Tour de France 2017. stage 1: Düsseldorf, 14 km itt

[Squire]

Re: Re:

Weather forecast for tomorrow: rain all day long, cold (17 C).

God I wish I lived in a place where 17C was considered cold. We had a high of 12C yesterday in Dublin.

Where I live currently, 17 C is our record high temperature this year. We had one gorgeous day of it.

 

[ThePirate81]

Could Kwiatkowski take yellow on Stage 3? Given his form I think he has a big chance.

 

[klintE]

Re:

Could Kwiatkowski take yellow on Stage 3? Given his form I think he has a big chance.

He will try, AFAIK

GC guys start times:
[...]
16:13 Pinot

I don't think Pinot shall ride for GC

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

Could Kwiatkowski take yellow on Stage 3? Given his form I think he has a big chance.

I think Sagan and Valverde have a better uphill sprint, but we'll see.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

I don't think Sky wants the jersey already after stage 3.

 

[tobydawq]

I'm curious to see if Sagan will obliterate the competition on Monday as what one would usually believe. He seemed to suffer surprisingly much at the finish in Bern in Tour de Suisse (where he won last year in the Tour), and I think he has gained a little weight so as to have become faster in the flat finishes. But he'll probably win on Monday. How he will do tomorrow is very difficult to predict, however.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

I don't think Sky wants the jersey already after stage 3.

Well if it's Kwiatkowski in yellow I doubt they would defend it.

 

[Krokro]

Re:

I'm surprised no one mentioned van Emden. I think of all the specialists the short ITT suits him the most. But he has already done the Giro and his form is a bit unknown right now.

Thanks God I was wondering as he is the clear contender with Martin and Roglic. Küng might surprise also.

 

[deValtos]

I think ...

1.Kung
2.Martin
3.Roglic

But they'd all be about 30 seconds or something absurd behind Dennis if he was here ...

 

[Red Rick]

The real question is if Porte is gonna catch Dan Martin

 

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

I'm surprised no one mentioned van Emden. I think of all the specialists the short ITT suits him the most. But he has already done the Giro and his form is a bit unknown right now.

Van Emden said in couple of interviews that he doesn't feel at his best and that his shape is nowhere near the same as it was in the Giro. Plus he blew quite spectacularly in the national TT champs. Beaten by Gesink... So I wouldn't count him as a top favourite. Top 10 though, for sure.

Beaten by Gesink suggests that being beaten by Gesink by definition is bad. Gesink can do really good TT's and he certainly did one at the nationals, but yeah van Emden wasnt good that day, allthough above 30km isnt good for van Emden.
Van Emden shouldnt start this tdf. He got the heads up right after the giro that he would go to the TdF so he started training directly again after the giro which ended up in him being extremely fatigued, yet they stil let him start somehow.

That's what I was thinking, too. His form shouldn't be as good as in the Giro. But still, he is a different beast in short ITTs. I consider him 2nd only to Dennis in ITTs up to 15km when he's in peak form. I don't think he'll win tomorrow, though. For the above mentioned reasons.

What about Felline. He won the prologue in Romandie which was held in similar rainy conditions that are expected for tomorrow. I looked at the odds and couldn't believe when I saw he's is being given at 151. Any word on him. He probably won't win either but the odds seem extremely high. He should be up there in the top 10.

Cummings is my dark horse for tomorrow. I also think Kwiatek will do well. Then the usual suspects Martin, Roglic, Castro,... I want to see Rogla take the yellow jersey of course. And hold it till Paris

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

I'm surprised no one mentioned van Emden. I think of all the specialists the short ITT suits him the most. But he has already done the Giro and his form is a bit unknown right now.

Van Emden said in couple of interviews that he doesn't feel at his best and that his shape is nowhere near the same as it was in the Giro. Plus he blew quite spectacularly in the national TT champs. Beaten by Gesink... So I wouldn't count him as a top favourite. Top 10 though, for sure.

Beaten by Gesink suggests that being beaten by Gesink by definition is bad. Gesink can do really good TT's and he certainly did one at the nationals, but yeah van Emden wasnt good that day, allthough above 30km isnt good for van Emden.
Van Emden shouldnt start this tdf. He got the heads up right after the giro that he would go to the TdF so he started training directly again after the giro which ended up in him being extremely fatigued, yet they stil let him start somehow.

That's what I was thinking, too. His form shouldn't be as good as in the Giro. But still, he is a different beast in short ITTs. I consider him 2nd only to Dennis in ITTs up to 15km when he's in peak form. I don't think he'll win tomorrow, though. For the above mentioned reasons.

What about Felline. He won the prologue in Romandie which was held in similar rainy conditions that are expected for tomorrow. I looked at the odds and couldn't believe when I saw he's is being given at 151. Any word on him. He probably won't win either but the odds seem extremely high. He should be up there in the top 10.

Cummings is my dark horse for tomorrow. I also think Kwiatek will do well. Then the usual suspects Martin, Roglic, Castro,... I want to see Rogla take the yellow jersey of course. And hold it till Paris

Felline also did fairly well in the 2015 Giro TT which was also rainy

 

[Vesica]

As said above, Jos van Emden is one of the favourites. Since hè won the last stage of the Giro, he can win two consecutive stages in two different Grand Tours. (last stage giro and first stage tour). Has this ever happened before? That a rider won two consecutive stages in two following GT's?

 

[Brullnux]

Dennis has to be favourite, no?

