Tour de France 2020 | Stage 4 (Sisteron – Orcières-Merlette, 160.5 km)

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Martin was no stranger to falls before the Porte one and it continued to happen later. One of the more jinxed GC riders of late. he finished the race the year of the Porte crash. Showed a lot of guts but he always did. He looked like an old man getting on and off his bike and was in obvious pain and finished the race in sixth place ! The crash possibly cost him a podium as his form was very good that year but so was Porte's !
That LBL crash is still painful for my bank balance
 
It is hard for the breakaway as yellow jersey is within reach. QS and interested parties will motor the pace all the way.

The last climb should not be difficult enough to drop Alaphilippe. Hardly will see Ineos doing any pulling as it will only benefit Roglic getting bonus seconds. If a small bunch arrives the top, it should be the battle between Alaphilippe and Roglic (or even Schachmann).

Any suprise winner will depend on if anyone can attack the TJV train. Pogacar will be difficult to get away, but Formolo may stand a chance. Adam Yates and Lutsenko are good guesses too.
 
If the breakaway does not get leeway we could see a bunch of 20-30 contesting the finish. Obvious money would go on Alaphilippe but others in with a shout in this type of finish I’d have thought would be Yates via a short range attack (who has the incentive of the jersey if he gets bonifications) Roglic or Carapaz. On the other hand could be quite a dull stage devoid of any gc action until the flamme rouge if the breakaway is allowed to go and win the stage.
 
Hopefully Yates can show something again here as it’s likely most of the main GC guys will be happy for a group of 20 to reach the top together with no dramas. Alaphilippe will be the obvious favourite to take the win in that case.
 
Those are all very different situations. Zakarin or Barguil would have to attack early on the climb and build up a lead, while everyone in the bunch watches each other (unlikely that Ineos or J-V will let the pace drop off that much). Hermans* would have to get in the BOD and win from there. Martin would have to be in the main group, and attack with 1-2km of climbing remaining.

As other have said, Martin's form and injuries will determine how he goes/if he can even try. And if he does try, he will more than likely have the top 3 from stage 2 on his wheel.


*Edit; I forgot/didn't know that Hermans is in the same team as Martin. Hermans to be in the break, and try to survive to the final kilometers, from where he can act as a bridge to Martin? Requires a lot to go right, but it's the best avenue I can see for ISN to win a stage tomorrow.

I guessed you missed the part where i said'go in the break' .Dan Martin will be in the break if he is better ..he cannot win from the reduced peloton against Allaphillipe, Yates, or Roglic these days and neither can Zakarin, Hermans, etc.So I was talking about one scenario

As for Dan Martin podiuming aTour ? Like Bardet it was never going to happen with such a crap TT .Dan Martin won stage races with no TTs or one day races
Harder these days though with the superb younger competition and Fuglsang with his pasta eating habits
 
Let's just get some race action, pretty please. With the strong teams sending a contender up the road. Carapaz, George Bennett (if he wasn't hurt).. Martin and Yates can join them. Also Molard, Herrada, Izaguirre (either of them). Easier said than done, I know. But I'm getting tired of the train going up fast and riders being shelled out the back.
 
I can imagine this going to the stage hunters.
GC sizing up will anyway happen, but rather without worrying about the jersey obligations.

And there's Julian Alaphilippe to remake all the plots.
If someone like Dan.M who has lost time or if Bala was given rope were fit this would be perfect for them but far more likely Yates tries to jump Ala and the GC group follow in together
 
Yeah, he and Adam Yates were hyped, and in the end, it was Simon who delivered. Sometimes we are wrong...but Dan isn't slouch either, he has big wins, feathers on his hat. If he picked this stage, he has the talent to get it.
I always felt Dan wanted the podium because he is Irish/English and monuments mean absolutely 0 to anyone outside a cycling fanatic in those countries where as a sniff of yellow and your in all the papers. Sam Bennetts chances in stage 1 was the first time in ages anyone in Ireland asked me about a cycling result
 
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Hirschi will get his win today.
GC favourites to try some half-hearted attacks, but too many still think they can win the Tour, so they'll all neutralize each other (and no-one will really go 100% for fear of counter-attacks). Sprint from a sizeable group.
 
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I always felt Dan wanted the podium because he is Irish/English and monuments mean absolutely 0 to anyone outside a cycling fanatic in those countries where as a sniff of yellow and your in all the papers. Sam Bennetts chances in stage 1 was the first time in ages anyone in Ireland asked me about a cycling result
My great uncle, straight outta Mayo, came round when I was watching the tour a few years ago.

"Is this the milk race, who's winnin'?"
 
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Hirschi will get his win today.
GC favourites to try some half-hearted attacks, but too many still think they can win the Tour, so they'll all neutralize each other (and no-one will really go 100% for fear of counter-attacks). Sprint from a sizeable group.
Yes, interesting to see Hirschi. The flat finish could be his advantage. But then I'm not sure. On stage 2 he didn't really work in the group and saved energy. He's definitely a tactically very astute rider, but I don't know exactly about his pure strength at this moment. But he's going to be motivated for sure.
 
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I really don't think Ineos see him as a card. This Tour is Bernals or no one's for them.

And I don't see Carapaz coming near a podium the was previous Ineos super doms have
I don't really see it that way, or also what one thing has to do with the other. Carapaz has the perfect sense to anticipate the right time to attack on a climb like this, and that someone steals bonus seconds from the competitors, is the best thing Bernal can hope for today.
 
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