Tour de France 2017. stage 1: Düsseldorf, 14 km itt

[Cookster15]

Re:

What is the matter with all these Contador delusions? Absolutely nothing suggests he will beat Valverde or Porte today...

Plus considering his crash record in recent Tours AC is more likely to race conservatively today since it is wet. I just hope none of the major favourites crash.

 

[Chomsky]

Last night it looked like the weather favored the late riders with early riders like Kwiakowski and Kirienyka getting the worst of the weather. But now when I look at the forecast it appears to be the opposite with the worst weather for the last 1.5 hours of the
Am I reading the forecast correctly?

 

[Brullnux]

It's a three horse race between Martin, Roglic and Kittel.
I will never understand why Dennis isn't here though. Would have been a cakewalk for him.

I can see him maybe top 10, but a win is a bit of a stretch for him over this distance.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Dennis has to be favourite, no?

Oh lol realise he isn't on the startlist. Why not? Isn't he more useful than Moinard or Schar? He was looking great in Suisse.

I would have thought he'd be a good insurance policy for BMC. Anything can and probably will happen in a GT - including Porte crashing out early. Dennis would definitely be fave for the prologue - from a teams point of view, winning a tt (and maybe 2) and holding yellow for a day or two - that's more than a lot of teams get for the whole race.

+ would be decent support in the mountains.

But I suppose it demonstrates a real confidence in Porte to go the whole hog. i.e. that they're willing to sacrifice some Dennis success for the chance to win the damn race.

Kung isn't a bad option B for this time trial ?

Dennis, for all his talk of becoming a GC man, has yet to show ANY real aptitude when the hills start turning into mountains. Of the 6 GTs he has started, he has only ever finished 2 and only once inside the top 100. At this point of his career, he IS an outstanding ITTer (probably in top 3 in the world) with the capacity to win certain 1 week stage races. With regards to his GC utility as a helper, whilst he could be useful on the flat he'd be much less likely to be around when the road tilts seriously upwards

By good insurance policy, I meant: give BMC a day or more in yellow at the start, and maybe win another tt. Not: be a back up for Porte in GC.

It's insurance in the sense that it's a pretty bankable objective, which is not insignificant for publicity etc.

As for his climbing - sure, he would be unlikely to be there in the finale. But pretty likely to be able to offer some good assistance earlier in the day.

 

[Googolplex]

Re:

Last night it looked like the weather favored the late riders with early riders like Kwiakowski and Kirienyka getting the worst of the weather. But now when I look at the forecast it appears to be the opposite with the worst weather for the last 1.5 hours of the
Am I reading the forecast correctly?

A Finnish weather service seems to be giving lessening rain probabilities towards the end: http://www.foreca.com/Germany/Dusseldorf?details=20170701

 

[Arredondo]

I'll expect some great things from Kittel. Surely top-5, maybe even more?

But i'll hope for the German fans Der Tony wins this. He should be good.

 

[Chomsky]

Re: Re:

Last night it looked like the weather favored the late riders with early riders like Kwiakowski and Kirienyka getting the worst of the weather. But now when I look at the forecast it appears to be the opposite with the worst weather for the last 1.5 hours of the
Am I reading the forecast correctly?

A Finnish weather service seems to be giving lessening rain probabilities towards the end: http://www.foreca.com/Germany/Dusseldorf?details=20170701

Thank you. I am looking at a different site that seems to say the opposite.

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/51.23,6.77

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Last night it looked like the weather favored the late riders with early riders like Kwiakowski and Kirienyka getting the worst of the weather. But now when I look at the forecast it appears to be the opposite with the worst weather for the last 1.5 hours of the
Am I reading the forecast correctly?

A Finnish weather service seems to be giving lessening rain probabilities towards the end: http://www.foreca.com/Germany/Dusseldorf?details=20170701

Thank you. I am looking at a different site that seems to say the opposite.

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/51.23,6.77

Weatherunderground predicts a higher probability of rain towards the evening while yr predicts most rain (but still very little rain) between 14 and 17.

 

[infeXio]

Too short for Cummings?

 

[staubsauger]

It's a three horse race between Martin, Roglic and Kittel.
I will never understand why Dennis isn't here though. Would have been a cakewalk for him.

I can see him maybe top 10, but a win is a bit of a stretch for him over this distance.

Kittel surprises big time today. Mark my words. He's absolutely in for the stage win IMHO! He certainly improved his tt engine recently.

 

[DNP-Old]

I got the ski jumper taking this one.

 

[rehy90]

Why Rohan is not participating this year? He would be the clear favourite for yellow today.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Dennis has to be favourite, no?

Oh lol realise he isn't on the startlist. Why not? Isn't he more useful than Moinard or Schar? He was looking great in Suisse.

I would have thought he'd be a good insurance policy for BMC. Anything can and probably will happen in a GT - including Porte crashing out early. Dennis would definitely be fave for the prologue - from a teams point of view, winning a tt (and maybe 2) and holding yellow for a day or two - that's more than a lot of teams get for the whole race.

+ would be decent support in the mountains.

But I suppose it demonstrates a real confidence in Porte to go the whole hog. i.e. that they're willing to sacrifice some Dennis success for the chance to win the damn race.

Kung isn't a bad option B for this time trial ?

