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Tour de France 2020 | Stage 18 (Méribel - La Roche-sur-Foron, 175 km)

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Forever The Best

Apr 15, 2016
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Tonton said:
That's not saying much :). Better than the last time when the Plateau des Glieres was used, but it still is too far from the finish. That's one climb that can derail a train, and it probably won't.

Break takes it...
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The previous climbs may see some riders from the train getting dropped with hard pace ( and there also may be a chaotic start ), and then an attack from the bottom of Glieres should derail the train and after the climb there is terrain to gain more time. Especially Col des Fleuries can extend the time gaps. I think this is a great stage.
 
Tonton

Tonton

May 17, 2013
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Forever The Best said:
The previous climbs may see some riders from the train getting dropped with hard pace ( and there also may be a chaotic start ), and then an attack from the bottom of Glieres should derail the train and after the climb there is terrain to gain more time. Especially Col des Fleuries can extend the time gaps. I think this is a great stage.
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I hope you're right! I'm just afraid that we end up with 15-20 riders in the yellow jersey group once we get to the bottom, and we see no real GC action. Which would be bad, considering that the next day won't force the issue.
 
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O

Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Tonton said:
I hope you're right! I'm just afraid that we end up with 15-20 riders in the yellow jersey group once we get to the bottom, and we see no real GC action. Which would be bad, considering that the next day won't force the issue.
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Most of you think Glieres is the place to go and I'd agree. JV should give the Saisses and Aravis climb a good pace to warm up the contenders and expose the pretenders. As I mentioned elsewhere; the descent off the Saisses has some interesting turns before you begin the Aravis that could cause chaos for anyone mid-pack.
It'll be a long way to the finish from the Gliere plateau but Alaphallippe did it. Possible for someone in the right time zone off the podium. The scenery is great, too.
 
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Amazinmets87

May 12, 2015
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Tonton said:
That's not saying much :). Better than the last time when the Plateau des Glieres was used, but it still is too far from the finish. That's one climb that can derail a train, and it probably won't.

Break takes it...
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Yup. Shorter, steeper climbs are ideal for negating the advantage of a train. Not only are heavier, more powerful train members shedded early, the steep incline and subsequent reduced speeds make drafting less effective. I hope rival teams keep that in mind when deciding whether to attack JV tomorrow...
 
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Savant12

Jul 18, 2011
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Only a Fuente Dé or Formigal style ambush will dislodge the Jumbots. Then again, most of the team would need to have a bad day; otherwise, WVA will just pull Roglic back into the race. Also, there is no Contador-level GC rider to do it.
 
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The Barb

Apr 14, 2009
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Very very interesting stage although I doubt we will see any major change in the GC.

I think Miguel Angel Lopez will ride more conservatively than most would like. I don't believe he needs to gain any more time on Porte before the TT (he actually rode his best time trial in 4 years earlier this year in Algarve). His podium position is safe. Maybe he tries to get away on the last climb and link up with a team mate from the break to work together to the finish but I think this is the best we can hope for.

I think Pogacar will ride more conservatively than most would like. He will go hard on the final climb but anything longer than that would be suicidal. Jumbo is just too strong.

If Hirschi has recovered then the stage is great for him. He will gain time on all the descents. Best case scenario would be for him to work with a guy like Kwiatkowski who also descends well and can climb at a similar level to Hirschi. If it's that kind of scenario then it's definitely a day for the break.

The KOTM is so interesting. Pogacar is very hard to catch but someone like Hirshi (35 points behind Pogacar) or Carapaz (if he's recovered from his huge exertions of the last two days) could do it.

Overall my overly specific prediction is for Kwiatkowski to win the stage from Hirschi, after reaching a deal that Hirschi takes all the mountain points to lead the KOTM in return for not contesting the stage win.
 
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Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
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I honestly think Roglic (barring huge off day) is strong enough to control this even if he had a much weaker team. He only has to focus on Pogacar and to a lesser extent Lopez, but Porte only becomes an issue when he's 4 minutes down the road and Lopez needs at least 3.

In reality, with the strength of Jumbo Visma, I feel its unlikely that will happen, and even if it does there'll be someone there to chase it down.
 
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movingtarget

Aug 5, 2009
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Escarabajo said:
Dangerous stage for the breakaway. More dangerous for the sprinters as many have said.

Maybe somebody risk it from far but there are a lot of tired legs and I don't see it. climb to Glières is already far enough and if somebody wants to try something like Lopez, Landa, Uran or Porte they better put riders up the road early.
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You are confusing them with Contador. Landa's team worked hard yesterday. Porte is happy with his position. Lopez is an enigma, hard to know what he will do. Often he looks like hitting the podium only to drop off. I think he will protect his podium position unless he sees weakness from Porte and the Slovenians. Not a great stage for Porte. Another MTF would have been better for him.
 
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JosephK

JosephK

Jul 24, 2016
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With the effort the top GC guys put in today, including Superman, anyone could possibly crack (through probably not Roglic). So many hard climbs on stage 18. Any non-Roglic rider hoping for a chance at yellow will have to invoke the Nibali maxim: not afraid to lose, and not afraid to win. Lopez has the new mojo; let's see if he can pull a Contador.
 
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movingtarget

Aug 5, 2009
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Probably too late in the race for an ambush stage as riders especially the top four will want to protect their position on GC. Landa would be the obvious one but his team worked hard yesterday and he doesn't seem to have great legs. Movistar may not be strong enough to make it work but they might try something for Mas. Lopez will be the interesting one. Will he attack Roglic and Pogacar ? This is his last chance to shake up the podium before the TT. Pogacar might be a little vulnerable, he had to fight hard yesterday and he might be paying now for being so aggressive earlier in the race. The trouble is the stage design. The last serious climb is a long way from the finish. Astana will have to get riders in the break and Jumbo may not want to give the break too much leeway or they give them so much leeway that it negates the chances of Lopez riding across. Riders will also be weary after yesterday which might also dampen the chance of attacks.
 
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Amazinmets87

May 12, 2015
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JosephK said:
With the effort the top GC guys put in today, including Superman, anyone could possibly crack (through probably not Roglic). So many hard climbs on stage 18. Any non-Roglic rider hoping for a chance at yellow will have to invoke the Nibali maxim: not afraid to lose, and not afraid to win. Lopez has the new mojo; let's see if he can pull a Contador.
Click to expand...


Let's say long-range kamikaze attacks are too much to ask for. Which team is most likely to set a hard tempo before the peloton reaches the penultimate climb? It's unlikely weak riders will be found out until it's too late to fully capitalize on it if no team takes the initiative.
 
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