Tour de France 2020 | Stage 18 (Méribel - La Roche-sur-Foron, 175 km)

[topcat]

I could've seen this stage being breakaway by 20 minutes if todays stage and tomorrow were reversed.

But they aren't and it should be a good one.

I can't find any reason why Dumoulin shouldn't attack Col de Saisies.

Roglic is the reason. Dumo will be used to chase down attacks. Mal will probably be happy with podium but it's possible he could win if he went for it.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Roglic has the Tour all but sealed. The only men who can stop him are Pogacar and Lopez. Will either of them try anything?

Pogacar should. It's easy for him to think, "I'm 21, I'll have many more opportunities to win", but you can never be so sure. Being within a minute of yellow heading into the final mountain stage is a position that very few riders will ever find themselves in. He could have many opportunities down the line to podium, but at the moment he has a really good opportunity to win. I hope he fights for it.

For Lopez, his podium looks safe and the win looks unlikely. He's an aggressive rider and, with Vino screaming in his ear, he might just try something crazy. He doesn't have the strongest team but they'll try something none the less.

Despite Landa's poor showing today, Bahrain are probably going to try a similar tactic today. They kind of have to; 7th place is not worth protecting, and the two minute deficit to Lopez isn't going to cut itself. Surely Landa will attack from far. Even if he fails spectacularly, he's unlikely to finish this Tour any lower than 8th/9th.

No one else in the top 10 will really try anything.

 

[Flamin]

It seems like not many have the same high expectations from this stage is i have. This is easily the best stage of the Tour to cause havoc, put team mates in the break and benefit from them in the last 30k.

Yeah, JV is far and away the best team and obviously has no incentive to ride aggressively, but still, they could be put to the test here or maybe they'll give someone like Mas a bit of leeway which then would trigger other teams to protect their GC spot.

Landa also could try something again if he still has the confidence. It didn't really work out today but he didn't do too bad either despite dropping early. And Bahrein looked more than decent so why not give it another go. He's got nothing to lose for sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone from the top 5-7 cracks heavily either.

Or JV just totally smothers it.

 

[Northerner]

that strikes me as pretty weird. It’s the last chance for riders who are better climbers than TTers to gain rather than lose time.

His view:

It probably will be a day for the break, but it would have to be a very strong breakaway, made up of climbers outside of the general classification battle. The Montee du plateau des Glieres is too far from the finish - with 30km still to go for the GC guys - to try to attack each other for time today.
Rider to watch: Warren Barguil (Fra/Arkea-Samsic)

 

[roundabout]

I hope it's just a bluff, because the climb is difficult enough to come over in groups of one and two should somebody really want it.

And then there would be, wait for it

wait for it,

wait for it

30km to try to extend the margins

 

[SafeBet]

Will he go for it?

Hooe he does

Is that your opinion or what hes said? Backed him at 200/1 for kom
Got a chance if wins stage

My opinion. Don't want you to lose money based on my silly predictions.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

His view:

It probably will be a day for the break, but it would have to be a very strong breakaway, made up of climbers outside of the general classification battle. The Montee du plateau des Glieres is too far from the finish - with 30km still to go for the GC guys - to try to attack each other for time today.
Rider to watch: Warren Barguil (Fra/Arkea-Samsic)

he would be almost certainly correct if this was an early mountain stage, but this is the last chance for climbing biased GC men to move up rather than down. It will be pretty shameful if none of them force the issue.

 

[Jagartrott]

This stage has 'Marc Hirschi' written all over it, which is why Benoit Cosnefroy will win, after clearly (and cleverly) saving his legs these past days.

Actually, I hope to see Pello Bilbao in the break. He's getting better and better, and could win here. Free Bilbao!

 

[Keram]

Could be carnage but it is Tour after all so I have gut feeling that break will get huge gap and JV will softpedal most of the stage. It is last mountain stage somebody have to try something. I hope.

 

[roundabout]

I think JV will only softpedal if they get someone in the break as well, or there will be no UAEs or Astanas there

 

[Volderke]

This is a big chance for Carapaz to get the KOM jersey and the stage win from the break.

 

[roundabout]

3rd break in a row may make it difficult

 

[Breezy1985]

Could be carnage but it is Tour after all so I have gut feeling that break will get huge gap and JV will softpedal most of the stage. It is last mountain stage somebody have to try something. I hope.

Yep would be great to see a crazy long attack but its so much harder in the Tour because of the strong support riders

 

[RedheadDane]

My opinion. Don't want you to lose money based on my silly predictions.

You mean to tell us a bet based on your predictions won't be safe?

 

[luckyboy]

Nothing before Glieres, and even then Pogacar isn't as strong as Roglic anyway. Lopez can take two minutes and Roglic will still win in Paris.

Maybe Yates tries something too. The rest aren't strong enough to make any big moves or will just save their position.

 

[Amazinmets87]

If Lopez or Pogocar are willing to risk it all to attempt to win, where's the best place to go for it?

 

[roundabout]

try and explode the race on Glieres as soon as possible so that Kuss and Dumoulin would not be able to help and then hope to get a gap on Roglic and right group compositions.

 

[Red Rick]

If Lopez or Pogocar are willing to risk it all to attempt to win, where's the best place to go for it?

Not sure there's even a place to risk all against this Jumbo.

Probably Glieres and pray Roglic randomly cracks anyway.

 

[Luthor]

Glieres looks hard but that's still Roglic's territory. It doesn't have the length and altitude the Loze had which def put MAL in a better position and it's close to Puy Mary where Roglic was the best among GC. If there is no break, I can see Roglic taking the bonus. Pog lost 10 seconds to Roglic in the last metres of Loze and looked the most tired among top3. If anything MAL might try to attack him.

 

[Koronin]

Movistar sends 3 riders up the road including Soler and Verona to find out if they have the form to go stage hunting. Although unlikely to have the form for stage hunting, they likely can solidify placing 4 riders in the top 20 of GC by doing this.

 

[topcat]

I'm expecting Pog to bonk tomorrow. Roglic might lose a little time bit not enough.

 

[repre]

Pogacar can crack today, he was dead after the final ramp. Looked like Bernal few stages before he cracked...

 

[Brumdog66]

Lopez looked like the strongest climber today imo don't think the win is in reach but a big attack on Gileres could take the stage and possibly second

 

[Luthor]

Pogacar can crack today, he was dead after the final ramp. Looked like Bernal few stages before he cracked...

True, the effort seems to kick in. But he won't lose the podium anyway. Luckily for Pog this is the last mountain stage.

 

[DanielSong39]

Lopez cannot protect 3rd place, he needs to put time into Richie Porte before the time trial
Let's hope Astana can do something in the stage
I'm guessing there will be a big break early and the peloton will let it go, stage winner from the break