Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5kms

[Escarabajo]

Re:

If Uran or Bardet want to win the Tour, they need to attack on Vars and using teammates by sending them up the road.

It's pointless to attack on Izoard, because i think Froome is going to destroy the field. He just waits till the final moment to win this Tour, without using too much energy. You know, La Vuelta is waiting....

LOL. :lol:

Your hero was Purito and you expect other riders to attack from far away!


Even with a mechanical or mishap Froome will raise his hand and everyone will stop until he catches up.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

I think most people will be disappointed after tomorrow's stage. Of course, all riders will go all in. But they will go all in within the last 3 kilometres but not earlier. The reason is quite simple: there is no need for it. Froome has no incentives he will just attack at the very end to win the stage. Bardet, Uran and Aru are all fighting for the places on the podium. The gaps are small and there is always the danger totally blowing up after a hard effort. Especially if Sky is riding horrendous tempo on the front group. So all big GC contenders will stay together and will go all in within the last 3 kilometres as there is a lot to lose (the podium spot) and little to win (Froome ist too strong anyway).

This.
3 kms sounds about right. :razz:

Sold!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Purito was a special rider who took advantage of his incredibly anaerobic talent, given how much endurance he had, like Valverde. He obviously messed the Giro up, but he also had some pretty great rides, for example pulling Froome and Quintana to Annecy Semnoz in 2013, more or less from the bottom, to distance Contador and grab podium. That was his winning condition and a absolute monster ride. I had just forgot how much I miss him.

 

[DanielSong39]

If Froome is on form, the only way Bardet/Uran/Aru win is if they pull a Contador up the Verbier.

Even Contador only pulled that off once in his career.

I guess it's theoretically possible Froome has a bad day and praying that he's not on form is really the best chance for the other riders.

 

[Jagartrott]

This stage has 'disappointment' written all over.
Which is why it can only be better then I expect.
(or will it now definitely disappoint, I get confused)

 

[DanielSong39]

I would give Froome a 90% chance of winning the Tour at this point.

Sorry, that's how I see it.

You can always hope for the 10% but there's a reason why it's so small.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Purito was a special rider who took advantage of his incredibly anaerobic talent, given how much endurance he had, like Valverde. He obviously messed the Giro up, but he also had some pretty great rides, for example pulling Froome and Quintana to Annecy Semnoz in 2013, more or less from the bottom, to distance Contador and grab podium. That was his winning condition and a absolute monster ride. I had just forgot how much I miss him.

Yeah, forgot about Purito pulling from far away that day. He was great on that third week.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Please cycling gods, give this one to Berto

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Meintjes to go early on Izoard to try and completely crack Yates and take white.







Who am I kidding.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

Meintjes to go early on Izoard to try and completely crack Yates and take white.







Who am I kidding.

Meintjes follows wheels of GC contenders, hopes Yates cracks.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

I can't see past Froome on this one. Maybe he'll gift it to Landa. A lot of pretenders. Not expecting any fireworks GC wise. The remaining climbers know that they'd have to pull ridiculous time on Froome to not lose out on the ITT, also the stage just isn't hard enough and Sky is too strong.

I do know one way to improve this stage. Make them go over the Col du Parpaillon on their way south before they hit the Vars!

Kidding aside, and assuming they wanted to start in Briançon and finish via Izoard south - more of the Casse Deserte on that side so better TV I guess - then the only better way to do it is via Italy going Montgenévre - Sestriéres then flat into the Col Agnel. They're not easy start/finish points to draw a proper final mountain stage out of. Anything else with proper distance makes you go over the Lautaret and that'll always have tons of flat before the Vars or Izoard.

 

[rick james]

if the dawg wants his stage then the dawg will take his stage

 

[Hexagon]

Re:

if the dawg wants his stage then the dawg will take his stage

:lol: Unfortunately this, unless Uran has been sucking wheels the whole tour for one almighty attack on the last mountain stage.

 

[Billie]

Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

 

[SafeBet]

Bardet sends Naesen and another teammate up the road.
Ag2r goes full gas on Vars to test Aru and other contenders. Not more than 10 riders on top of Vars, with Aru and Yates already being distanced. Bardet attacks on the descent and bridges to Naesen. They gain a minute in the valley.
With Yates already a minute behind, Meintjes decides to take a pull and then tells the camera: in yo face CN forum!
At the bottom of Izoard Landa signs a contract with Ag2r. He then stops working for Froome who has to chase himself for the whole climb.
Froome eventually cracks. Uran attacks, bridges to Bardet and then outsprints him to take the second place and the yellow jersey. Both are outsprinted by Contador who wins the stage.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I would give Froome a 90% chance of winning the Tour at this point.

Sorry, that's how I see it.

You can always hope for the 10% but there's a reason why it's so small.

So you're saying that there IS a chance?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

And why would he listen then?

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: Re:

I would give Froome a 90% chance of winning the Tour at this point.

Sorry, that's how I see it.

You can always hope for the 10% but there's a reason why it's so small.

So you're saying that there IS a chance?

Well, let's look at the possibilities.

Very small chance that Froome crashes/cracks and DNF or loses minutes (~1%).
Small chance that Bardet/Uran/Aru gains a few seconds. That gives them small (but not zero) hope in the time trial (~15%). So instead of having a 100% chance of winning, Froome only has a 80-90% chance of winning.
Some combination Bardet/Uran/Aru ST with Froome (~50%). The ones who survive have a mathematical chance of winning the lottery (~5-10%).
Froome bosses it (34%) and only a Vino event can prevent him from winning (1%, since you never know).

These numbers are rough but should give you an idea of what can happen.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

It likely wouldn't have mattered, with his attacks not being all-in and the others (mainly Uran) just being content to get back into the wheels. Nevertheless, DS should STFU in these matters. God, this annoys me to no end. Let riders ride, FFS.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

And why would he listen then?

Because is was a smart move dah. Seriously tho, I would also want to know this!

 

[Poursuivant]

I hope this one doesn't go to the break tbh, I'd like to see a GC shootout.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

And why would he listen then?

Because honestly they both knew it would have gone about as well as Martin's attack a couple of kms later did?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Bardet to attack 2-3 times in the final 3 km, fail to dislodge Froome because duh then claim he tried everything he could.

'I animated this race' are the exact words

Fact is he wanted to attack 8kms from the summit of the Galibier but his DS told him to wait.

And why would he listen then?

Because is was a smart move dah. Seriously tho, I would also want to know this!

Yeah I really want to know what DS'es have over their team leaders in situations like this because it pisses me off, both because it makes racing worse and because I imagine not wanting to be told what to do when I'm riding till I caugh my lungs out.

 

[python]

unless bardet attacks early enough to break down the dawg, the doggy is got this tour in his pocket...

personally, i'd prefer aru over bardet and the dawg, but seeing his apparent weakness today, i doubt aru's a real contender anymore. martin will certainly spice the race, but today he showed a small power deficit likely to stay relevant tomorrow.