Tour de France 2020 | Stage 8 (Gazeres-sur-Geronne - Loudenvielle

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Pogacar might attack. He is in good shape and got unlucky today. I have a feeling it might be like Machucos in Vuelta where Pogacar/Roglic wreaked havoc. I can see UAE working hard but when Pog attacks only Roglic would be able to follow and the duo does it again. Roglic in yellow and Pogacar winning.
 
I like Martinez to win this stage, on paper he is sthe strongest climber the peloton will allow to get in the breakaway. Other excellent climbers are just too close to the yellow jersey to be allowed to be in a breakaway. I put $50 on Martinez x 17. I suggest you do the same.
 
I think this will be the first mountain stage that they actually treat like a mountain stage. Jumbo have to go hard and expose their rivals, this is the hardest day left before the rest day. Jumbo can't wait around forever and they have to start eliminating people before it's too late.
As much as I hated him I gotta respect Froome cause on a day like this he would take charge of the race and I really hope someone does tomorrow
 
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Tomorrow it can be a really good stage.
My thoughts:
  • Jumbo and in minor terms Ineos can pace hard in both last mountains and create havoc but most of GC contenders will resist;
  • Astana: they should send 2-3 guys in break and MAL should atack in Bales;
  • Bardet could atack in last mountain and try to win seconds on de descent;
  • Arkea dont have the depth on the team, they should send 2 mountain domestiques in the breakway and Nairo should atack in Bales. Other option is like they cant do nothing against the TJV and Ineos trains in the last mountains, try to create havoc in the first one;
  • Pogacar will try something, today it was not fatigue, just misplace and unluck. The one who wants to win, stage or GC, must go with him.
Im afraid that all the GC guys that today didnt loose time, dont atack tomorrow because they "are tired from yesterday" and this would be a pitty. Someone already said this.
 
Pogacar might attack. He is in good shape and got unlucky today. I have a feeling it might be like Machucos in Vuelta where Pogacar/Roglic wreaked havoc. I can see UAE working hard but when Pog attacks only Roglic would be able to follow and the duo does it again. Roglic in yellow and Pogacar winning.
I don’t see that either of them is above the level of several of the other top climbers (Yates, Nairo, Martin, and perhaps others) that they could just easily drop them. And all the other potential contenders have their eagle eyes on Roglic, so it’s not like he could sneak away. Some of the other leaders might let Dumoulin go up the read, or hesitate long enough for him to get a gap, but I don’t know how he’s feeling.
Roglic could gain time, but it would be because Jumbo crushes all life out of the peloton on the final climbs until he jump clear over the top.
 
i seriously doubt any of the riders all within 13 seconds will attack on Bales when there will likely be at least 4 JumboBeeBots still around. that is the problem with keeping so many so close in time. no one is going to risk losing all hope of being in the top ten for that.

Now, pog and landa maybe...

i hope i am wrong.

more likely is that jumbo/ineos whittle it down near the top of Peyresourde and someone attacks in last KM to take the bonus at the top and then continue on down. ala or rog seem perfect for that. question is whether ala is back in last year's shape and is able to follow the climbers until then.

my two cents.
 
i seriously doubt any of the riders all within 13 seconds will attack on Bales when there will likely be at least 4 JumboBeeBots still around. that is the problem with keeping so many so close in time. no one is going to risk losing all hope of being in the top ten for that.

Now, pog and landa maybe...

i hope i am wrong.

more likely is that jumbo/ineos whittle it down near the top of Peyresourde and someone attacks in last KM to take the bonus at the top and then continue on down. ala or rog seem perfect for that. question is whether ala is back in last year's shape and is able to follow the climbers until then.

my two cents.
Nobody will be able to make an attack like that stick without putting someone up the road. The makeup of the Break will tell a lot about who is going to try and attack and bridge.

