Tour de France 2019

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

I agree. But the Tour organizers designed it as a stage made for attacks with the bonus seconds.

If Alaphilippe isn't in the jersey after the TTT, I could see him trying to get as many bonus seconds as possible with a pseudo-attack at the top of Mutigny. There are 8 nice seconds to the first rider (and 5 + 3 to 2nd & 3rd).

Guys who are great at short, steep climbs like Yates, Martin, Bernal, Fuglsang.. those guys need all the seconds they can get.

Gaps should be way bigger than that, after a 27 k TTT.....But then, DQ could be one of the top teams for it, so you may be right.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I agree. But the Tour organizers designed it as a stage made for attacks with the bonus seconds.

If Alaphilippe isn't in the jersey after the TTT, I could see him trying to get as many bonus seconds as possible with a pseudo-attack at the top of Mutigny. There are 8 nice seconds to the first rider (and 5 + 3 to 2nd & 3rd).

Guys who are great at short, steep climbs like Yates, Martin, Bernal, Fuglsang.. those guys need all the seconds they can get.

Gaps should be way bigger than that, after a 27 k TTT.....But then, DQ could be one of the top teams for it, so you may be right.

The 2015 TTT was 28km with a steep climb at the end. 3rd place was at 4s, and 8th was at 48s. Yes, somebody with GC ambitions will lose 2 minutes, but a lot of others will still be close enough that bonus seconds will make a difference.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Last time up La Planche des Belles Filles (2017)
1. Fabio Aru (ita)
2. Daniel Martin (irl) + 0.16
3. Chris Froome (gbr) + 0.20
4. Richie Porte (aus) + 0.20
5. Romain Bardet (fra) + 0.24
6. Simon Yates (gbr) + 0.26
7. Rigoberto Uran (col) s.t.
8. Alberto Contador (spa) s.t.
9. Nairo Quintana (col) + 0.34
10. Geraint Thomas (gbr) + 0.40

Everyone who's down on time after the TTT will be hoping to get seconds back.

Maybe stage 12 up to Peyragudes in 2017 may give a better idea of what might happen when Froome conceded some 22 seconds in the last 300 metres, and lost the yellow jersey in the process to Aru.

I could see someone (Bardet?) trying to gain some seconds in the stage before. The final descent into Colmar looks pretty tricky. Flat run-in to the finish line, though, but mostly on a minor road, correct?

 

[Blanco]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Yeah, but in July they are always frightening! Luke Rowe in July is climbing on par with Bilbao and Izagirre, not to mention Van Baarle and Moscon...

 

[Blanco]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Do you not remember last year? They still had Froome, Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo in a group of 20/25. They have enough climbing strength. Van Baarle showed he’s climbing well in the Dauphine and Kwiatkowski is climbing ready by the look of things after today’s result in Poland’s TT.

Yep. And we should remember whilst Poels, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Castroviejo can't ride GC they can hold a huge pace for a 45 minute climb which is exactly how they prevented any attacks in 2018. GT and Bernal finish it off. Even Castro, van baarle and rowe play a huge rule in helping the climbers in the team to conserve energy until its really needed.

I think Astana are going to throw Bilbao or Izagirre out in the early break, on the big mountain stages, starting with stage 6. I also think Movistar are going to do the same with Landa or Valverde.

It is the one way they can force Ineos to work hard, early on the big stages, so at to be less powerful when it counts, on the last mountain.

Valverde will try to be in the break that day almost certainly. It's an ideal scenario for him, if he fails in that break he will lose time just as he planned, and if he doesn't fail, then..

 

[tobydawq]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Yeah, but in July they are always frightening! Luke Rowe in July is climbing on par with Bilbao and Izagirre, not to mention Van Baarle and Moscon...

No, Rowe really doesn't climb that well, even in the Tour.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I doubt Moscon will be on fire, either. Basically, team support will probably be excellent if Bernal is a dom. If not, then probably not.

 

[Laplaz]

Re: Re:

What's the chance of GC action as early as stage 3 now they have added bonus seconds on top of Mutigny?

