Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

BRING BACK VERBIER!!!

ABSOLUTELY!

And Le Grand Bornand (Romme/Columbierre please).

It would be interesting to see how far is Contador from 2009...and how any other rider cant be close to that mark today.

 

[Taxus4a]

An strong ITT would be fair.

 

[roundabout]

There are strong rumours, based on hotel bookings, that there won't be the traditional switch between Alps and Pyrenees first.

In other words, Pyrenees will be before the Alps again this year.

Here's a rough idea of what the route would look like based on current rumours, based on local press and hotel bookings.

Sat 2 : Mont-Saint-Michel > Utah Beach (ASO)
Sun 3 : Saint-Lô > Cherbourg-Octeville (ASO)
Mon 4 : Granville - Angers (local press announced a stage finish in Angers after Granville)
Tue 5 : Bressuire > Limoges (hotels booked near Bressuire which is a candidate for 10 years, finish + start announced in Limoges)
Wed 6 : Limoges > Le Lioran (finish announced in Lioran - small MTF, definitely Peyrol before)
Thu 7 : Aurillac > Villefranche-de-Rouergue (hotel bookings in the area)
Fri 8 : Auch > Pau (Auch strong candidate - Pau confirmed to be on the 2016 route)
Sat 9 : Pau > Peyragudes (probably the return of this MTF after Tourmalet and Aspin, probably Azet too)
Sun 10 : Bagnères-de-Luchon > Andorra (Luchon will surely return, three days in Andorra confirmed by ASO, only possible approach from south, so Portillon / Bonaigua / Canto and hopefully Gallina - finish in Arcalis plausible)
Rest day Mon 11 in Andorra
Tue 12 : Andorre-la-Vieille > Carcassonne (hotel bookings around)
Wed 13 : Carcassonne > Montpellier (Montpellier confirmed a stage finish this year)
Thu 14 : Montpellier > Mont Ventoux (rumours of finishing on top of Mont Ventoux)
Fri 15 : Bourg-Saint-Andéol > Vallon-Pont-d'Arc ITT (stage in Ardèche nearly confirmed, strong ITT rumor)
Sat 16 : Aubenas > Brioude (The area has multiple candidates - Brioude home town of Romain Bardet)
Sun 17 : Ambert > Col du Béal (strong candidates around the col du Béal)
Rest day Mon 18 around Lyon
Tue 19 : Villars-les-Dombes > Le Bourget-du-Lac (big guess here, hope for Mont du Chat, Le Bourget-du-Lac was on the 2015 Dauphiné route!)
Wed 20 : Albertville > Méribel Mottaret or La Rosière-Montvalezan (all these cities and stations are candidates)
Thu 21 : Brides-les-Bains or Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Saint-Gervais Le Bettex (same, Saint-Gervais was on the 2015 Dauphiné)
Fri 22 : Sallanches > Champagnole (through the Jura mountains, Champagnole is a candidate city)
Sat 23 : Arbois > Dole ITT (both towns are candidates until 2020! they hope for an ITT)
Sun 24 : Some random city in Paris outskirts > Paris Champs-Élysées (the classic Paris stage)

I quite like those rumours. Méribel Mottaret, La Rosière, Le Bettex are very unorthodox destinations for a conservative tour like TdF. The overall route seems to look quite original too. I think that the real TdF route will look much more mundane than the one you presented. Good, that there are no rumours about l'Alpe. In last years TdF always had this overuse when Pyrenees where first.

7 MTFs. Yay. Ok, Lioran is cat 3, but still.

 

[Gigs_98]

7 MTFs. Yay. Ok, Lioran is cat 3, but still.

If you count Lioran you also have to count stage 2. That climb isnt that easy with 3 km with 5% although there is a downhill section in the middle, which means that the rising parts are actually much steeper.
Btw, I would kind of like this route. Yeah, its a little bit mtf crazy and these 5 possible mountain stages in a row, before the ITT are clearly too much (although there is a rest day after the first one) but besides that the pyrenees and especially the Mt. Ventoux should cause huge time gaps which could be closed on the alpine stages. But none of the mtf's there seems to be extremely difficult which could force the riders to long range attacks. Btw, I hope for La Rosiere instead of Meribel, and I pray for Mont du Chat.

