Tour de France 2019 stage 14: Tarbes - Tourmalet 117 km

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Will Alaphilippe lose the maillot jaune tomorrow?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 22.9%
  • No

    Votes: 64 77.1%

  • Total voters
    83
  • Poll closed .
Re:

DanielSong39 said:
I'm not so sure Alaphilippe will be dropped, based on what I've seen so far I can just as easily see him dropping the others. Obviously anyone can have a bad day at any time though.

People were thinking Carapaz would be dropped too.
Horner and VandeVelde were talking as if Ineos was worried about Ala. I don't see it. Even if he was in great shape and his climbing was significantly improved, he has burned so many matches. They'll grind him down. May not be tomorrow. Maybe not even Sunday. But eventually. Up to others behind Thomas to put time into him.
 
Re: Re:

sir fly said:
Anderis said:
sir fly said:
I'd never guess it's been 9 years since Soulor previously featured.
But I clearly remember Contador - Schleck duel throughout that Tour. Head and shoulders above the field they were.
Who would have thought after 2010 Tour that neither Contador nor Schleck would ever win another TdF again. They were still young and so much ahead of the rest.
Yes. Different misfortunes they've experienced, but the outcome's pretty much the same.
We'll never know how Andy would deal with Sky train.
Truly stunning. Especially since Andy was in the white jersey then.

Not seeing Andy against Sky is one of the great disappointments in cycling history. Wiggins won such a depleted Tour that Tj was fifth in that race. Contador as never the same after the suspension. Sigh.
 
Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.

The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.

Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.

- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart? ;)

Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.

I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....it wouldn't be smart at all to try anything long range on stage 14.

This is only the very first high mountain stage. No reason for anyone to try anything crazy yet.

Especially as we are coming off an ITT, an ITT that was relatively short, and soft-pedalled by many domestiques.

Also, the Tourmalet is difficult enough to make some nice differences on its own, if you have the legs. And more importantly to show any weaknesses in rivals.

After having the Tourmalet in their legs, stage 15 is the stage where it may make sense to send a couple of riders up the road, gaining a nice gap as they ascend the early category 2 climb, and then seeing some GC riders win hearts with long range attacks, for the final 75 kms ascend three mountains, with very little riding in valleys.

The final climb is not as hard as the Tourmalet either; therefore it is less scary to attack from far out. Also, there is a rest day the day after.

So for guys like Uran, Quintana, Fuglsang, Yates and Porte; if they have the legs, then it is seconds on Saturday, minutes on Sunday.
 
Re: Re:

gregrowlerson said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.

The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.

Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.

- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart? ;)

Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.

I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....it wouldn't be smart at all to try anything long range on stage 14.

This is only the very first high mountain stage. No reason for anyone to try anything crazy yet.

Especially as we are coming off an ITT, an ITT that was relatively short, and soft-pedalled by many domestiques.

Also, the Tourmalet is difficult enough to make some nice differences on its own, if you have the legs. And more importantly to show any weaknesses in rivals.

After having the Tourmalet in their legs, stage 15 is the stage where it may make sense to send a couple of riders up the road, gaining a nice gap as they ascend the early category 2 climb, and then seeing some GC riders win hearts with long range attacks, for the final 75 kms ascend three mountains, with very little riding in valleys.

The final climb is not as hard as the Tourmalet either; therefore it is less scary to attack from far out. Also, there is a rest day the day after.

So for guys like Uran, Quintana, Fuglsang, Yates and Porte; if they have the legs, then it is seconds on Saturday, minutes on Sunday.

So Sunday is when Movistar should send half their team up the road. I'd try to get Soler, Amador, Landa and maybe Valverde if he loses a bit more time tomorrow into the early break and see if Quintana is willing to try to bridge to them, otherwise with that group of 4 they have a great chance of one of them going after the stage win.
 
Who are we kidding? Ineos has this under complete control. Alaphilippe will lose yellow today. Thomas will win the Tour by simply following the wheels of his teammates for the next nine days. The others will only ride for the places of honor.
 
Scarponi said:
Indurain would have won 10 tours in a row with these short mountain stages, gives absolutely zero chance for riders like Quintana to do anything.
Quintana won a short mountain stage last year. On a good day he should be able to perform well on the Tourmalet, but he has become unpredictable.
 
