Tour de France 2020 | Stage 17 (Grenoble - Méribel Col de la Loze, 170 km)

[Red Rick]

That's actually possible.


Don't get it either. If Pogacar ends up winning the stage and they gift him time bonifications by riding now I'll lmao. Roglic must feel really good I guess

Maybe they'll slow down on the Madeleine instead and it's better to give Carapaz minutes on the climb.

We've all tuned in to watch a Tony Martin ITT.

 

[SafeBet]

Why the f*ck is Alaphilippe even trying. That's 100% a make a show for the fans move to go into the break. No way in hell he can win on that final climb.
As much as I like him, I feel like it would be wiser to save energy for a final breakaway attempt on stage 19.

What's the worst case scenario though? Dropped after 2 km on Loze and gets a ton of screening time? Much better than dropped after 2 km on Loze after hiding the whole day in the bunch I guess.

Why are you watching this stage anyway?

 

[BlueRoads]

Plenty of people watching the tour are very casual viewers, so they don't realize that he really has no chance here. They'll say "at least he tried". So he's doing it for them and his image with the wider audience as a relentless attacker. Maybe he wants the super-combativité.

Still one would think a possible second stage win would be more desirable than "at least he tried".

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

It may well be that no-one has ever looked up this stat before (ITV4 ad breaks are very long) but:

Worst last place in the team classification (since mid 1980s, which is how far back PCS have full listings rather than just the top 5) is MG Maglificio Technogym at 9h48 in 1997, then Orica Greenedge in 2015 at 8h45; Lotto Soudal are already 11h10, and look likely to add about an hour today.

 

[Red Rick]

What's the worst case scenario though? Dropped after 2 km on Loze and gets a ton of screening time? Much better than dropped after 2 km on Loze after hiding the whole day in the bunch I guess.

Why are you watching this stage anyway?

I expect him to get dropped on the Madeleine.

 

[SKSemtex]

Ewan back now that the peloton has switched to coffee ride mode. It’s a bit ominous that Lotto didn’t send the rest of his tour group back to him though. Got to admire his determination

LOL on my status, he is out.
I did not think that Peloton would take first half as my Sunday ride.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Everyone in that break must be going well today because it was a test of strength to get in it and the likes of Martinez, Soler and Madouas tried and failed

 

[gregrowlerson]

IF the break survives (10% chance), then surely Julian still has some chance of winning though? I mean, the guy can climb, to some degree. And it's only four opponents, not 180. Two of which rode pretty hard yesterday. Well, so did Julian. But he is unpredictable. And he wouldn't be taking on the Slovenians.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It may well be that no-one has ever looked up this stat before (ITV4 ad breaks are very long) but:

Worst last place in the team classification (since mid 1980s, which is how far back PCS have full listings rather than just the top 5) is MG Maglificio Technogym at 9h48 in 1997, then Orica Greenedge in 2015 at 8h45; Lotto Soudal are already 11h10, and look likely to add about an hour today.

Lol

 

[Eclipse]

At some point my Bahrain to light it up prediction will come true so why not today. I can't believe they tried at least a little team effort at the Dauphine but won't here

 

[titan31]

IF the break survives (10% chance), then surely Julian still has some chance of winning though? I mean, the guy can climb, to some degree. And it's only four opponents, not 180. Two of which rode pretty hard yesterday. Well, so did Julian. But he is unpredictable. And he wouldn't be taking on the Slovenians.

I'd be shocked if it wasn't Carapaz or Kamna if someone won from it

 

[ice&fire]

I expect him to get dropped on the Madeleine.

Drop who? Alaphilippe or Gigs?

 

[memyselfandI]

IF break stays away Carapaz will be out to prove a point to Kamna

Or Kämna is there to underline something for us..and maybe for Carapaz too.

 

[Eclipse]

Drop who? Alaphilippe or Gigs?

If Gigs is here nobody is getting dropped all day

 

[gregrowlerson]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't Carapaz or Kamna if someone won from it

Those guys would certainly be favoured, but we're not talking Fulgsang outsprinting Roglic here.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't Carapaz or Kamna if someone won from it

Yeah, Martin has been nowhere near his normal level and Alaphilippe is neither at last years level nor as good a climber. It’s hard to see either of them winning although I’d be very happy to be wrong

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Outside chance of rain on the Madeleine descent although more likely it will come on the final climb

 

[BlueRoads]

IF the break survives (10% chance), then surely Julian still has some chance of winning though? I mean, the guy can climb, to some degree. And it's only four opponents, not 180. Two of which rode pretty hard yesterday. Well, so did Julian. But he is unpredictable. And he wouldn't be taking on the Slovenians.

I give him 0,001% chance to win. In case Carapaz and Kämna, and best Izagirre, too, crash, and he doesn't. Okay, maybe I see him differently than he sees himself, in that case he probably knows better...but he's still a puncheur, not a climber. Apart from last year I can't remember him climbing great on a climb of more than 7k.

About those 10%: yeah, would be my guess, too. But I will go if they let this go to the break...

 

[roundabout]

Outside chance of rain on the Madeleine descent although more likely it will come on the final climb

Pogi time

 

[Eclipse]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't Carapaz or Kamna if someone won from it

Yeah. it'll be an interesting battle if it is the two of them though.

Caparaz was clearly a bit wasteful in his attacking yesterday and got caught out when Kamna had enough left to counter past him but the real difference was the flat power. I think I'd probably skew it to Carapaz given the finale but who knows, Kamna keeps offering up pleasant surprise after pleasant surprise

 

[gregrowlerson]

Drop who? Alaphilippe or Gigs?

Surely this is when many a boyfriend has been dropped, for obsessively keeping track of numbers on mountain stages.

It's another reason why LaFlo and Alberto would be perfect for each other

 

[BlueRoads]

Kämna gained a lot on Carapaz on the flatter part, no?

 

[Fergoose]

I'm always a bit baffled why blocking the road is permitted. Can we take it to the logical extension and stop the peloton completely? I fully understand JV (and Bora) doing it as it is a dream break from their perspective that will probably mean zero action on the Madeleine - but it isn't a great tactic to permit in a road 'race' from a spectators perspective.

Same with Ineos early in the race swinging their train from side to side on the road with Kwiatowski to block all rivals. That just seemed downright dangerous (and idiotic if you arent even contesting a sprint).

My Kamna pick looks a near a certainty now. Nobody is beating him today unless Martin has much better form than I expect or Kamna struggles with altitude.

 

[Red Rick]

Drop who? Alaphilippe or Gigs?

Alaphilippe. I could try to drop Gigs but he's done nothing wrong.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Doesn’t look like the break has any chance unless JV decide to climb reeeaaal slow which doesn’t seem likely