 

[MatParker117]

Would be around 70k of relatively flat TT'ing if that's true and Quintana would probably skip it to avoid a massive handicap of six minutes plus to Froome and Contador.

 

[Gigs_98]

If the 19th stage from Sallanches to Champagnole is really a last mountain or at least medium mountain stage, which climbs do you think will be included.
I tried to make a stage but to be honest, I kind of failed because the stage I created really isnt that good

the climbs are:
Col du Romme (1st category)
Col de la Faucile (1st category)
Cinquetral (3rd/2nd category)
Col de la Savine (3rd category)

The point is that I wouldnt see many other hard climbs which are near Champagnole, so I predict that the stage will be either flat or the stage finish will be somewhere else so that the stage gets meaningful.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Would be around 70k of relatively flat TT'ing if that's true and Quintana would probably skip it to avoid a massive handicap of six minutes plus to Froome and Contador.

Oh C'mon
Quintana isnt a good time trialist but 6 minutes+ is by far too much. Landa lost about 4 minutes in the 60 km ITT against Kirijenka and Quintana is better than Landa in TT's while froome is worse than Kirijenka

 

[MatParker117]

If the 19th stage from Sallanches to Champagnole is really a last mountain or at least medium mountain stage, which climbs do you think will be included.
I tried to make a stage but to be honest, I kind of failed because the stage I created really isnt that good

the climbs are:
Col du Romme (1st category)
Col de la Faucile (1st category)
Cinquetral (3rd/2nd category)
Col de la Savine (3rd category)

The point is that I wouldnt see many other hard climbs which are near Champagnole, so I predict that the stage will be either flat or the stage finish will be somewhere else so that the stage gets meaningful.

Galibier could be an option.

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

Would be around 70k of relatively flat TT'ing if that's true and Quintana would probably skip it to avoid a massive handicap of six minutes plus to Froome and Contador.

Oh C'mon
Quintana isnt a good time trialist but 6 minutes+ is by far too much. Landa lost about 4 minutes in the 60 km ITT against Kirijenka and Quintana is better than Landa in TT's while froome is worse than Kirijenka

When Froome and Contador are on they are among the absolute best and Froome put five minutes into Quintana when one of those TT contained two cat 2 mountains. If there is two long flat TT's there is no point in Quintana doing that type of tour, it way too much of a handicap for a guy who's just can't TT on the flat.

 

[Windsor1334]

Other way from Luchon to Andorra could be mente, portet d'aspet, col de la core, cote de porte, puig d'envalira and ordino with a finish in the valley....

 

[McLovin]

If the 19th stage from Sallanches to Champagnole is really a last mountain or at least medium mountain stage, which climbs do you think will be included.
I tried to make a stage but to be honest, I kind of failed because the stage I created really isnt that good

the climbs are:
Col du Romme (1st category)
Col de la Faucile (1st category)
Cinquetral (3rd/2nd category)
Col de la Savine (3rd category)

The point is that I wouldnt see many other hard climbs which are near Champagnole, so I predict that the stage will be either flat or the stage finish will be somewhere else so that the stage gets meaningful.

Alpes and Jura in the same stage. Interesting!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Côte de Lent just outside Champagnole possibly?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Côte de Lent just outside Champagnole possibly?

I thought about that one too after I posted my original post. Well its good but still not really a way to make this a serious mountain stage.
If you come from Syam there is another climb directly before Cote de Lent, which is also nice but these are still only a 3rd and a 4th category climb.

