There are only 4 MTFs left. Those who are more than 2 mins in arrears will have to make long range attacks
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And just when they are about to attack they remember they are at the tdf after all and instead stay in the peloton for the whole dayIndianCyclist said:There are only 4 MTFs left. Those who are more than 2 mins in arrears will have to make long range attacks
DanielSong39 said:I'm not so sure Alaphilippe will be dropped, based on what I've seen so far I can just as easily see him dropping the others. Obviously anyone can have a bad day at any time though.
People were thinking Carapaz would be dropped too.
sir fly said:Yes. Different misfortunes they've experienced, but the outcome's pretty much the same.Anderis said:Who would have thought after 2010 Tour that neither Contador nor Schleck would ever win another TdF again. They were still young and so much ahead of the rest.sir fly said:I'd never guess it's been 9 years since Soulor previously featured.
But I clearly remember Contador - Schleck duel throughout that Tour. Head and shoulders above the field they were.
We'll never know how Andy would deal with Sky train.
Broccolidwarf said:Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.
The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.
Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.
- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart?
Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.
I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
gregrowlerson said:Broccolidwarf said:Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.
The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.
Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.
- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart?
Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.
I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....it wouldn't be smart at all to try anything long range on stage 14.
This is only the very first high mountain stage. No reason for anyone to try anything crazy yet.
Especially as we are coming off an ITT, an ITT that was relatively short, and soft-pedalled by many domestiques.
Also, the Tourmalet is difficult enough to make some nice differences on its own, if you have the legs. And more importantly to show any weaknesses in rivals.
After having the Tourmalet in their legs, stage 15 is the stage where it may make sense to send a couple of riders up the road, gaining a nice gap as they ascend the early category 2 climb, and then seeing some GC riders win hearts with long range attacks, for the final 75 kms ascend three mountains, with very little riding in valleys.
The final climb is not as hard as the Tourmalet either; therefore it is less scary to attack from far out. Also, there is a rest day the day after.
So for guys like Uran, Quintana, Fuglsang, Yates and Porte; if they have the legs, then it is seconds on Saturday, minutes on Sunday.
Quintana won a short mountain stage last year. On a good day he should be able to perform well on the Tourmalet, but he has become unpredictable.Scarponi said:Indurain would have won 10 tours in a row with these short mountain stages, gives absolutely zero chance for riders like Quintana to do anything.
Pantani_lives said:Quintana won a short mountain stage last year. On a good day he should be able to perform well on the Tourmalet, but he has become unpredictable.Scarponi said:Indurain would have won 10 tours in a row with these short mountain stages, gives absolutely zero chance for riders like Quintana to do anything.
Maybe on the climbs, but in TTs the generally relevant relevant metric is W/m2. In comparison to specialists and ex trackies Alaphilippe does not have an excellent position with his relatively rounded back and upright pelvis, which makes his dominance even more incredible.jonjungel said:In the TT Alaphillippe produced more watts/kg than Thomas in a sustained aerobic effort (I assume that JA weighs less than GT). Based on that alone, Alaphillippe should win the tour.
He might lose it due having spent more energy in the previous days or not having prepared for altitude/GC racing.
But predictions are fun, so I'm calling it: Alaphillippe will not be dropped and will win this bike race.
lol aye like Nairo would attack anywayScarponi said:Indurain would have won 10 tours in a row with these short mountain stages, gives absolutely zero chance for riders like Quintana to do anything.
Pantani_lives said:Does anyone have a decent list of the climbing records on the Tourmalet? Ullrich's 47:36 in 2003 is the fastest time I can find. Schleck and Contador did 50:05 in 2010.
http://www.climbing-records.com/search?q=tourmalet
gregrowlerson said:Broccolidwarf said:Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.
The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.
Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.
- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart?
Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.
I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
Broccolidwarf said:gregrowlerson said:Broccolidwarf said:Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.
The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.
Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.
- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart?
Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.
I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
No it isn't
gregrowlerson said:Broccolidwarf said:gregrowlerson said:Broccolidwarf said:Tomorrow we will see who has the courage the reach out for the win - and who is happy to plod along for a marginal chance at the podium behind Thomas.
The aggressive ones send 2-3 doms out in the early break, and then attack already on the cat. 1, to catch the teammates at the top, and use them for the flat bit leading to Tourmalet and halfway up it.
Porte, Fuglsang, Martin, Yates, Quintana, Uran, Pinot and Buchmann are all out of contention for the win, unless they try something dramatic....... "the tour is long" won't cut it anymore, nor will gaining 20 seconds here and there, or leaving it for the last stage in the Alps, with all kinds of excuses.
- Who is ready to win hearts and who lacks heart?
Personally, I'd rather see a rider finish 13th after having tried and left it all on the road, than someone finishing 5th after riding defensively on the Ineos coattails...... and then talking about their "bad luck" not giving them a podium finish.
I expect Martin and Pinot to try...... of the rest, I hope for the best and fear the worst.
What you are suggesting is all heart and zero brain....
No it isn't
I hope you are right, but I do not see anything meaningful happening on the penultimate climb today (unless JA being dropped this early happens, which is possible).