. Even here he wasn't the best in the last week.

2013 TDF: After stage 13 he was 3rd, 2' 45" behind. In the end he was 4th 7' 10" behind. 2' 7" behind Quintana and 1' 23" behind Rodriguez. He had 2' 38" on Quintana and 3' 03" on Rodrigues, so he lost more than 4 minutes to both in his final week or so.

2014 Vuelta: He came back from injury, so no normal prep. Yet he was already leader by stage 10. He was 1' 18" ahead of Froome at that time (which was 1' 39" by stage 16). He ended up only 1' 10" ahead in the end. So once again, he failed to take time in the final week.

Basically when Contador wins a GT he does it by taking a lead and holding on to it in the final week. The only exception being Fuente de, where he didn't win back by being the best climber but by being the smartest rider.

There is simply no evidence Contador is better at recovery than other riders. Since his lead always seems to decrease in the final week. The only exception being the 2008 Giro and 2011 TDF, where he was able to take time on lesser time trialists in Ricco and Andy Schleck.

Again: Yes Contador is a great GT rider and an awesome climber, but his strength is NOT the final week. His strength is being to good early on and taking to much time for others to catch up. He then either loses some time through not being good enough, or because he's taking it easy. Neither option shows he's got great recovery.

Lol you're being very manipulative. Either ITT's count or they don't. Make up your mind.

2007 TDF: Contador lost 1'27 to Evans in the final ITT. Lost 3 seconds to Evans in the final week, not 1'30.
2008 Vuelta: Contador lost 31 seconds to Leipheimer in the final ITT. Won 10 seconds on Leipheimer in the final week.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I was surprised to see so many riders carrying water bottles. I mistakenly thought that they were useless for a 32 minute time trial. What is the minimum TT length that riders start carrying water?

yep, that was interestin, but it depends on the weather I think, I made a 35 minute effort yesterday and I drank half of the bottle so I think it was reasonable.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

BMC won the TT becouse thay handled better the last climb, but SKy showed the strong team they have and especially Froome.
anyway would have been an stronger team with Nieve on the mountains... We will see if they can handle all the attacks... froome said now his rivals must do something, but I thing SKy will hit first nin la Pierre. Next days pureclimbers will be better, forst mountain finist, especially one climb is no so good for pure climbers, after the flat...but of quintana qant to win le Tour must be with Froome

Very good post, exactly my thoughts

 

[slosada]

Looking at EQS result, I wonder what it would have been with Tony Martin.
Without the outliers (EQS and Cofidis) all 8man teams finished within 1:25 and 1:37.

 

[Ramira]

Re:

Lol you're being very manipulative. Either ITT's count or they don't. Make up your mind.

2007 TDF: Contador lost 1'27 to Evans in the final ITT. Lost 3 seconds to Evans in the final week, not 1'30.
2008 Vuelta: Contador lost 31 seconds to Leipheimer in the final ITT. Won 10 seconds on Leipheimer in the final week.

I spent a limited time on it, so yeah I made some omissions. And I admit it gives a slightly twisted view, I should've looked at a few more TT's, but I wanted to respond within a few minutes not take an hour.

However, I feel they're irrelevant for the point I was trying to make. Even if he lost "only" 3 seconds to Evans and took 10 seconds on Leipheimer in the final week, that's not better, actually it's worse, than what he did in the first 2 weeks.

And that was my point, I never tried to say Contador was bad in week 3, just that the idea that his strength is recovery and week 3 is nonsense. Even in those examples you gave he was far better in the first 2 weeks than in the last, and he wouldn't have won those GT's had it not been for weeks 1 and 2. So in my humble opinion, if Contador isn't able to take back any time on Froome before next Sunday, he won't be able to in the final week either.

 

[ggusta]

Re:

Does he really? I know he's the most consistent and successful GC rider since he who should not be named, but is his recovery anything special?

In the Giro he was not even in the top 5 strongest riders on the final stage. Now this could have been because his peak was already gone so he could peak for the TDF, but still it has some meaning.

Back in 2011 he seemed easily in control, only to struggle to hang onto Schleck and almost losing time to him in the TT, a discipline he should have crushed him in.

In many of his other Giro/TDF wins he wasn't even close to being challenged in the final week, having already won the GC by then.

The only GT he's every shown a great last week was the Vuelta, but that's a different animal. It's after a long season, where most riders already have a GT in their legs, and his last two wins came after a suspension or an aborted TDF, meaning he was still coming into form at the start of the Vuelta, forcing him to get better later on, and having a lot less wear and tear from training and racing in his legs.

