Tour de France 2019

[rick james]

Re: Re:

I don’t see the train in the mountains from ineos being that strong....

don't know what its saying

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

don't know what its saying

They are putting pressure on Bardet and Pinot: This year or never.

They say, that chances are better then ever with Froome and Tom missing + G being not in his best shape after the crash.

 

[Laplaz]

BORA-hansgrohe

Patrick Konrad
Emanuel Buchmann
Peter Sagan
Daniel Oss
Gregor Mühlberger
Lukas Pöstlberger
Marcus Burghardt
Maximilian Schachmann

They named Konrad and Buchmann as shared leaders for the GC. With Sagan going for another green.

No Bodnar? Could have been very useful in the TTT. Nonetheless a very strong team.

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

don't know what its saying

They are putting pressure on Bardet and Pinot: This year or never.

They say, that chances are better then ever with Froome and Tom missing + G being not in his best shape after the crash.

and then they wonder why Pinot prefers riding the Giro

 

[MADRAZO]

BORA-hansgrohe

Patrick Konrad
Emanuel Buchmann
Peter Sagan
Daniel Oss
Gregor Mühlberger
Lukas Pöstlberger
Marcus Burghardt
Maximilian Schachmann

They named Konrad and Buchmann as shared leaders for the GC. With Sagan going for another green.

No Bodnar? Could have been very useful in the TTT. Nonetheless a very strong team.

Pöstlberger instead of Bodnar is a big surprise indeed, Bodnar seemed to have quite good form even and is usually also very close to Sagan, and Pöstlberger hasn't really shown much this year either.

 

[Cookster15]

Who of the GC contenders handles heat better? Obviously Bernal would. 2019 is looking like 2003 conditions - days over 40C. This needs to be factored in when discussing possible contenders. Also if the leader's teams are weakened because domestiques wilt in the heat then they will be exposed.

 

[Sciatic]

Re:

Who of the GC contenders handles heat better? Obviously Bernal would. 2019 is looking like 2003 conditions - days over 40C. This needs to be factored in when discussing possible contenders. Also if the leader's teams are weakened because domestiques wilt in the heat then they will be exposed.

Current forecast for the first 3-4 days of racing in Belgium and northern France is for highs around 25C. Anything beyond 10 days out is not even in the forecast. Chances of it being in the 40s this July are probably greater than they would have been during the Julys of the '60s and '70s, but just because it's 45C in the Gard today doesn't mean it will be that hot there a month from now.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Who of the GC contenders handles heat better? Obviously Bernal would. 2019 is looking like 2003 conditions - days over 40C. This needs to be factored in when discussing possible contenders. Also if the leader's teams are weakened because domestiques wilt in the heat then they will be exposed.

Current forecast for the first 3-4 days of racing in Belgium and northern France is for highs around 25C. Anything beyond 10 days out is not even in the forecast. Chances of it being in the 40s this July are probably greater than they would have been during the Julys of the '60s and '70s, but just because it's 45C in the Gard today doesn't mean it will be that hot there a month from now.

Well from the reports I have been reading of hot air mass driving over France from Africa it may cool down by the 3rd week. But the first two weeks are likely to be hit by the heatwave. So riders who handle that heat better will be fresher come the business end of the race.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Do you not remember last year? They still had Froome, Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo in a group of 20/25. They have enough climbing strength. Van Baarle showed he’s climbing well in the Dauphine and Kwiatkowski is climbing ready by the look of things after today’s result in Poland’s TT.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Plus if Moscon finds his 2017 Vuelta legs then they have no chance of isolating Bernal/G.

 

[OnTheRivet]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Normally this would be true but as typical Skyneos have transformed Rouleurs into climbing freaks. Watch van Baarle at Daphine and Rowe at Suisse. Moscon is an interesting pick as he's shown spotty form this year. Kwiat is a consummate pro, he's always at race weight and on form when expected. I'm still suspect on Bernal, his ride in TDS was not as dominating on a weaker feild as it should have been.

 

[Cookster15]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Do you not remember last year? They still had Froome, Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo in a group of 20/25. They have enough climbing strength. Van Baarle showed he’s climbing well in the Dauphine and Kwiatkowski is climbing ready by the look of things after today’s result in Poland’s TT.

Yep. And we should remember whilst Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo can't ride GC they can hold a huge pace for a 45 minute climb which is exactly how they prevented any attacks in 2018. GT and Bernal finish it off. Even Castro, van baarle and rowe play a huge rule in helping the climbers in the team to conserve energy until its really needed.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

don't know what its saying

They are putting pressure on Bardet and Pinot: This year or never.

They say, that chances are better then ever with Froome and Tom missing + G being not in his best shape after the crash.

Yep. Pressure, hype, the July circus, and this time, yes, our two Frenchies have a small but still a shot at glory.

For me Romain is an enigma: he hasn't looked that great in '19. The AG2R squad will lose quite a bit of time in the TTT and since Bardet's ITT is suspect at best, he may find himself on the eve of July 19th with a sizable deficit. Can he make it up afterwards? Doubtful. But he can pull a ninja attack like the one that got him his 2nd place or who knows a Carapaz.