Oh lol realise he isn't on the startlist. Why not? Isn't he more useful than Moinard or Schar? He was looking great in Suisse.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I'm surprised no one mentioned van Emden. I think of all the specialists the short ITT suits him the most. But he has already done the Giro and his form is a bit unknown right now.

Van Emden said in couple of interviews that he doesn't feel at his best and that his shape is nowhere near the same as it was in the Giro. Plus he blew quite spectacularly in the national TT champs. Beaten by Gesink... So I wouldn't count him as a top favourite. Top 10 though, for sure.

Beaten by Gesink suggests that being beaten by Gesink by definition is bad. Gesink can do really good TT's and he certainly did one at the nationals, but yeah van Emden wasnt good that day, allthough above 30km isnt good for van Emden.
Van Emden shouldnt start this tdf. He got the heads up right after the giro that he would go to the TdF so he started training directly again after the giro which ended up in him being extremely fatigued, yet they stil let him start somehow.

That's what I was thinking, too. His form shouldn't be as good as in the Giro. But still, he is a different beast in short ITTs. I consider him 2nd only to Dennis in ITTs up to 15km when he's in peak form. I don't think he'll win tomorrow, though. For the above mentioned reasons.

What about Felline. He won the prologue in Romandie which was held in similar rainy conditions that are expected for tomorrow. I looked at the odds and couldn't believe when I saw he's is being given at 151. Any word on him. He probably won't win either but the odds seem extremely high. He should be up there in the top 10.

Cummings is my dark horse for tomorrow. I also think Kwiatek will do well. Then the usual suspects Martin, Roglic, Castro,... I want to see Rogla take the yellow jersey of course. And hold it till Paris

Interestingly enough, Van Emden was leading at the 1st checkpoint at the Dutch nationals. The longer the TT is the more the tiredness kicks in ofcourse

It wasn't all that bad. He'll be fine at a short distance. Not near his best, but still very good.

 

[tobydawq]

As said above, Jos van Emden is one of the favourites. Since hè won the last stage of the Giro, he can win two consecutive stages in two different Grand Tours. (last stage giro and first stage tour). Has this ever happened before? That a rider won two consecutive stages in two following GT's?

Daniele Bennati won on the Champs-Élysées in 2007 and then also won the first stage of the Vuelta.

 

[Tank Engine]

A fairly short, flat TT. It should be ideal for the Riders of Rohan (even if Dennis himself is not here). Porte will be looking to put time into the other GC contenders, but Kung will be contending for the stage. Of course, Martin (Danny boy of course ) will be looking for yellow on home turf. Roglic is clearly in fine form.

I'll go for van Emden. I think here is basically at the tour for this stage (especially as Dennis is elsewhere).

 

[portugal11]

Kwia vs matthews tomorrow... wet conditions is all about bikr handling. Unfotunately, roglic doesn't have skills on the bike

 

[Cance > TheRest]

With no Dennis in the race, this is Tony Martin's time trial to lose.

Hoping for a top 10 or better for Fabio F.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

A fairly short, flat TT. It should be ideal for the Riders of Rohan (even if Dennis himself is not here). Porte will be looking to put time into the other GC contenders, but Kung will be contending for the stage. Of course, Martin (Danny boy of course ) will be looking for yellow on home turf. Roglic is clearly in fine form.

I'll go for van Emden. I think here is basically at the tour for this stage (especially as Dennis is elsewhere).

Its Tony Martin's home turf, Danny boy Martin is from Ireland.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Kwia vs matthews tomorrow... wet conditions is all about bikr handling. Unfotunately, roglic doesn't have skills on the bike

This time trial has a grand total of 12 corners (and some are barely corners) and two hairpins. Over 7km, that's a lot. Over 14km, they have minimal effect.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'll be rooting for Martin.

Tour organizers should have hired Kraftwerk to play a TDF concert at the opening. They are from Dusseldorf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLTNz53DpRs

 

[vedrafjord]

They are playing. Air are the opener: http://granddepart.de/kraftwerk-konzert-am-1-juli-2017/

 

[Robert5091]

Hope everyone makes it home in one piece. Rain due on Sunday too ... those skinny types might suffer.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If we believe the latest PCM 2017, this is the result. So bet on Thomas

1 Geraint Thomas Team Sky 16'26
2 Vasil Kiryienka Team Sky + 1
3 Andrey Amador Movistar Team + 3
4 Chris Froome Team Sky s.t.
5 Stefan Küng BMC Racing Team + 4
6 Jarlinson Pantano Trek - Segafredo + 6
7 Sylvain Chavanel Direct Energie s.t.
8 Peter Sagan Bora - Hansgrohe + 7
9 Primož Roglič Team Lotto NL - Jumbo + 8
10 Richie Porte BMC Racing Team + 9
11 Michał Kwiatkowski Team Sky s.t.
12 Jos Van Emden Team Lotto NL - Jumbo + 10
13 Stephen Cummings Team Dimension Data s.t.
14 Thibaut Pinot FDJ + 11
15 Taylor Phinney Cannondale - Drapac s.t.
16 Jonathan Castroviejo Movistar Team s.t.
17 Dylan Van Baarle Cannondale - Drapac + 12
18 Jesús Herrada Movistar Team s.t.
19 Simon Geschke Team Sunweb s.t.
20 Dmitriy Gruzdev Astana Pro Team s.t.