Apr 19, 2009
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In the TT Alaphillippe produced more watts/kg than Thomas in a sustained aerobic effort (I assume that JA weighs less than GT). Based on that alone, Alaphillippe should win the tour.
He might lose it due having spent more energy in the previous days or not having prepared for altitude/GC racing.
But predictions are fun, so I'm calling it: Alaphillippe will not be dropped and will win this bike race.
 
Pantani_lives said:
Scarponi said:
Indurain would have won 10 tours in a row with these short mountain stages, gives absolutely zero chance for riders like Quintana to do anything.
Quintana won a short mountain stage last year. On a good day he should be able to perform well on the Tourmalet, but he has become unpredictable.

Yes, but that stage was of the /\/\/ type: some well connected hard climbs without much flat in between. This year we have mountain stages that consist of one or two not too difficult climbs separated by long valley roads before a mtf (only exception is the stage to Valloire). I mean, starting from Albertville they could have put the south side of the Madeleine (19km @ 8%) right before the Climb to Val Thorens, now we have some 2nd category which is barely harder than what you can find in the Ardennes.
 
Re:

jonjungel said:
In the TT Alaphillippe produced more watts/kg than Thomas in a sustained aerobic effort (I assume that JA weighs less than GT). Based on that alone, Alaphillippe should win the tour.
He might lose it due having spent more energy in the previous days or not having prepared for altitude/GC racing.
But predictions are fun, so I'm calling it: Alaphillippe will not be dropped and will win this bike race.
Maybe on the climbs, but in TTs the generally relevant relevant metric is W/m2. In comparison to specialists and ex trackies Alaphilippe does not have an excellent position with his relatively rounded back and upright pelvis, which makes his dominance even more incredible.

But yes, would not be too surprised if he holds on. He is oozing watts.
 
Re: Re:

gregrowlerson said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.

The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.

Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.

- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart? ;)

Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.

I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
No it isn't :)
 
Ineos will control the stage, and try to drop Alaphilippe on Tourmalet, but I think Landa will exploit that situation and attack somewhere in the last 5km. It will be interesting to see what will Mas and Bernal do then.
 
I have a feeling Ala will attack today to disrupt the Ieos train and give Mas a chance to gain time overall. If he attacks, then the GC guys are gonna have to follow, thus breaking up Ineos. Then it will be up to the other overall contenders to keep the Ineos train dismantled. If Mas attacks or any other GC serious contender attacks then I can imagine Bernal going with them, keeping G with the train. I think they have Ala where they want him (but yes taking him serious for now) but are cautious of letting Mas and co get closer. For the win today, I'm gonna go with NQ, followed by G and Yates.
 
Re: Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
gregrowlerson said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.

The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.

Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.

- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart? ;)

Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.

I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
No it isn't :)
I hope you are right, but I do not see anything meaningful happening on the penultimate climb today (unless JA being dropped this early happens, which is possible).
 
Mar 6, 2011
1,677
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Re: Re:

gregrowlerson said:
Broccolidwarf said:
gregrowlerson said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.

The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.

Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.

- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart? ;)

Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.

I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
No it isn't :)
I hope you are right, but I do not see anything meaningful happening on the penultimate climb today (unless JA being dropped this early happens, which is possible).
Thing is even if Alaphillipe is dropped early I dont think it will make others more aggressive
 
Fans are going to be fans. Some suggestions here do not make sense at all TBH. Of course we always want Pantanesk performances for every stage but we all know that's not going to happen. And the chances for that to happen are very slim.

In reality we will see the Ineos train putting a high pace for 2 reasons:

1- Control all attack for Thomas who is in the driving seat. Except for Ala which bring me to point 2.
2- High pace to drop Ala.

They won't try anything different until they actually see that Ala won't drop in these big mountains.
 
Apr 23, 2018
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This is merely the 3rd or 4th stage I get to see because of timing. Ive been working my ass off. Finally a weekend of and its the mountains. I except some racing and it seems that a lot of gc guys are already out of the running so maybe somebody just wants to this stage. S. Yates again maybe?
 

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