Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5kms

[Taxus4a]

Frfoome aleays has lost time with his main pure climber rival in the last mountain stage, the best one to attack a no pure climber.

So I think tomorrow will be the same, and Froome has not a big advantage, so the Tour is still open.

Anyway he is the main favourite, but tomorrow he wil have all the attack he didnt have today. And one minute is possible, Izoard is no so different to Alp D Huez and Rigo is a very good rider. Sometimes people here told me I overrated him, meybe portugal11, but I do it for something, He is of course a better rider than Aru or Bardet. Aru is especially overrated, he is as Contador a little bit "gaseosas" (soda water)

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

Aru has been showing weaknesses for several stages now. He is certainly the podium contender with the worst shape. It would be very surpising to see him crawling back some time tomorrow. I don't think he will even dare an attack, he is just there hanging on at the back of the group for dear life.

Bardet will be the only one trying to attack Froome, however, it will be more of an alibi attack. He will stop and concentrate for the race for 2nd and 3rd. Uran hasn't attacked at all and I see no reason to change this tomorrow. Maybe at the very end of the stage if he feels really good. But you have to keep in mind that he's the strongest sprinter anyway and as Froome will attack on the latest slopes as well if he has the legs to do so it is the better strategy for him to just stay on the wheels and don't waste any energy. Trying to follow Bardet and Froome and sprinting to a second victory should be his most promising tactic. Attacking Froome would only make sense for him if Froome was in big trouble which is extremely unlikely.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

Plus point to that wheelsucker Uran.

 

[Supimilian]

Cannondale should send what they can of guys up the road and roll the dice on Col de Vars with Rigo. They already have their stage and it makes sense for several reasons.
Not much to lose, because Uran already has second place finishes in the Giro and you don't want to be "that guy" always wheelsucking to second. He also looks like the freshest of the top 3 (maybe a tie). Cannondale already got theirs and would gain absolute mount rushmore hall of fame all time great level notoriety if they could pull it off.
In addition they have a FULL TEAM still.
Ride for the (possibly slim) chance to actually get it all on the biggest stage of all.
Time to do what the poster above's name suggest:
ROLL THEM DICE JV!

 

[Robert5091]

Send some team mates up the road, attack on the steep part of the Col du Vars, then ride like the clappers. Otherwise sit with the Sky train and protect GC spot. AG2R seem the only team interested/capable of anything. The worst TT-ers to try to gain some time.

 

[the chicken from T]

ITT Vuelta (2014) 36.7 k

1MARTINTonyOmega Pharma - Quick-Step
2URANRigobertoOmega Pharma - Quick-Step 0:15
3CANCELLARAFabianTrek Factory Racing 0:18
4CONTADORAlbertoTinkoff - Saxo 0:39
5SÁNCHEZSamuelBMC Racing Team 0:48
6EVANSCadelBMC Racing Team 0:49
7KIRYIENKAVasilTeam Sky 0:57
8VALVERDEAlejandroMovistar 1:00
9SERGENTJesseTrek Factory Racing 1:13
10FROOMEChristopherTeam Sky 01:32

ITT Vuelta (2014) 36.7 k

 

[johnymax]

Roglic to do the double

 

[Supimilian]

Tour-Froome =/= Vuelta-Froome

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Cannondale should send what they can of guys up the road and roll the dice on Col de Vars with Rigo. They already have their stage and it makes sense for several reasons.
Not much to lose, because Uran already has second place finishes in the Giro and you don't want to be "that guy" always wheelsucking to second. He also looks like the freshest of the top 3 (maybe a tie). Cannondale already got theirs and would gain absolute mount rushmore hall of fame all time great level notoriety if they could pull it off.
In addition they have a FULL TEAM still.
Ride for the (possibly slim) chance to actually get it all on the biggest stage of all.
Time to do what the poster above's name suggest:
ROLL THEM DICE JV!

You say not much to lost but I doubt the team care where he finished with Quick-Step. Cannondale want Uran to podium for them, on Le Tour.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: ITT Vuelta (2014) 36.7 k

1MARTINTonyOmega Pharma - Quick-Step
2URANRigobertoOmega Pharma - Quick-Step 0:15
3CANCELLARAFabianTrek Factory Racing 0:18
4CONTADORAlbertoTinkoff - Saxo 0:39
5SÁNCHEZSamuelBMC Racing Team 0:48
6EVANSCadelBMC Racing Team 0:49
7KIRYIENKAVasilTeam Sky 0:57
8VALVERDEAlejandroMovistar 1:00
9SERGENTJesseTrek Factory Racing 1:13
10FROOMEChristopherTeam Sky 01:32

ITT Vuelta (2014) 36.7 k

That happened in another galaxy, long time ago.

