Tour de France 2021 route rumors

[Netserk]

It's a clear pattern. After 2015 they will never again have a potentially decisive MTF early. La Rosière is the closest.

An open GC is alpha and omega for ASO.

 

[Jan the Man]

Important to see the Giro route, conceivably they could line up something like this-

Tour - Bernal, Thomas, Porte, Kwiatowski, Sivakov, Castravejo, Dennis, Rowe
Giro - Carapaz, TGH, Sosa, Yates, Amador, Van Baarle, Ganna, Puccio,

 

[Bolder]

I think Dumoulin should go for this Tour.

If Dumoulin is good enough to win Olympic ITT gold on this parcours, he should be good enough to compete for the Tour win anyway.

Absolutely.

Since we are just a few days off from a long, grim offseason, never too early to speculate who will win the 2021 TdF, riiiiight?

If -- if -- every top GC rider was in their most recent, best form...I'd pick Dumoulin or Pogacar as 5-stars, with Roglic, Bernal/Carapaz, Mas and Evenepoel as 4-star. Given Evenepoel's skill set and likely domestiques + Alaf (if Remco does the Tour, which he should), it's not a stretch to say he's a podium contender on this course.

Those picks are hardly a stretch, I know. I'm a huge fan of the Dumoulin we saw in 2016-18 and hope he can get back to that level.

After that it's a mixture of this year's heros like Hart/Hindley/Carthy and veteran top 5 guys like Nibali, Froome, Quintana etc.

I don't think Alaphilippe will be able to pull off any more GC surprises but if he's on the same team as Remco it could really shake things up. He'd be in every mountain break.

 

[Bolder]

Important to see the Giro route, conceivably they could line up something like this-

Tour - Bernal, Thomas, Porte, Kwiatowski, Sivakov, Castravejo, Dennis, Rowe
Giro - Carapaz, TGH, Sosa, Yates, Amador, Van Baarle, Ganna, Puccio,

I wonder if Carapaz doesn't rate more highly than Bernal at this point. It's not inconceivable that it's Carapaz/Thomas for the Tour, Yates/Hart for Giro and Bernal for the Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

I wonder if Carapaz doesn't rate more highly than Bernal at this point. It's not inconceivable that it's Carapaz/Thomas for the Tour, Yates/Hart for Giro and Bernal for the Vuelta.

0 chance in hell Carapaz is rated higher than Bernal right now.

 

[Breh]

They're never ever going to make Yates the main leader in a GT. Atleast not if Bernal, Carapaz, Hart, Sivakov and Thomas are fit and don't forget they also have riders like De Plus and Martinez to toy around with.

 

[Lui98]

Absolutely.

Since we are just a few days off from a long, grim offseason, never too early to speculate who will win the 2021 TdF, riiiiight?

If -- if -- every top GC rider was in their most recent, best form...I'd pick Dumoulin or Pogacar as 5-stars, with Roglic, Bernal/Carapaz, Mas and Evenepoel as 4-star. Given Evenepoel's skill set and likely domestiques + Alaf (if Remco does the Tour, which he should), it's not a stretch to say he's a podium contender on this course.

Those picks are hardly a stretch, I know. I'm a huge fan of the Dumoulin we saw in 2016-18 and hope he can get back to that level.

After that it's a mixture of this year's heros like Hart/Hindley/Carthy and veteran top 5 guys like Nibali, Froome, Quintana etc.

I don't think Alaphilippe will be able to pull off any more GC surprises but if he's on the same team as Remco it could really shake things up. He'd be in every mountain break.

It would be very interesting to see Dumoulin being back to his 2017-2018 levels, but the problem at the moment is that he chose to go to JBV, and his first rival is Roglic, he has to be on top form to beat him and to obtain the leadership of the team. This season he never fully achieved the fitness peak to begin with, or at least it didn' t appear like it did, so it will be a big question mark.
I agree with the fact that Pogačar will be the main favorite, specifically because in this Tour he did an amazing job even without having a great team. Speaking about Ineos I think that their best bet could be Thomas, with two TTs (even if 58 km) , three mountain finishes (with Tignes which is easy, Luz Ardiden with only two climbs preceded by 70 km of flat and a full stage lenght which is u23 style, and only the Col du Portet stage which appears demanding), on the other hand Bernal isn't perfect for this kind of route. Mas is a top 5 contender for sure, while Evenepoel (if he participates) in my opinion could be the wild card, and also a contender for top 5. About Hart, Hindley and Carthy at the moment I reserve my judgment, because even if I rate them as Top 10 material they all have some flaws, especially Hindley (because of the ITT).