All in all I don't believe Contador is anything special when it comes to recovery. He's an exceptional climber and a solid time trialist, who's great in hilly time trials. But if you want someone with great recovery look at Hesjedal, who was great this Giro, and won his only GT in the last week as well.

Yes really. And I disagree with your views here. Looking at the 2015 Giro, in isolation is simply wrong in light of his 2015 goals. He's at the 2015 TdF and looking solid for a podium position. Not sure how you conclude Hesjedal has great recovery. He finished 10'41 back on Contador at the Giro. Three weeks later he lost the Route du Sud to Contador. He was 35' down on GC going in to today's stage. Yes, I can see how you conclude he has better recovery than Contador.

You say I look at the 2015 Giro in isolation, while I offer at least 1 more example, which you completely ignore.

You also don't actually give any counter example.

And I'm pretty sure you realise I meant recovery within a race, not between races. Hesjedal was better than Contador in the final few stages of the Giro, even though he was nowhere near him early on. And when he beat Rodriguez to win the Giro he did it in the final week as well.

We have absolutely zero idea what Hesjedal did betweent he Giro and now, so it could have a dozen reasons, none of which have any relation to in race recovery.

Point me to any GT where Contador wasn't the best in the first few mountain stages but was in the final week (outside of the 2 Vuelta's where he started with no racing in his legs) and I might believe you.

For example:
2007 TDF: When Rasmussen got pulled he had 1:53 on Evans, he ended with 23 seconds, lost 1 minute 30 from stage 17 on.

2008 Giro: Took the Pink in stage 15, was 33 ahead of Ricco, and 1 minute 18 ahead of Bruseghin. They were 4 seconds and 2 minutes behind him respectively before the TT, which admittedly he crushed. Yet not exactly a display of final week climbing dominance.

2008 Vuelta: Took the gold jersey in stage 13, 1 minute 7 ahead of Leipheimer, ended 46 seconds ahead. Losing 21 seconds in that final week.

2009 TDF: Took the yellow in stage 15, was 2'26" ahead of Andy Schleck. Until the ITT it stayed at 2'26, there he jumped till 4'11" so he took 0 seconds to Andy in that final week.

2010 TDF: Took the yellow by 8 seconds in stage 15, 8 seconds ahead of Andy. Then was unable to take any more time till the ITT, where he took 31 seconds, by far the least he ever took on Andy Schlek in a TT.

2011 Giro: Was never threatened.

2012 Vuelta: Came back from suspension, so had no racing in his legs and was 100% fresh. Was behind Rodriguez early on, took the lead in Fuente de, then proceeded to lose 44 seconds to Rodriguez and 36 seconds to Valverde in the final stages. Even here he wasn't the best in the last week.

2013 TDF: After stage 13 he was 3rd, 2' 45" behind. In the end he was 4th 7' 10" behind. 2' 7" behind Quintana and 1' 23" behind Rodriguez. He had 2' 38" on Quintana and 3' 03" on Rodrigues, so he lost more than 4 minutes to both in his final week or so.

2014 Vuelta: He came back from injury, so no normal prep. Yet he was already leader by stage 10. He was 1' 18" ahead of Froome at that time (which was 1' 39" by stage 16). He ended up only 1' 10" ahead in the end. So once again, he failed to take time in the final week.

Basically when Contador wins a GT he does it by taking a lead and holding on to it in the final week. The only exception being Fuente de, where he didn't win back by being the best climber but by being the smartest rider.

There is simply no evidence Contador is better at recovery than other riders. Since his lead always seems to decrease in the final week. The only exception being the 2008 Giro and 2011 TDF, where he was able to take time on lesser time trialists in Ricco and Andy Schleck.

Again: Yes Contador is a great GT rider and an awesome climber, but his strength is NOT the final week. His strength is being to good early on and taking to much time for others to catch up. He then either loses some time through not being good enough, or because he's taking it easy. Neither option shows he's got great recovery.

Lol you're being very manipulative. Either ITT's count or they don't. Make up your mind.

2007 TDF: Contador lost 1'27 to Evans in the final ITT. Lost 3 seconds to Evans in the final week, not 1'30.
2008 Vuelta: Contador lost 31 seconds to Leipheimer in the final ITT. Won 10 seconds on Leipheimer in the final week.

[ Hope i didn't slaughter the attributions due to more than 5 nested quotes, apologies if it appears I attributed quotes to the wrong people
You may embed only 5 quotes within each other.]


The amount of spin in some of the analysis just goes to show you, stats are like hostages: torture them long enough, and they'll tell you whatever you want.

Once he has a lead in week 3 he tends to follow wheels and do what he needs to do to win the GC, not add to his lead unless he sees an opportunity with little risk. He is not adverse to ceding some time here and there in pursuit of the larger goal in the final stages.