 

[Supimilian]

Re: Re:

You say not much to lost but I doubt the team care where he finished with Quick-Step. Cannondale want Uran to podium for them, on Le Tour.

Right.
And I'M saying that's stupid.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

Tour-Froome =/= Vuelta-Froome

Better yet, QS TT Uran =/= Cannondale TT Uran

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

Re: Re:

Cannondale should send what they can of guys up the road and roll the dice on Col de Vars with Rigo. They already have their stage and it makes sense for several reasons.
Not much to lose, because Uran already has second place finishes in the Giro and you don't want to be "that guy" always wheelsucking to second. He also looks like the freshest of the top 3 (maybe a tie). Cannondale already got theirs and would gain absolute mount rushmore hall of fame all time great level notoriety if they could pull it off.
In addition they have a FULL TEAM still.
Ride for the (possibly slim) chance to actually get it all on the biggest stage of all.
Time to do what the poster above's name suggest:
ROLL THEM DICE JV!

You say not much to lost but I doubt the team care where he finished with Quick-Step. Cannondale want Uran to podium for them, on Le Tour.

Yeah, this is just wishful thinking and absolutely no realistic contemplation. This is the Tour and not a *** race. A podium spot is really important.

 

[Supimilian]

Re: Re:

Yeah, this is just wishful thinking and absolutely no realistic contemplation. This is the Tour and not a **** race. A podium spot is really important.

Depends if you think you should gamble for glory with some of the profit you didn't expect to win.
Most here think: Yes
Remember, Uran wasn't supposed to be a top 5 candidate before this bike race. But for all I know he could be so strong they expect him to take that minute on the last climb...

 

[deValtos]

I highly doubt Uran would risk everything from a long way out. When you have not yet had a TDF podium that's a huge deal to stand on the champs at the end of the race. I don't think you can blame him for that and will add a lot to his career.

The one with the least to lose is Bardet, another podium is nice but even if he finishes off it he's so big in france he won't lose any reputation, especially if it's through a gamble and stylish move. I don't think it impacts his career in the same way Uran gambling and missing out might.

Aru's kind of in the middle.

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

You can always gamble. But you have to know the odds. Uran really has a lot to lose. He apparently has contract negotiations this year and a podium spot can earn you a lot of money. Of course, a victory earns you even more money but you can also tumble very deep. In this context you have to take a decision. Uran is not in Bardet's position. Uran also has a better time trialing. He has to calculate his expected utility and the result depends on his risk-aversion. Apparently, his risk-aversion has been much higher this Tour than yours.

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

DaVoltas just has mentioned the emotional aspect. That's absolutely true as well. The feelings on the Champs Elysees are something really special to every rider. Uran has never experienced this and possibly he could never experience it again. He is not the yougest rider anymore and he wasn't expected before the Tour to fight for podium honours. It's just wise if you don't put all eggs into one basket.

Bardet is a different case. DaVoltas explained it very well. He can and should ride more aggressively. However, still an attack on the Vars makes absolutely no sense. Sky is way too strong for that. He can only try an all-in-attack in the way Sastre did it up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. Attacks that don't last for sure are not reasonable. One attacks to increase the probability of winning a race and not to decrease it.

 

[Supimilian]

Re:

DaVoltas just has mentioned the emotional aspect. That's absolutely true as well. The feelings on the Champs Elysees are something really special to every rider. Uran has never experienced this and possibly he could never experience it again. He is not the yougest rider anymore and he wasn't expected before the Tour to fight for podium honours. It's just wise if you don't put all eggs into one basket.

Bardet is a different case. DaVoltas explained it very well. He can and should ride more aggressively. However, still an attack on the Vars makes absolutely no sense. Sky is way too strong for that. He can only try an all-in-attack in the way Sastre did it up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. Attacks that don't last for sure are not reasonable. One attacks to increase the probability of winning a race and not to decrease it.

My point exactly.
Uran has got to do SOMETHING to actually WIN this bike race. Without an attack Froome will need to crack outright on the final climb (not happening).
Telling your grand kids in 50 years how you safely secured a podium spot when you could have went for it...
I'm gonna be sick...

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

DaVoltas just has mentioned the emotional aspect. That's absolutely true as well. The feelings on the Champs Elysees are something really special to every rider. Uran has never experienced this and possibly he could never experience it again. He is not the yougest rider anymore and he wasn't expected before the Tour to fight for podium honours. It's just wise if you don't put all eggs into one basket.

Bardet is a different case. DaVoltas explained it very well. He can and should ride more aggressively. However, still an attack on the Vars makes absolutely no sense. Sky is way too strong for that. He can only try an all-in-attack in the way Sastre did it up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. Attacks that don't last for sure are not reasonable. One attacks to increase the probability of winning a race and not to decrease it.