Dennis, for all his talk of becoming a GC man, has yet to show ANY real aptitude when the hills start turning into mountains. Of the 6 GTs he has started, he has only ever finished 2 and only once inside the top 100. At this point of his career, he IS an outstanding ITTer (probably in top 3 in the world) with the capacity to win certain 1 week stage races. With regards to his GC utility as a helper, whilst he could be useful on the flat he'd be much less likely to be around when the road tilts seriously upwards

By good insurance policy, I meant: give BMC a day or more in yellow at the start, and maybe win another tt. Not: be a back up for Porte in GC.

It's insurance in the sense that it's a pretty bankable objective, which is not insignificant for publicity etc.

As for his climbing - sure, he would be unlikely to be there in the finale. But pretty likely to be able to offer some good assistance earlier in the day.

Nice publicity most certainly but then, if he wins, you're stuck with playing pacemaker for the peleton the next day ... unless you contrive to get rid of it ASAP. Why waste your teams energy, especially when you're arguably not the strongest, early in a race when you don't need to ?

I see the Dennis situation of him being a "potentially nice to have" selection for this tour rather than a "must have". Yes, he might win the first stage for you but that has its potential flipside but as a major asset for your peak objective .... case unproven

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

Dennis has to be favourite, no?

Oh lol realise he isn't on the startlist. Why not? Isn't he more useful than Moinard or Schar? He was looking great in Suisse.

I would have thought he'd be a good insurance policy for BMC. Anything can and probably will happen in a GT - including Porte crashing out early. Dennis would definitely be fave for the prologue - from a teams point of view, winning a tt (and maybe 2) and holding yellow for a day or two - that's more than a lot of teams get for the whole race.

+ would be decent support in the mountains.

But I suppose it demonstrates a real confidence in Porte to go the whole hog. i.e. that they're willing to sacrifice some Dennis success for the chance to win the damn race.

Kung isn't a bad option B for this time trial ?

Dennis, for all his talk of becoming a GC man, has yet to show ANY real aptitude when the hills start turning into mountains. Of the 6 GTs he has started, he has only ever finished 2 and only once inside the top 100. At this point of his career, he IS an outstanding ITTer (probably in top 3 in the world) with the capacity to win certain 1 week stage races. With regards to his GC utility as a helper, whilst he could be useful on the flat he'd be much less likely to be around when the road tilts seriously upwards

By good insurance policy, I meant: give BMC a day or more in yellow at the start, and maybe win another tt. Not: be a back up for Porte in GC.

It's insurance in the sense that it's a pretty bankable objective, which is not insignificant for publicity etc.

As for his climbing - sure, he would be unlikely to be there in the finale. But pretty likely to be able to offer some good assistance earlier in the day.

Nice publicity most certainly but then, if he wins, you're stuck with playing pacemaker for the peleton the next day ... unless you contrive to get rid of it ASAP. Why waste your teams energy, especially when you're arguably not the strongest, early in a race when you don't need to ?

I see the Dennis situation of him being a "potentially nice to have" selection for this tour rather than a "must have". Yes, he might win the first stage for you but that has its potential flipside but as a major asset for your peak objective .... case unproven

it is always important to win stages at the tour, easy has that, dennis was a sure thing, they should have brought him.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

Its Tony Martin's home turf, Danny boy Martin is from Ireland.

Oh, I must be mistaken I thought he was from Birmingham

My Scandanavian weather forecaster states that the likelihood of rain at the beginning is 18% going up to 35% by the end, with the wind also strengthening and changing from a cross-wind to a slightly stronger one (16kmh rther than 13kmh) that will be a tailwind for the first part (and thus a headwind on the return section). So it looks like the first guys on the road will have a slight advantage.

 

[Brullnux]

It's a three horse race between Martin, Roglic and Kittel.
I will never understand why Dennis isn't here though. Would have been a cakewalk for him.

I can see him maybe top 10, but a win is a bit of a stretch for him over this distance.

Kittel surprises big time today. Mark my words. He's absolutely in for the stage win IMHO! He certainly improved his tt engine recently.

It's still a bit long for him. A comparable TT in De Panne saw him finish only five or so seconds behind Durbridge, but also behind Kristoff. A win against Martin, Küng and Roglic will be hard. A top 5 or 10 would still be an excellent performance.

 

[saneguy]

Tony Martin FTW surely today!

 

[TomLPC]

"We've got two peoole close to sky, David's sister fran works for them"

Well don't *** ask them about it then

 

[sir fly]

The local belief is - if you spill or splash the water at someone's departure, he/she will have a successful trip.

 

[Arredondo]

Despite the fact the Tour disappoints every year, i'm glad it's on again!

 

[70kmph]

Fog & rain

 

[Sciocco]

Re:

Despite the fact the Tour disappoints every year, i'm glad it's on again!

Yep, the racing is most likely going to be the worst of the season again. Otoh, there's a good chance some stupid shit will happen. Good enough reason to follow.

 

[Finn84]

Re:

Tony Martin in Yellow=Perfect for a start in Germany!

It would be.

Btw, is Steegmans the most recent stage winner in rider's home country in TdF foreign visits?

 

[Tonton]

Gesbert, the birthday kid started first and almost crashed down the ramp...yikes...

 

[sir fly]

I'm not sure the road conditions will improve significantly.