Tour de France 2020 | Stage 13 (Châtel-Guyon - Puy Mary, 191.5 km)

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Maybe another bonus for Roglic but the break probably has a good shot. Someone like Rolland maybe, De Gendt might look for something easier. Zakarin has his usual issues with descents but will probably try anyway. GC top 10 should get a shake up at least. Pogacar probably won't be able to restrain himself, Jumbo will probably take a wait and see attitude. Quintana, Landa and others get another chance to show what they have. Be nice to see Quintana risk his position on GC and go all in but he probably won't. Never really been his style. I think they have to at least test Roglic's legs and Pogacar would be the obvious one to try. Whether he can continue to keep doing that until the TT remains to be seen. I thought Bernal showed some improvement on the previous climbing stage. Richie Porte's final chance for another top five GC result ? Losing a chunk of time here will mean the end for that aim. If he can stay in contact with riders like Landa on GC the time trial should move him up.
Unfortunately Zakarin is out of the race with a broken rib.


I think a large break group will form. Someone in this group will be around 8 - 10 minutes behind yellow jersey. And group will finish the race around 11 minutes before Yellow jersey so Roglič will loose it. In last climb Roglič does nothing, then Bernal attacks with Roglič and Pogačar following wheels. Then Pogačar goes and doesn't look back. Roglič again on his wheel, Bernal falls behind but catches them before finish.
Did you even check the GC? There's literally no one between 4 and 12 minutes behind Roglič...
 
imo this will confirm the likely overall winner.

Roglic should smash this. If he doesn't I think it's likely he's going to get found out over the remainder of the race.

(that or he's the single most defensive rider in history)
Why should he ride any other way at this stage in the Tour?

If you have a strong team then playing strong defense is the same as going on offense.

I hope someone takes a flyer today, but I fear his rivals are too close, timewise -- ie, if you go too soon and can't hold the attack you'll be losing far more than if you just yo yo'ed off the back of Roglic.

This could be a decisive stage but the Alps stages are really, really hard. Loze is a climb that could see someone lose Pinot-level chunks of time.
 
Finishing climb.

A climber from the break for the stage. I pick Thomas de Gendt... what a surprise. :p

I'm not sure these 2,5 km to the line suits Roglic so much, a gradient is extremely high. It is just a pure power climbing, no hiding, no following wheels, no strategy except yoyo. The strongest shall win, even small weakness can create big damage.

Expect quite big gaps, top 10 GC contenders will finish in the range of 2 or even 3 minutes.

GC finish:
  1. Landa
  2. Pogacar + 0:15
  3. Martin s.t.
  4. Bernal + 0:25
  5. Roglic + 0:30
  6. Badret s.t.
  7. Quintana + 0:45
  8. Porte + 1:00
  9. Uran +1:30
  10. Lopez s.t.
  11. Mas s.t.
  12. Yates +2:00
  13. Mollema s.t.
  14. Carapaz s.t.
  15. Big Tom +3:00
  16. Valverde s.t.
  17. Caruso s.t.
 
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Why should he ride any other way at this stage in the Tour?

If you have a strong team then playing strong defense is the same as going on offense.
Because while having a strong team is very useful they can't bail you out of everything? Even peak Sky had days where Froome took a packet - he'd just built himself such a comfortable margin that it didn't matter.

I just think Roglic could have made the race situation a lot easier for himself as he's clearly had the legs to attack the rest, but as it is he's still going to be a bad day away from losing out to any number of riders.

I wonder if Ineos shouldn't ride hard cause if it's a Mende 2018 situation and Roglic is super fresh there's no doubt he'll tear everyone a new one
I think so unless Bernal is on a bad day - Even if it doesn't ride some the finish out of Roglic / JV they are hoping on Bernal basically breaking him later so a bit more fatigue in the legs is probably a good thing.

I can't see Bardet gaining /being allowed gain 30s on Roglic. But he did win that stage up the steep ramp to Peyragudes, so might be able to judge that right, and get 21s plus a time bonus.
I can't see Bardet living with it if the pace is serious enough early on, but if he's there close to the top he'll surely try
 
By the way I dont think gaps will be that big. Mende doesnt really have large gaps and this doesnt have the sudden transition from flat to 10% climbing. Its also shorter than Mende, however theres no 2km of flat after.

Mas de La Costa last year had the first 4 finish within 6 seconds
 
Dan Martin is an interesting pick here. Hasn't shown anything after crashing early, but the route should suit him. Has to get in the breakaway first though. Gaudu's another rider that should do well here. And Skujins will be in the break, saved himself yesterday and Trek are interested in the team's classification I think.
 
By the way I dont think gaps will be that big. Mende doesnt really have large gaps and this doesnt have the sudden transition from flat to 10% climbing. Its also shorter than Mende, however theres no 2km of flat after.

Mas de La Costa last year had the first 4 finish within 6 seconds
Mas de la Costa didn't have the profile that this stage does. There will be a lot of fatigue in the legs by the final ramp here. Small gaps will become very big.
 
Should be an interesting finish. Would be ideal for Valverde in his prime but not sure he's going well enough at the moment.

Hopefully Sagan can get 20pts at the inter sprint by either being in the break or Bora doing an attacking train providing Sagan can make it over the 1st and 2nd climbs with the front group.
 

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