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Tour de France 2016 route prediction

Its always interesting to predict how the route of a gt will look like. Although there isnt a thread like this yet (only a grand depart thread) the Tour de France 2016 isnt an exception. No, I even think that this one is an extremely interesting case.
At the moment we know the first 2 stages (pictures and description from the Grand Depart thread):
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Stage 1 map:
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Stage 2 map:
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Stage 2 final:
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We also know that there will be 3 days in Andorra. A stage finish, a rest day and a start.
Moreover there are a lot of rumors about a stage going to the Mont Ventoux, and considering that it wasnt included in the last two editions I could very well imagine that (make double ventoux true aso, just make it true). The rumors also say that the stage will start somewhere in the south between marseille and nice. If that is true I think we wont see the massif central. But lets come back to what is fact because that alone is quite interesting. Considering that this year the pyrenees where taken before the alps, it should be in the other direction next year. However the last time the pyrenees were used first for two years in a row was 2009 and in that year we also had a stage to andorra and a stage to the mont ventoux. Of course that doesnt have to mean something but I just have the feeling the last mountain stage will be neither in the alps nor the pyrenees. Another reason is that 2017 will be the 100th giro so I kind of expect one alp stage going into italy, and it wouldnt make me wonder if they want to use the alps earlier in such a year, so the gc doesnt get decided in a foreign country. Ofc thats a very very bold prediction, but hey this isnt the Tour de France 2016 rumors thread, its a prediction thread. So what do you expect?
 
What do I expect?

- three stages in the Maurienne valley, zero new climbs
- Tourmalet, possibly a Luz Ardiden finish as we've been without that since 2011.
- stage 15 to Andorra, so stage 16 from there either a clone of the 2013 Vuelta stage to Peyragudes or the 1993 Tour stage to Pla d'Adet
- Bordeaux ITT in stage 20, if we're lucky finishing in Saint-Émilion
- first rest day either in Grenoble or Gap
 
I think they'll try to make it a route which doesn't suit Froome well; although they kind of tried that this year which didn't work. A very tough route with several stages with multiple mountains would suit the French hopefuls and Quintana so they will probably go with that. I can't see them doing another PSM like stage as the first one in the mountains - basically killing the GC outright. The public were getting restless this year, they'd certainly want to avoid another walkover like that.

Surely a time trial has to go back in, but a mountain one would allow Quintana to limit his losses and probably make it more of an exciting race.
 
Jul 24, 2014
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Ammattipyoraily tweeted this link, which sounds pretty affirmative in describing Ventoux as being the finish of Stage 14, beginning in Draguignan.

For the Pyrenees, what about Cantó - Bonaigua - Portillon - Peyresourde - Aspin - Tourmalet - Luz Ardiden for the stage starting in Andorra? :D Or is that like 300kms or something? :p
 
Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
What do I expect?

- three stages in the Maurienne valley, zero new climbs
- Tourmalet, possibly a Luz Ardiden finish as we've been without that since 2011.
- stage 15 to Andorra, so stage 16 from there either a clone of the 2013 Vuelta stage to Peyragudes or the 1993 Tour stage to Pla d'Adet
- Bordeaux ITT in stage 20, if we're lucky finishing in Saint-Émilion
- first rest day either in Grenoble or Gap

20 years after.
I remember the stage start in Torino. me as a teenager meeting the mentor Jose Maria Echavarri and saying "Aupa Miguel por Sant´Emilion"
I got his autograph "con carino de amigo" J.M.E.
oh how sad I was that July
:)
kids...
 