 

[malakassis]

acutally what are the "anniversaires" in the 2016 tour? i can imagine:
-40ys pla d'adet / van impe
-30ys lemond/hinault in alpe d'huez
-20ys indurain-end les arcs
-10ys crazy landis comeback

 

[Linkinitouille]

Re:

acutally what are the "anniversaires" in the 2016 tour? i can imagine:
-40ys pla d'adet / van impe
-30ys lemond/hinault in alpe d'huez
-20ys indurain-end les arcs
-10ys crazy landis comeback

I don't believe in any of these.
- Pla d'Adet already celebrated the 40 years of the victory of Poulidor last year.
- L'Alpe is on the route every 2 years so not in 2016.
- Les Arcs isn't candidate anymore.
- Celebrating a confirmed doped performance is not a good idea.

The only big anniversary that was plausible was the battle of Verdun in 1916 - but the Tour won't go east next year, so it's not gonna happen.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

More sprint stages!

No thanks.

 

[barmaher]

There were very few last year really.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

There were very few last year really.

the number was perfect, IMO.

 

[Escarabajo]

- Probably a flat ITT will be back.

- I hope for a mountain ITT. And a true hard one. Not like the one from 2013. Ventoux in 1987 was epic.

- Probably will go with the first mountain stage to end in a descend finish. Avoid killing the race like PSM. It is usually the case the first day some riders have not adjusted to the change of topography. If you don't want to kill the emotion of the race just avoid finishing in a MTT. Something like a stage where 10-15 riders finish together and eliminates just the bad ones that will not recover.

- A true queen stage. They have been avoiding this kind of stage for clinic reasons. They should risk it again and see what happens.

- I like the model of the first week having punchy climbs. Just avoid 7-9 flat sprint stages in a row. It just delays the emotion too long.

 

[barmaher]

Re: Re:

There were very few last year really.

the number was perfect, IMO.

Really only 4 stages. Fougeres, Amiens, Valence and Paris.

I wouldn't mind another.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

There were very few last year really.

the number was perfect, IMO.

Really only 4 stages. Fougeres, Amiens, Valence and Paris.

I wouldn't mind another.

You forgot about Neeltje Jans (stage 2 which was won by greipel)
Well the reason why I think the number was perfect is because there were only very very few stages were sprinters had an easy day.
The cobbles stage, the stage to Le Havre, Rodez, Valence actually too.
All of these were flat or hilly stages which could have gone to sprinters too but only the stage to valence really did. Ofc. these stages are often too difficult for guys like greipel or cav but thats a good thing because other sprinters who also have other qualities can win these stages. (On the other 3 stages I mentioned a sprinter always got second two times a sprinter got third and also two times a sprinter got 4th)

 

[barmaher]

I have not said whether I think it is a good idea. I just noted that there were very few sprtinting stages, and that we can expect a few more.

I actually wouldn't mind a bit more, so long as they give us better mountain stages. Some of the stages last year were terrible.

 

[Gigs_98]

Okay I made the champagnole stage again but this time with a more difficult finish:

I still don't think the aso wants to make something like that as their last road stage before the ITT but it would be at least okay

 

[sir fly]

Okay I made the champagnole stage again but this time with a more difficult finish:

I still don't think the aso wants to make something like that as their last road stage before the ITT but it would be at least okay

Of course ASO doesn't want to make anything like that. It's pointless and pure crap.
You should find some other amusement for yourself. This stage designing isn't something you're good at.

 

[Brullnux]

Okay I made the champagnole stage again but this time with a more difficult finish:

I still don't think the aso wants to make something like that as their last road stage before the ITT but it would be at least okay

Of course ASO doesn't want to make anything like that. It's pointless and pure crap.
You should find some other amusement for yourself. This stage designing isn't something you're good at.

Do you remember the last real road stage in the 2012 Tour? That was the most wasted day in the third week of a GT I have ever seen in my life, as ASO care more about € than racing. If two towns give them a lot of money, then they have a stage. Gigs was trying to make a stage with two towns rumoured to have a start and finish, I believe. The fact that the stage wasn't great isn't Gigs being poor, it is the region having an inadept geography.