Tour de France 2020 | Stage 12 (Chauvigny - Sarran, 218 km)

[SHAD0W93]

Sagan to pull a 2011 Hushovd and win from the break ahead of superior climbers.
If not Van Aer5 to win.

 

[The Barb]

There seems to be quite a few people suggesting Sagan will go in the break but I kinda can't see how that will happen. DQS will chase down any break in which he's involved.

I like Cavagna and Impey to win.

 

[RedheadDane]

I like Cavagna and Impey to win.

You have to pick one.

 

[Bolder]

I think Ala is likely, he seemed to deliberately lose a chunk of time yesterday

Was going to say this -- he dropped back in the last 10k and softpedaled. I think he'll attack from the Suc de May unless the break stays away. But I think some other puncheurs (GVA?) might be targeting this stage too. Should be some great scenery also.

 

[The Barb]

Hehe, you're quite right! I meant "or".

Cavagna it is.

 

[SKSemtex]

As Bennett is part of the best classic team in the world and they have no GC aspiration the fight for green is over. Bora will probably try to do something today but I am afraid Bora´s power is half of DQS, Bennett is no Kittel, and Sagan 2020 is not Sagan 2017.
If the things will not work out today I do hope Bore reconsider Ackermann Giro position and Sagan's schedule towards classics (as he can be on the top form there without the Tour third week).

 

[ppanther92]

The fight for green should be over indeed. Sagan is climbing better than Bennett but where should he capitalize on? DQS is strong, so they can bring back breaks and Bora lost Mühlberger yesterday. Thats one guy that could drop most of the DQS riders uphill gone for them.

 

[Netserk]

the final (categorized) climb is ~3k at 10% average. He'll be dropped like a stone there, if it's game on for the stage win (and maybe gc gaps)

If he wants to win green, #14 is (and always was going to be) the decisive stage, where he can potentially make up 50 points

He was only 6 seconds slower than Alaphilippe on Côte de la Croix Neuve in 2018. The climb today is ~2.4 km @ 10 %, so definitely easier. It's also with more than 25 km to go. If in a breakaway, how big do you think the gap has to be before it's impossible for Sagan to close it to someone like Ala?

 

[gregrowlerson]

TGTDG is paying $1.50 for the stage win.

 

[gregrowlerson]

My hope is for a long-range attack from a rider who is just close enough in the GC standings to entice teams to chase.

"Kung attacks! And going with him it's Panda! Um, I mean Landa."

 

[TommyPlus]

Cavagna FTW!

 

[SafeBet]

Not entirely clear form the profile: is the intermediate sprint at the top of a small bump?

 

[Leinster]

Not entirely clear form the profile: is the intermediate sprint at the top of a small bump?

Probably very short, probably more like a false flat.

 

[Netserk]

Not entirely clear form the profile: is the intermediate sprint at the top of a small bump?

 

[Red Rick]

I think all the "what will the sprinter teams do" stuff will come to nothing and it will be terribly obvious this stage goes to the break like 10 kilometres in. My only question is, is Alaphilippe far enough back in the gc to be allowed to join it.

Yeah I remembered this is the Tour as well

 

[ThePirate81]

Alaphilippe,Van Avermaet,Schachmann and Hirschi should battle for the win.
Hirschi to drop all of them on the hardest climb soloing to the finish.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Well, plotting the last 20K from map at letour.fr into earth.google.com and looking at street view indicates a very technical route indeed.
Twisty, small roads inside dense forest most of time.
So if peleton is within reach of breakaway in the final, I expect plenty of crashes.
Otherwise if the breakaway is given huge line, it could well be split up into atoms, perfect for a solo escape from the break in the final.

 

[bambino]

Although this stage will probably not cause any major shakeups on the GC, I'm wondering if any team captain feeling really good and improving (tune: Bernal) orders his team to make this stage hard to increase (potential) attrition of his rivals toward the upcoming more decisive stages. At the end, this is +200km and properly hilly to tire many legs in the peloton for days to come. It could also be defensive strategy of JV to take the edge off from the likes of Pogacar.

 

[search]

He was only 6 seconds slower than Alaphilippe on Côte de la Croix Neuve in 2018. The climb today is ~2.4 km @ 10 %, so definitely easier. It's also with more than 25 km to go. If in a breakaway, how big do you think the gap has to be before it's impossible for Sagan to close it to someone like Ala?

I think it's difficult to compare 2018 Sagan with today, as he clearly is in way worse shape (although improving). And nor do I see him being allowed to enter the breakaway. But well, yeah, depending on the compesition of the groups, he probably could make up 30-40s or so.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Not entirely clear form the profile: is the intermediate sprint at the top of a small bump?

Try looking at Google Street View. It's a bit uphill, some 3-4% I think

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Gonna be a fast start of the stage. They might even reach the intermediate within the first hour. Or thereabouts at least.

 

[search]

there's a profile in the Roadbook, and according to that it's not particularly tough

 

[Martin]

GvA kept silent to win this one.

 

[PunchingRouleur]

If Alaphilippe wants to go with breakway, Sagan should just sit on his wheel and make DQS to think about their priorities. I would assume they would prefer stage win with Ala.

 

[tobydawq]

The fight for green should be over indeed. Sagan is climbing better than Bennett but where should he capitalize on? DQS is strong, so they can bring back breaks and Bora lost Mühlberger yesterday. Thats one guy that could drop most of the DQS riders uphill gone for them.

Each year, there are plenty of punctures on the Champs. If Bennett gets one there at an inopportune moment, he could be doomed.