I can't see JV not drilling it on the mountains, probably on the Bales at least. Of the 13 riders within 22s of yellow, at least 4 or 5 or more are just surviving. They have to start thinning the herd soon.
 
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I don’t see that either of them is above the level of several of the other top climbers (Yates, Nairo, Martin, and perhaps others) that they could just easily drop them. And all the other potential contenders have their eagle eyes on Roglic, so it’s not like he could sneak away. Some of the other leaders might let Dumoulin go up the read, or hesitate long enough for him to get a gap, but I don’t know how he’s feeling.
Roglic could gain time, but it would be because Jumbo crushes all life out of the peloton on the final climbs until he jump clear over the top.
Yet nobody was good enough to follow Roglic four days ago and guess who was second. Yep, Pogacar. He sneaked away easily and he can do it again but in this case it would be following Pog's attack.
Nobody is gonna let Dumoulin go given how well suited is the final TT for him.
Unless Dumo is in a great day I don't see Jumbo crushing anything.
 
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It i guess depends, on how much JV really desires maillot jaune at this point. It's still a bit early, but if they want to have it in week 1, then stage 8 might end up being that place. If they don't want it, then they could let somebody like Pogačar, to attack, and let Ineos do the work, chasing. Or to join forces with Pogačar, by including his (potential) attack in their stage 8 initial plan.

We'll see.
 
Yet nobody was good enough to follow Roglic four days ago and guess who was second. Yep, Pogacar. He sneaked away easily and he can do it again but in this case it would be following Pog's attack.
Nobody is gonna let Dumoulin go given how well suited is the final TT for him.
Unless Dumo is in a great day I don't see Jumbo crushing anything.
It doesn’t need Dumoulin to be in great form. If Martin drives the pace on the Monte, then Gesink and Bennett drive it on the Bales, and then Kuss on the Peyresourde, then the lead group will be reduced to <10 before the final summit, without Dumoulin sticking his nose in the wind. The question is who will be in those last 7 or 8, and will they be willing/able to attack JV themselves.
 
Yet nobody was good enough to follow Roglic four days ago and guess who was second. Yep, Pogacar. He sneaked away easily and he can do it again but in this case it would be following Pog's attack.
Nobody is gonna let Dumoulin go given how well suited is the final TT for him.
Unless Dumo is in a great day I don't see Jumbo crushing anything.
That was a summit sprint finish—if that’s what you’re talking about those two are great candidates. But that’s not tomorrow, unless you mean those two will outspribt others in a small group of climbers finishing together after the Peyresourde descent. That would not be a surprise to anybody here, I don’t think. But your reference seemed to be about an attack during the stage tomorrow, which would be very exciting, but it’s unrelated to what was displayed in Stage 2.
 
It doesn’t need Dumoulin to be in great form. If Martin drives the pace on the Monte, then Gesink and Bennett drive it on the Bales, and then Kuss on the Peyresourde, then the lead group will be reduced to <10 before the final summit, without Dumoulin sticking his nose in the wind. The question is who will be in those last 7 or 8, and will they be willing/able to attack JV themselves.
i just don't think there is any reason at all for dumoulin to attack. none. zero.

they would be risking their insurance.

he likely stays in contention longer if he can simply pace up mountains on his power.

Jumbo have the two best TTers. It is for others to attack and gain time. and how are they going to do that if Kuss can still easily pull back bernal (as he did at the dauphine)?
 
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i just don't think there is any reason at all for dumoulin to attack. none. zero.

they would be risking their insurance.

he likely stays in contention longer if he can simply pace up mountains on his power.

Jumbo have the two best TTers. It is for others to attack and gain time. and how are they going to do that if Kuss can still easily pull back bernal (as he did at the dauphine)?
Oh, I completely agree with you. I don’t envisage Dumoulin attacking at all. I just think JV need to be setting a hard tempo up these climbs, to burn off any weak contenders in the top 10. I just think they can do plenty of that without needing Tom to do anything.
 
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