Tour de France 2020 | Stage 4 (Sisteron – Orcières-Merlette, 160.5 km)

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A 10-15 rider sprint seems to be a good guess. Valverde and Alaf' would be the fastest. Some of the other riders have good sprinting abilities: Roglic is fast, so is Pinot. I hope that we get a big show and overreact like we always do :)
 
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Pogačar is hinting he might go for it, if the legs will agree. Cyclist like López are likely eager to give it a try. Hence on stage 4 it is reasonable to expect we will get to see a move, by someone. I guess now the question is what the big teams will do. After Critérium du Dauphiné it could be reasonable to expect JV making other suffer and Roglič finishing it off, BUT this is Tour and i somehow got a feeling, Roglič is confident enough, to wait a bit longer. They hence will control, but likely not attack. Ineos likely using similar tactics. But you can never know, as who really knows, what their tactics will end up being.
 
DQS will want the win and can control the break, but they don't have the team to control the climb.

Jumbo have but it depends on if Roglic wants to sprint for bonis

Ineos probably don't want it to end in a sprint.
They don't but they can't really do anything but wait for whatever the other teams are planning. Even if Bernal is the strongest climber they cannot be confident in him dropping Roglic on that climb. However if Bernal empties himself with an attack or even if Ineos just drill the climb with a really high pace, Roglic's acceleration at the finish only becomes an even more dangerous weapon.
 
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Pogačar is hinting he might go for it, if the legs will agree. Cyclist like López are likely eager to give it a try. Hence on stage 4 it is reasonable to expect we will get to see a move, by someone. I guess now the question is what the big teams will do. After Critérium du Dauphiné it could be reasonable to expect JV making other suffer and Roglič finishing it off, BUT this is Tour and i somehow got a feeling, Roglič is confident enough, to wait a bit longer. They hence will control, but likely not attack. Ineos likely using similar tactics. But you can never know, as who really knows, what their tactics will end up being.
Lopez is a good shout. He likes to give it a go on these sort of lower gradient climbs and he also isn't usually the sort of rider to wait for the third week. Maybe Astana are indeed our biggest hope for excitment tomorrow
 
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This stage would have had Dan Martin's name on it 2-3 seasons ago. So the question must be asked; did he lose 17 minutes yesterday because of his injuries, or because he wanted to save himself for this stage?
I hope that it's the latter. But it makes sense for an outsider to throw a hand grenade and hope that JV and Ineos watch each other. MAL, Landa are the kind of guys who will be tempted to give it a crack. Pogacar is another one.
 
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Because of injuries and form. Dan has always fancied himself as podium material at the tour (even though no one else has).
Yeah, he and Adam Yates were hyped, and in the end, it was Simon who delivered. Sometimes we are wrong...but Dan isn't slouch either, he has big wins, feathers on his hat. If he picked this stage, he has the talent to get it.
 
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I wonder if a break could make it ...DQS may not have the power to chase all day and others may not want to

This climb is not very steep so its about speed
People down on GC who it might suit are Dan Martin, Zakarin,Ion Izagirre , Barguil ,Groschartner , Hermans.....I wonderif any of these will be let off

Of course Adam Yates is riding for stages ..(hmm) maybe he will win it
 
I wonder if a break could make it ...DQS may not have the power to chase all day and others may not want to

This climb is not very steep so its about speed
People down on GC who it might suit are Dan Martin, Zakarin,Ion Izagirre , Barguil ,Groschartner , Hermans.....I wonderif any of these will be let off

Of course Adam Yates is riding for stages ..(hmm) maybe he will win it
Those are all very different situations. Zakarin or Barguil would have to attack early on the climb and build up a lead, while everyone in the bunch watches each other (unlikely that Ineos or J-V will let the pace drop off that much). Hermans* would have to get in the BOD and win from there. Martin would have to be in the main group, and attack with 1-2km of climbing remaining.

As other have said, Martin's form and injuries will determine how he goes/if he can even try. And if he does try, he will more than likely have the top 3 from stage 2 on his wheel.


*Edit; I forgot/didn't know that Hermans is in the same team as Martin. Hermans to be in the break, and try to survive to the final kilometers, from where he can act as a bridge to Martin? Requires a lot to go right, but it's the best avenue I can see for ISN to win a stage tomorrow.
 
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Stage 4 should i guess hint, in a rather obvious fashion, if Roglič will take the cumulative approach, or not. Looking forward to that. If not i still feel that one of the GC contenders will likely make a move. And we should get to see some action.
 
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I can see Landa trying to attack. He is not afraid to go for it even when the chances are slim and might be tempted in the case there is no one really picking it up or if JV/Ineos are not riding the train full stream. Higuita would be my shout for victory. Or Alafpolak.
 
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Well, Richie porte made sure that's never going to happen, that's for sure.
Martin was no stranger to falls before the Porte one and it continued to happen later. One of the more jinxed GC riders of late. he finished the race the year of the Porte crash. Showed a lot of guts but he always did. He looked like an old man getting on and off his bike and was in obvious pain and finished the race in sixth place ! The crash possibly cost him a podium as his form was very good that year but so was Porte's !
 

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