Here I'll go

- 0 stages with 5+ climb where attacking from far out is possible
- No climb of cat 2 or higher will be new, 30% of those were last seen after 2013
- If there is a new cat 2 or higher climb, it won't have an impact on the race
- at least 3 mountain stages will be exact copy's of earlier mountainstages
- no HC MTF's before the Mont Ventoux
- Tourmalet will be in, and it will be the highest point in the race
- There will be at least 7 sprint stages, and at least 3 pointless breakaway stages
- 5 MTF's total
- Media will call it a tough parcours, regardless of the parcours
- long tt on final saturday
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
Here I'll go

- 0 stages with 5+ climb where attacking from far out is possible
- No climb of cat 2 or higher will be new, 30% of those were last seen after 2013
- If there is a new cat 2 or higher climb, it won't have an impact on the race
- at least 3 mountain stages will be exact copy's of earlier mountainstages
- no HC MTF's before the Mont Ventoux
- Tourmalet will be in, and it will be the highest point in the race
- There will be at least 7 sprint stages, and at least 3 pointless breakaway stages
- 5 MTF's total
- Media will call it a tough parcours, regardless of the parcours
- long tt on final saturday
I don't think the ventoux will be the first mtf and I don't think that there wont be any new 2nd, 1st or HC climbs but sadly this point is extremely true :(
 
Stromeon said:
Ammattipyoraily tweeted this link, which sounds pretty affirmative in describing Ventoux as being the finish of Stage 14, beginning in Draguignan.

For the Pyrenees, what about Cantó - Bonaigua - Portillon - Peyresourde - Aspin - Tourmalet - Luz Ardiden for the stage starting in Andorra? :D Or is that like 300kms or something? :p
Andorra-la-Vella - Port del Cantó - Port de la Bonaigua - Coll de Portillón - Col de Peyresourde - Col d'Azet - Pla d'Adet is 230km, as per the 1993 route when Zenon Jaskuła and Tony Rominger went insane in the brain trying to drop Miguelón. Azet & Adet are far shorter than Aspin & Tourmalet too.
 
Libertine Seguros said:
Stromeon said:
Ammattipyoraily tweeted this link, which sounds pretty affirmative in describing Ventoux as being the finish of Stage 14, beginning in Draguignan.

For the Pyrenees, what about Cantó - Bonaigua - Portillon - Peyresourde - Aspin - Tourmalet - Luz Ardiden for the stage starting in Andorra? :D Or is that like 300kms or something? :p
Andorra-la-Vella - Port del Cantó - Port de la Bonaigua - Coll de Portillón - Col de Peyresourde - Col d'Azet - Pla d'Adet is 230km, as per the 1993 route when Zenon Jaskuła and Tony Rominger went insane in the brain trying to drop Miguelón. Azet & Adet are far shorter than Aspin & Tourmalet too.
Only 230 kilometers? I guess that means we have space for the bales instead of the portillon
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
sir fly said:
LaFlorecita said:
sir fly said:
An uphill time trial on Mont Ventoux would be epic and reasonable considering the GC battle.
?
!
Dearest Mr sir fly, could you clarify your comment, I do not fully understand what you meant by "reasonable considering the GC battle". Thanks in advance.
Lovely Ms LaFlorecita,
"Reasonable considering the GC battle" should mean that an uphill tt wouldn't be as much favourable for certain GC contenders (over the others) as a flat one (or two) would be.
Such a tt would be a really fair test, since the climbing is the area of excellence of all GC contenders.

I hope my opinion is more clear to You now, than it's initially been.
 
Re: Re:

sir fly said:
LaFlorecita said:
sir fly said:
LaFlorecita said:
sir fly said:
An uphill time trial on Mont Ventoux would be epic and reasonable considering the GC battle.
?
!
Dearest Mr sir fly, could you clarify your comment, I do not fully understand what you meant by "reasonable considering the GC battle". Thanks in advance.
Lovely Ms LaFlorecita,
"Reasonable considering the GC battle" should mean that an uphill tt wouldn't be as much favourable for certain GC contenders (over the others) as a flat one (or two) would be.
Such a tt would be a really fair test, since the climbing is the area of excellence of all GC contenders.

I hope my opinion is more clear to You now, than it's initially been.
okay, I get it now :)