My point exactly.
Uran has got to do SOMETHING to actually WIN this bike race. Without an attack Froome will need to crack outright on the final climb (not happening).
Telling your grand kids in 50 years how you safely secured a podium spot when you could have went for it...
I'm gonna be sick...

I couldn't agree with you more. If the time gap was bigger, I'd say OK secure the podium spot. But being this close...and who knows, you may never be in that situation again...to me it's a no-brainer. Win or die trying.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Re:

DaVoltas just has mentioned the emotional aspect. That's absolutely true as well. The feelings on the Champs Elysees are something really special to every rider. Uran has never experienced this and possibly he could never experience it again. He is not the yougest rider anymore and he wasn't expected before the Tour to fight for podium honours. It's just wise if you don't put all eggs into one basket.

Bardet is a different case. DaVoltas explained it very well. He can and should ride more aggressively. However, still an attack on the Vars makes absolutely no sense. Sky is way too strong for that. He can only try an all-in-attack in the way Sastre did it up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. Attacks that don't last for sure are not reasonable. One attacks to increase the probability of winning a race and not to decrease it.

I know Uran has been around for ages, but he's actually thirty - two years younger than Froome. Most people are probably aware of this but I was taken aback. He would actually be right around his peak powers, theoretically. Maybe not considering nowadays riders are competitive way into their thirties...

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

Maybe not considering nowadays riders are competitive way into their thirties...

I am not sure of this. Contador is clearly declining, Nibali shows the same signs and even for Froome is suspected to decline by a lot of users. Horner is the exception but certainly not the rule. The same goes for Valverde. It's not that Uran will get plenty of chances again. At least he cannot be certain. If he end 2nd or 3rd is not that important. But Aru, Martin and Landa are still relatively close. You can end up 6th and no one will ever remember you.

Anyway, if Uran is strong enough to beat Froome, then an attack on the Col d'Izoard is more than enough. He doesn't need minutes. It's more or less a minute to get into touching distance and maybe 1:30 to feel a bit of safety. Such distances you can create on the last climb. There, you also see how your competitors for the podium are going and what would you risk going all in. There is absolutely no way an attack at the Allos would be successful. If Froome is so weak that he and his team couldn't make up for the losses on the descent and the false flat, then he would severely crack on the last climb anyway.

 

[Sestriere]

Re:

DaVoltas just has mentioned the emotional aspect. That's absolutely true as well. The feelings on the Champs Elysees are something really special to every rider. Uran has never experienced this and possibly he could never experience it again. He is not the yougest rider anymore and he wasn't expected before the Tour to fight for podium honours. It's just wise if you don't put all eggs into one basket.

Bardet is a different case. DaVoltas explained it very well. He can and should ride more aggressively. However, still an attack on the Vars makes absolutely no sense. Sky is way too strong for that. He can only try an all-in-attack in the way Sastre did it up to Alpe d'Huez in 2008. Attacks that don't last for sure are not reasonable. One attacks to increase the probability of winning a race and not to decrease it.

If carefully prepared I would say an attack on Col de Vars could actually work out. By work out I mean that Bardet could reach the bottom of the Izoard with an advantage while Sky had to use Kwiatkowski in valley to stay in touch.
To achieve this Bardet should go to Aru before the start of the stage and they should make an alliance.
After Galibier Aru has to realise that he won't be able to podium the Tour with a conventional strategy so I could imagine he would agree to such an alliance.
The problem obviously is his very weak team. But even they should be able to get two riders into the break with such a flat start. Bardet gets two riders in as well. They have to hope that Sky let them go far enough to make it over Vars and then Vuillermoz and Latour have to get their act together and really hurt the Sky train before Aru and Bardet take off. I could imagine that Froome would hesitate if they went that far from the finish and rather relies on hin train so that could be the chance.
I admit that things would really have to fall into place for this to work out and maybe it's more wishful thinking but imo they got more to win than to lose.

 

[Supimilian]

He needs an element of surprise. Also, if he has guys up the road he could isolate Froome if he goes after and fire off attacks on both climbs. With just one getting enough time will be very, very difficult. Uran is plenty known with podiums, stages and medals and all kinds of results. Being 7th or 2nd won't matter much. It could even be better as it shows he is willing to put on a show and blow the race apart, even if it fails.
Remember, there are no big contracts for anyone if cycling gets to be so boring that no one is watching in the first place.
It's not even that unlikely that it might succeed either. This is the big one we're talking about here. TdF CHAMPION.

 

[cipurian]

Will Froome wait for him if he gets mechanical?

 

[Supimilian]

Re:

Will Froome wait for him if he gets mechanical?

Only if he promises not to ride for the win.