For Pinot, one question-mark is durability, particularly during what may be the hottest July on record. After that, GFC is fielding a solid group but to me underwhelming. Considering how most recent GTs have been seen small time gaps, a great TTT will be crucial. I would have put Thomas and/or Ludvigsson in the team at the expense of maybe Ladagnous and definitely Gaudu. Keep the Breton for La Vuelta instead of trying a Movistar losing scheme of attempting to build a Skyneos train and wind up irrelevant. Basically, for Tibopino, we can get feast or famine but if he prepared well as he has done for the '17 and '18 Giro/Giri, he'll be there and (please God) at or near the top.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Do you not remember last year? They still had Froome, Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo in a group of 20/25. They have enough climbing strength. Van Baarle showed he’s climbing well in the Dauphine and Kwiatkowski is climbing ready by the look of things after today’s result in Poland’s TT.

Yep. And we should remember whilst Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo can't ride GC they can hold a huge pace for a 45 minute climb which is exactly how they prevented any attacks in 2018. GT and Bernal finish it off. Even Castro, van baarle and rowe play a huge rule in helping the climbers in the team to conserve energy until its really needed.

I think Astana are going to throw Bilbao or Izagirre out in the early break, on the big mountain stages, starting with stage 6. I also think Movistar are going to do the same with Landa or Valverde.

It is the one way they can force Ineos to work hard, early on the big stages, so at to be less powerful when it counts, on the last mountain.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Who of the GC contenders handles heat better? Obviously Bernal would. 2019 is looking like 2003 conditions - days over 40C. This needs to be factored in when discussing possible contenders. Also if the leader's teams are weakened because domestiques wilt in the heat then they will be exposed.

Quintana doesn't do as well in the heat.

Spaniards in general do well in the heat, so Mas should be good with it. I would think Porte would do well with it as he's Australian. (Valverde thrives in the heat, but he's insisting he's not riding for GC, plus there's a lot of altitude in this year's Tour.)

 

[Lequack]

Eurosport commentator are ready

 

[Tonton]

I think Astana are going to throw Bilbao or Izagirre out in the early break, on the big mountain stages, starting with stage 6. I also think Movistar are going to do the same with Landa or Valverde.

It is the one way they can force Ineos to work hard, early on the big stages, so at to be less powerful when it counts, on the last mountain.

Stage 6? Not so sure. GFC will ride, trying to mitigate any deficit after the TTT, have Pinot on his home turf take the 8 seconds atop Cheveres, and get a GC shake up early on.

 

[Publicus]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Aren't you forgetting Poels?

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

don't know what its saying

They are putting pressure on Bardet and Pinot: This year or never.

They say, that chances are better then ever with Froome and Tom missing + G being not in his best shape after the crash.

Well they have a point. I guess the Colombian media might be doing the same with Quintana ?

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

don't know what its saying

They are putting pressure on Bardet and Pinot: This year or never.

They say, that chances are better then ever with Froome and Tom missing + G being not in his best shape after the crash.

Well they have a point. I guess the Colombian media might be doing the same with Quintana ?

It would appear that way. He hasn't had a very good lead up to the Tour either. Plus throw in the heat that he doesn't do as well with and it's not a good combination.

Yes Thomas and Bardet haven't exactly had very good lead-ups to the Tour either.

 

[Robert5091]

Last time up La Planche des Belles Filles (2017)
1. Fabio Aru (ita)
2. Daniel Martin (irl) + 0.16
3. Chris Froome (gbr) + 0.20
4. Richie Porte (aus) + 0.20
5. Romain Bardet (fra) + 0.24
6. Simon Yates (gbr) + 0.26
7. Rigoberto Uran (col) s.t.
8. Alberto Contador (spa) s.t.
9. Nairo Quintana (col) + 0.34
10. Geraint Thomas (gbr) + 0.40

Everyone who's down on time after the TTT will be hoping to get seconds back.

Maybe stage 12 up to Peyragudes in 2017 may give a better idea of what might happen when Froome conceded some 22 seconds in the last 300 metres, and lost the yellow jersey in the process to Aru.

 

[Velolover2]

What's the chance of GC action as early as stage 3 now they have added bonus seconds on top of Mutigny?

If Alaphilippe is not comfortable in sprinting against Sagan, Matthews and perhaps Van Aert, he might want to attack and take a few of the climbers with him.

Imagine a quartet of Alaphilippe, Adam Yates, Fuglsang and Bernal. They'll never see them again.

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

What's the chance of GC action as early as stage 3 now they have added bonus seconds on top of Mutigny?

Mmm ... nope. Too early. Sorry!

 

[Velolover2]

I agree. But the Tour organizers designed it as a stage made for attacks with the bonus seconds.

If Alaphilippe isn't in the jersey after the TTT, I could see him trying to get as many bonus seconds as possible with a pseudo-attack at the top of Mutigny. There are 8 nice seconds to the first rider (and 5 + 3 to 2nd & 3rd).

Guys who are great at short, steep climbs like Yates, Martin, Bernal, Fuglsang.. those guys need all the seconds they can get.

 

[rick james]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Normally this would be true but as typical Skyneos have transformed Rouleurs into climbing freaks. Watch van Baarle at Daphine and Rowe at Suisse. Moscon is an interesting pick as he's shown spotty form this year. Kwiat is a consummate pro, he's always at race weight and on form when expected. I'm still suspect on Bernal, his ride in TDS was not as dominating on a weaker feild as it should have been.

About Van Baarle
‏

@ammattipyoraily
Jun 16

More
Ineos is more or less ready for Tour de France. Van Baarle - 6th climber on paper - is able to push ~26 Kph (my ideal speed on flat) on ascent with avg. gradient of 6.28 %. For 19:21. The dilemma is how to attack and build a time gap from that pace. High altitude not tested yet.