Tour de France 2019 stage 14: Tarbes - Tourmalet 117 km

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Will Alaphilippe lose the maillot jaune tomorrow?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 22.9%
  • No

    Votes: 64 77.1%

  • Total voters
    83
  • Poll closed .
Re: Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
sir fly said:
I'd never guess it's been 9 years since Soulor previously featured.
But I clearly remember Contador - Schleck duel throughout that Tour. Head and shoulders above the field they were.

And right when I thought no one's thinking about the OPs, Simurgh comes up with this.
Well done.
That's cos it isn't. It was in last year's route as a stop off en route to the Aubisque. We also saw it in 2012 in the Route du Sud.
It was used from the other side both times though, so the OP is partly correct. ;)
 
I have a feeling that ineos isn't at their best, and G might not be able to attack, more hold and limit losses. I think this could be a stage for Porte. He is actually looking in good form, knows how the sky train works and have the ability to attack.

And with the current time loss, might be able to be given a bit of rope with someone like dan Martin, especially if G isn't in top form.

Would also love to see Aru in an early break. A shorter stage might suit him considering this is his comeback from surgery
 
Re:

observer said:
I have a feeling that ineos isn't at their best, and G might not be able to attack, more hold and limit losses. I think this could be a stage for Porte. He is actually looking in good form, knows how the sky train works and have the ability to attack.

And with the current time loss, might be able to be given a bit of rope with someone like dan Martin, especially if G isn't in top form.

Would also love to see Aru in an early break. A shorter stage might suit him considering this is his comeback from surgery
Yes think you are right, can see Porte giving it a go and GT not attacking.
 
Re:

DenisMenchov said:
I think we're all underestimating Mas, he's shown that he can be great in the third week of GC last year in the Vuelta. He topped most of the opponents he's facing now - Kruijswijk, Uran, Nairo, Pinot... And we have to assume he's a better rider than he was last September. I think that he's DQS's true leader.
Correct.
 
Hard to predict the breakaway as no climbs early to allow the stage hunting climber types to get out front easier so they will probably have to cling onto to the Matthews/Clarke/De Gendt types on the flatlands.

I think a GC rider will win the stage and my prediction is a 2 up sprint between Dan Martin and Mikel Landa with Thomas tipping clear late on and finishing solo in 3rd.

Bardet and Valverde to lose big time and drop all thoughts of a top 5 finish
 
Very nice job on the OP Simurgh. This stage is very intriguing at many levels:

1. Is Jalaphilippe the tortoise to Geraint the hare? Is he stronger than we think, better prepared that we think, and blowing a smoke screen with his "meh, there's no chance that I can win ze Tour"? And today...he took time. Thomas is now taking him seriously as stated in his post-race interview. If the Tourmalet is fast pace and raced as a 2 km drag race, Jalaphilippe may salvage most of his cushion. And begin to hope.

2. We still don't know who the best climber is, so predictions are a mix of guessing and fanboy-ism.

3. Is Ineos less strong than in years past or has that team simply managed their energy, waiting for the Tourmalet to destroy everybody?

We'll know a lot more after tomorrow.
 
Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Btw, for those that didn't know, tomorrow is Colombias national day.

A win tomorrow, makes a colombian rider a national hero for life.

Bernal, Quintana, Uran and Henao will all be especially motivated for winning the stage tomorrow.
Inb4 Nairo and Rigo ride as negatively as humanly possible
 
Thomas will want to collect another big one after he won on Alpe d'Huez last year. And he's honestly looked bulletproof so far. So why not win tomorrow?

JA will lose the jersey halfway up Tourmalet, now that his buffer is larger than before today:D
 
Apparently in an interview after today's ITT Valverde was asked what he expected from the Tourmalet. His response was, "I expect to reach the top." I mean, I would hope so. Then he said he has no idea what the strategy for the stage is going to be. So I wouldn't expect much from him, but this isn't exactly a great climb for him either. However, if Landa is feeling good, this could be a great time for him to attack and try something.
 
As others have stated it feels imperative that Ineos drops Ala at minimum 2 KMs before the summit. Failing that with his absurd form and uphill sprinting ability he seems liable to take several more seconds on less explosive riders. Even if we assume that the high altitude shifts the balance of power into GTs hands, dueling for a stage win and seconds is insufficient for Thomas given the time differentials. Not to mention tomorrow's stage has lower altitude...

If feel pressure is on Ineos. Quickstep has the luxury of having Mas follow wheels and play his own cards if Ala falters.
 
I'm not so sure Alaphilippe will be dropped, based on what I've seen so far I can just as easily see him dropping the others. Obviously anyone can have a bad day at any time though.

People were thinking Carapaz would be dropped too.
 
Re:

DanielSong39 said:
I'm not so sure Alaphilippe will be dropped, based on what I've seen so far I can just as easily see him dropping the others. Obviously anyone can have a bad day at any time though.

People were thinking Carapaz would be dropped too.
Nobody expected Alaphilippe to crack until Fuglsang attacked on Roche au Faucons, and then he went backwards like an ag2r rider in a TT. He may yet surprise us (even more than he already has) with how long he lasts, but when he blows, it’s very likely he’ll blow spectacularly.
 
Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Thomas will want to collect another big one after he won on Alpe d'Huez last year. And he's honestly looked bulletproof so far. So why not win tomorrow?

JA will lose the jersey halfway up Tourmalet, now that his buffer is larger than before today:D
I think they may not break him tomorrow.

They may put at minute into him though, but I do not expect a big gap.

I hope I am wrong though, because that would mean the stage had been ridden aggressively ;)
 
Re:

DanielSong39 said:
I'm not so sure Alaphilippe will be dropped, based on what I've seen so far I can just as easily see him dropping the others. Obviously anyone can have a bad day at any time though.

People were thinking Carapaz would be dropped too.

The big difference here is that Carapaz finished in the top 5 last year in the Giro, so he had shown he can ride GC in a GT before this year.
 
Worst possible scenario: Ineos train controls the race. Wout Poels takes the lead on the Tourmalet. Alaphilippe loses minutes, while the camera stays with the national hero. Thomas takes yellow without attacking. The others start thinking of the remaining two podium spots.

Best possible scenario: Bernal, Mas and Landa attack on the Soulor. Astana leads the pursuit in the valley. Thomas gets dropped like a stone on the Tourmalet. Quintana counterattacks and wins the stage. Alaphilippe holds on to yellow by a small margin.
 

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