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Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5kms

So...... we head into the final mountain stage with one of the few MTFs we've seen this Tour.
179.5km from the highest city in the European Union to the Col du Izoard.

The Route:
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The Profile:
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The Climbs:

PROFILCOLSCOTES_1.png


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"The Izoard is a 14.1 kilometres climb that is averaging 7.3%. The last 10 kilometres go up at 9% and lead to the forbidding and barren slopes of Casse Déserte. A perfect and dramatic backdrop for the last summit finish in the 2017 Tour de France."

Current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 73:27:26
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:27
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
4 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:00:53
5 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:01:24
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:02:37
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:04:07
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:06:35
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:07:45
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:08:52

The podium is still up for grabs...Its all to play for. :)
 
Large break of stage hunters and AG2R riders serving no particular purpose on this parcours....

Sky train............................................................................................................................................................................................................
........................................................................................................................................to the final climb

Bertie attack ............
Martin attack ----
Bardet attack, Uran and Preying Mantis follow, Aru says goodbye to the podium

On the last MTF in the tour, if the yellow jersey is as strong as anybody else and has a strong team, don't bet against him.

I'd like Bardet to win, but Froome or Uran (in a sprint of 3-4 riders) are more likely. Landa is the elephant in the kitchen.
 
I think most people will be disappointed after tomorrow's stage. Of course, all riders will go all in. But they will go all in within the last 3 kilometres but not earlier. The reason is quite simple: there is no need for it. Froome has no incentives he will just attack at the very end to win the stage. Bardet, Uran and Aru are all fighting for the places on the podium. The gaps are small and there is always the danger totally blowing up after a hard effort. Especially if Sky is riding horrendous tempo on the front group. So all big GC contenders will stay together and will go all in within the last 3 kilometres as there is a lot to lose (the podium spot) and little to win (Froome ist too strong anyway).
 
Re:

Monstre du Cyclisme said:
I think most people will be disappointed after tomorrow's stage. Of course, all riders will go all in. But they will go all in within the last 3 kilometres but not earlier. The reason is quite simple: there is no need for it. Froome has no incentives he will just attack at the very end to win the stage. Bardet, Uran and Aru are all fighting for the places on the podium. The gaps are small and there is always the danger totally blowing up after a hard effort. Especially if Sky is riding horrendous tempo on the front group. So all big GC contenders will stay together and will go all in within the last 3 kilometres as there is a lot to lose (the podium spot) and little to win (Froome ist too strong anyway).
This.

3 kms sounds about right. :razz:
 
Tomorrow's stage is certainly not suited for a long range attack of any top 10 guy. The first half is basically flat and easy to control. The penultimate climb isn't very hard and long itself and there is too much of a downhill and false flat between the last two climbs. So everything is more or less about the last 10 kilometres of the Col d'Izoard. I honestly think there should be enough teams looking for a stage win (Sky, Ag2R, maybe Sunweb and Cannondale as well) so that a break will have a difficult life. Especially a group containing any distant threat for Louis Meintjes won't survive as a top 10 place is really worth to protect.
 
If Ag2r finally would use their team, control the stage, explode into Izoard and attack with 7-8 km to go, this would be good. Thats the only way Bardet can win. But I doubt it will happen since podium is just a big concern with all those riders close.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
If Ag2r finally would use their team, control the stage, explode into Izoard and attack with 7-8 km to go, this would be good. Thats the only way Bardet can win. But I doubt it will happen since podium is just a big concern with all those riders close.

Until the last 7-8 kilometres your scenario is quite realistic. Ag2R will do this. But then it becomes not very probable. There might be one alibi attack of Bardet relatively early but as he will realize quite soon that most contenders will be on his wheel quite easily he will sit after Froome and wait for the last few minutes in order to gain some seconds on Uran and Aru.
 
Aug 16, 2013
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If Uran or Bardet want to win the Tour, they need to attack on Vars and using teammates by sending them up the road.

It's pointless to attack on Izoard, because i think Froome is going to destroy the field. He just waits till the final moment to win this Tour, without using too much energy. You know, La Vuelta is waiting....
 
Re:

DNP-Old said:
Briancon can only mean one thing

AT_AT200710070717010AR.jpg
Such a talented rider but so unlucky :( .

Bardet and Uran probably won't do much as they are pretty much set for the podium. Aru will attack, whether or not he gains time depends on his form. Judging by today, I expect a boring stage.

Anyone else notice that Buchmann has ninja'd his way to 15th overall?
 
May 26, 2009
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The Top 5 or 6 guys on GC to look at each other and hold hands on the final climb, there might be the odd attack, where someone gets a gap looks back then waits for the others to catch up. The stage will end with a 25 meter sprint for the stage. Oh and Kiryienka will control the peloton for like 100km and then he might let another Sky rider have a turn. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
 
Re:

Arredondo said:
If Uran or Bardet want to win the Tour, they need to attack on Vars and using teammates by sending them up the road.

It's pointless to attack on Izoard, because i think Froome is going to destroy the field. He just waits till the final moment to win this Tour, without using too much energy. You know, La Vuelta is waiting....

But if you do this you almost certainly lose your podium spot and it's ridiculous to think that Bardet and Uran don't care about it. The only thing you could do is an all in attack at the bottom like Sastre up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. But as all riders are more or less on the same level every rider will stop in order to prevent another contender staying in the little slipstream. So basically everything comes down to the last 3 kilometres.

The stage also won't be gifted to Landa. The time gaps to Bardet and Uran are too short. It would be quite wise by Froome to gain some time before the time trial as you can always sustain a mechanical or a crash and then it's good to have a small buffer. So I expect a late attack by Froome to gain 15 seconds as well as the time bonus.
 
Re:

hrotha said:
Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.
I think thats the most likely outcome. I like Bardet, but haven't been impressed by him so far. Obviously its easy to sit back and play armchair QB, but he hasn't done everything in his might to win this race at all (despite getting 2nd last year).
Düsseldorf, you robbed us all!