Mmm ... nope. Too early. Sorry!

Fuglsang disagrees

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Honestly Ineos climbing squad doesn't look that frightening. Moscon and kwiat are a bit of an unknown bernal and thomas are both in protected roles and Castro, van baarle and rowe all aren't great climbers. It might actually be possible to derail that train with enough fire power

Hahahaha

I urge you to watch both Dauphine and Suisse again.
:lol:

 

[Velolover2]

Rowe is mostly for the flat parts but he is their only rider for that job.

Castroviejo and Van Baarle aren't pure roleurs, they are fine climbers. Van Baarle might be better uphill than Moscon and Kwia this year. I except him to last for a long time in the harder stages.

 

[Tonton]

Only once has LPDBF been raced preceded by the Col des Chevreres. It was in '14.

1. Nibali
2. Pinot at 15"
3. Valverde at 20"
4. Peraud st
5. Bardet at 22"
6. TJVG st
7. Porte at 25"
8. Konig at 50"
9. Purito at 52"
10. Nieve at 54"

As Robert already wrote, it's possible to mitigate TTT losses right then and there.

 

[Rollthedice]

Only once has LPDBF been raced preceded by the Col des Chevreres. It was in '14.

1. Nibali
2. Pinot at 15"
3. Valverde at 20"
4. Peraud st
5. Bardet at 22"
6. TJVG st
7. Porte at 25"
8. Konig at 50"
9. Purito at 52"
10. Nieve at 54"

As Robert already wrote, it's possible to mitigate TTT losses right then and there.

Different finish at PdBF this year, some 150 m wall at the end, up to 24%, serious zigzagging incoming.

 

[Red Rick]

Only once has LPDBF been raced preceded by the Col des Chevreres. It was in '14.

1. Nibali
2. Pinot at 15"
3. Valverde at 20"
4. Peraud st
5. Bardet at 22"
6. TJVG st
7. Porte at 25"
8. Konig at 50"
9. Purito at 52"
10. Nieve at 54"

As Robert already wrote, it's possible to mitigate TTT losses right then and there.

Different finish at PdBF this year, some 150 m wall at the end, up to 24%, serious zigzagging incoming.

Doesn't the regular finish there have that too?

Anyway, stupid gradients in the final hundreds of meters. Yay

 

[Rollthedice]

Only once has LPDBF been raced preceded by the Col des Chevreres. It was in '14.

1. Nibali
2. Pinot at 15"
3. Valverde at 20"
4. Peraud st
5. Bardet at 22"
6. TJVG st
7. Porte at 25"
8. Konig at 50"
9. Purito at 52"
10. Nieve at 54"

As Robert already wrote, it's possible to mitigate TTT losses right then and there.

Different finish at PdBF this year, some 150 m wall at the end, up to 24%, serious zigzagging incoming.

Doesn't the regular finish there have that too?

Anyway, stupid gradients in the final hundreds of meters. Yay

1km longer climb this time. Official profile:

 

[Gigs_98]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

 

[Red Rick]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

Especially with the flat part that comes before the initial kick to the original line.

 

[Tonton]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

I hope not, and it's in the contenders' best interest to shred the peloton on Chevreres, a toughy, before a fast descent and not much flat to the final climb. We could have a very small 20-30 riders left comes the half way point, the ramp where Aru attacked will see action. i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

 

[Pantani_lives]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

 

[Koronin]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

 

[Amazinmets87]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Do you fancy Valverde's chances on stage 3?

 

[Koronin]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Do you fancy Valverde's chances on stage 3?

As long as the break doesn't stay away and decide the stage. Then yes I do think Valverde has a good chance to win stage 3 if they come to the finish together.

 

[RunningRouleur]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Alaphilippe?

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Alaphilippe?

Ha. Yeah fair to say he’s in the conversation!

 

[Koronin]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Alaphilippe?

Yes he would be in the list of puncheurs.

 

[Tonton]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

Let's just say that I have worked on the stage OP for about two months .