Tour de France 2020 | Stage 13 (Châtel-Guyon - Puy Mary, 191.5 km)

A finish atop a super-steep ramp with little space at the summit in the middle of nowhere... yet this is not the Vuelta. The stage supposedly has the highest elevation gain of any stage in the race.

Map


Profile


Timetable
Start: 11:50
Col de Ceyssat: 13:02/13:05/13:07
Col de Guéry: 13:43/13:49/13:53
Montée de La Stèle: 14:16/14:24/14:31
Intermediate sprint: 14:49/14:58/15:07
Côte de l'Estiade: 15:19/15:29/15:40
Côte d'Anglards-de-Salers: 15:53/16:06/16:18
Col de Neronne: 16:28/16:43/16:57
Finish at Pas de Peyrol: 16:47/17:02/17:17

Climbs
The opening ramp through Châteaugay is roughly 3k at 6%, I couldn't find a profile, but it should help the stronger climbers if the breakaway forms early. 25 kilometers in, the riders tackle a proper climb, the cat. 1 Col de Ceyssat.

The race heads through the Monts Dore up the cat. 3 Col de Guéry and then reaches the harder climb of Montée de la Stèle.

A long, gradual descent follows this climb, the intermediate sprint is at a flatter section near its end. The terrain remains undulating, but the Côte de l'Estiade and the Côte d'Anglards-de-Salers aren't too hard. With 15k to go, the business end of the stage finally starts, first with the Col de Néronne from its previously unused steepest side...

...then the Pas de Peyrol, also from its steepest side, although this one has been used quite often. It's the final 11.3k of the profile below, a flat and a short descent from the summit of Néronne, then 3.5 easy and 2 brutally steep kilometers to the finish.


General classification after Stage 12
  1. Primoz Roglic
  2. Egan Bernal + 0.21
  3. Guillaume Martin + 0.28
  4. Romain Bardet + 0.30
  5. Nairo Quintana + 0.32
  6. Rigoberto Uran s.t.
  7. Tadej Pogacar + 0.44
  8. Adam Yates + 1.02
  9. Miguel Ángel López + 1.15
  10. Mikel Landa + 1.42
Points classification after Stage 12
  1. Sam Bennett 252
  2. Peter Sagan 186
  3. Bryan Coquard 155
  4. Caleb Ewan 155
  5. Matteo Trentin 146
Mountains classification after Stage 12
  1. Benoît Cosnefroy 36
  2. Marc Hirschi 31
  3. Nans Peters 31
  4. Toms Skujins 24
  5. Quentin Pacher 21
Young riders classification after Stage 12
  1. Egan Bernal
  2. Tadej Pogacar + 0.23
  3. Enric Mas + 1.41
  4. Sergio Higuita + 12.54
  5. Daniel Felipe Martinez + 1.03.20
 
Expecting Sagan to try and get in the break, Deceuninck to shut everything down until the first climb, and then a group with stronger climbers to get away, making it too hard for Jumbo to control things on their own and nobody will help them with a finish like this.
 
Expect large break at least 30 people. This is 100 per cent breakaway stage. Bora need to get to the break at least with 3 people including Sagan and Buchmann and Schachmann or Grosschartner. If I was QS I would not chasing Sagan but instead put Ala to break with 2 teammates and try to drop Sagan from break before intermediate. Break battle will be exciting. GC not so much. Hirschi for the back to back win.
 
Expecting Sagan to try and get in the break, Deceuninck to shut everything down until the first climb, and then a group with stronger climbers to get away, making it too hard for Jumbo to control things on their own and nobody will help them with a finish like this.
Maintain an iron-like grip on proceedings for all of 25km.

It's a break day, but the GC group will get lively in the final 30kms.
 
But who would you expect in the break? After the amazing efforts we have seen so far?
Maybe Soler. Kämna could try. Alaphilippe will try, but he might be suffering after today. Hirschi, for at least a while, to get some mountain points? Cosnefroy? I think most of the guys who could go won't, because they are supposed to protect their leaders. Most likely Mitchelton will try seriously.

No... I'm going with Turgis, Nieuwenhuis, Juul-Jensen and Cavagna. Cavagna to proceed alone from k 135 and get caught at 178. Pogacar is going to win this stage.
 
My crystal ball says that here's the breakaway:
Andrey Amador, Peter Sagan, Lennard Kamna, Mikael Cherel, Nans Peters, Dries Devenyns, Sebastien Reichenbach, Daniel Martinez, Dayer Quintana, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Carlos Verona, Niklas Eg, Alexey Lutsenko, Omar Fraile, Mikel Nieve, Dan Martin, Fabien Grellier, Cyril Barthe, Pierre Rolland
 
Expect large break at least 30 people. This is 100 per cent breakaway stage. Bora need to get to the break at least with 3 people including Sagan and Buchmann and Schachmann or Grosschartner. If I was QS I would not chasing Sagan but instead put Ala to break with 2 teammates and try to drop Sagan from break before intermediate. Break battle will be exciting. GC not so much. Hirschi for the back to back win.
That would be nice, but I don't think Sunweb will have enough leverage to get him off the front again after his efforts today, and he's going to be tired for that brutal finish. Another climber?
 
One for the break, 30 riders. The surprise will be when there's Carapaz and Valverde in it. Would be nice.
Look at the GC times now. there is a huge break between 17- Valverde and 18- Chaves. So it almost like anybody below 18 can go in a break. Anybody above 18 can't.
So Chaves, Higuita, Rolland, Barguil, Hirschi have freedom. If Hirschi wants the KOM jersey then is all his.
 
Sep 7, 2020
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Look at the GC times now. there is a huge break between 17- Valverde and 18- Chaves. So it almost like anybody below 18 can go in a break. Anybody above 18 can't.
So Chaves, Higuita, Rolland, Barguil, Hirschi have freedom. If Hirschi wants the KOM jersey then is all his.
Will he be going for it?
Think hes got great chance
 
If the break is allowed to go far enough up the road (enough to take the stage win), I'm not sure how intense the GC battle will be at the end, since the bonus seconds on the penultimate climb and finish will no longer be available. I could be wrong (and often am).
 

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