 

[Red Rick]

It would be very interesting to see Dumoulin being back to his 2017-2018 levels, but the problem at the moment is that he chose to go to JBV, and his first rival is Roglic, he has to be on top form to beat him and to obtain the leadership of the team. This season he never fully achieved the fitness peak to begin with, or at least it didn' t appear like it did, so it will be a big question mark.
I agree with the fact that Pogačar will be the main favorite, specifically because in this Tour he did an amazing job even without having a great team. Speaking about Ineos I think that their best bet could be Thomas, with two TTs (even if 58 km) , three mountain finishes (with Tignes which is easy, Luz Ardiden with only two climbs preceded by 70 km of flat and a full stage lenght which is u23 style, and only the Col du Portet stage which appears demanding), on the other hand Bernal isn't perfect for this kind of route. Mas is a top 5 contender for sure, while Evenepoel (if he participates) in my opinion could be the wild card, and also a contender for top 5. About Hart, Hindley and Carthy at the moment I reserve my judgment, because even if I rate them as Top 10 material they all have some flaws, especially Hindley (because of the ITT).

First ITT is before they hit any mountain. He gets a shot to show himself before he has to do work for Roglic normally.

 

[johnymax]

Important to see the Giro route, conceivably they could line up something like this-

Tour - Bernal, Thomas, Porte, Kwiatowski, Sivakov, Castravejo, Dennis, Rowe
Giro - Carapaz, TGH, Sosa, Yates, Amador, Van Baarle, Ganna, Puccio,

This is crazy. Ineos can put 2 GT teams together and both could be considered on par with or close to the best Jumbo Visma squad.

Roglič, Dumoulin, Kuss, Kruijswijk, Bennett/Oomen, Van Aert, Martin/Teunissen/Gesink

I don't even know what would be the strongest 7 riders for INEOS. Is there even room for the freshest Giro winner? Or Carapaz? Yates? Kwiatkowski? Crazy.

 

[Red Rick]

This is crazy. Ineos can put 2 GT teams together and both could be considered on par with or close to the best Jumbo Visma squad.

Roglič, Dumoulin, Kuss, Kruijswijk, Bennett/Oomen, Van Aert, Martin/Teunissen/Gesink

I don't even know what would be the strongest 7 riders for INEOS. Is there even room for the freshest Giro winner? Or Carapaz? Yates? Kwiatkowski? Crazy.

The strongest Ineos squad is the one with Rohan Dennis in it

 

[Lui98]

First ITT is before they hit any mountain. He gets a shot to show himself before he has to do work for Roglic normally.

That' s also true, but it won' t be easy to beat Rogla in an ITT so early in a GT

 

[Red Rick]

That' s also true, but it won' t be easy to beat Rogla in an ITT so early in a GT

Well he simply should.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Important to see the Giro route, conceivably they could line up something like this-

Tour - Bernal, Thomas, Porte, Kwiatowski, Sivakov, Castravejo, Dennis, Rowe
Giro - Carapaz, TGH, Sosa, Yates, Amador, Van Baarle, Ganna, Puccio,

You mean to say that De Plus and Martinez can share Vuelta leadership?

That' s also true, but it won' t be easy to beat Rogla in an ITT so early in a GT

Roglic isn't the ITT wonder many people think he is.

 

[Tucs2]

Excellent route to put your sleep in order.

 

[Brumdog66]

It's a clear pattern. After 2015 they will never again have a potentially decisive MTF early. La Rosière is the closest.

An open GC is alpha and omega for ASO.

That was the best Froome era tour as well ffs

 

[johnymax]

Roglic isn't the ITT wonder many people think he is.

He is not. But he's still one of the best TT riders in the peloton and has been so consistently since 2016. Every now and then he puts up some amazing ITT performances. In the recent past for example last year in the Giro stage 1 up the San Luca or one week earlier in the Romandie ITT.

It's also true that I'd find in a heartbeat at least 5 guys who are rated higher right now as TT riders. Ganna, Dennis, Remco, Van Aert, Dumoulin. There are others who you might consider but in terms of strength, consistency and versatility he is somewhere in the 6-10 range, I think.

 

[Lui98]

He is not. But he's still one of the best TT riders in the peloton and has been so consistently since 2016. Every now and then he puts up some amazing ITT performances. In the recent past for example last year in the Giro stage 1 up the San Luca or one week earlier in the Romandie ITT.

It's also true that I'd find in a heartbeat at least 5 guys who are rated higher right now as TT riders. Ganna, Dennis, Remco, Van Aert, Dumoulin. There are others who you might consider but in terms of strength, consistency and versatility he is somewhere in the 6-10 range, I think.

I agree, and I want to add that Roglic best performances in time trials in a GT almost always come from the first two weeks

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He is not. But he's still one of the best TT riders in the peloton and has been so consistently since 2016. Every now and then he puts up some amazing ITT performances. In the recent past for example last year in the Giro stage 1 up the San Luca or one week earlier in the Romandie ITT.

It's also true that I'd find in a heartbeat at least 5 guys who are rated higher right now as TT riders. Ganna, Dennis, Remco, Van Aert, Dumoulin. There are others who you might consider but in terms of strength, consistency and versatility he is somewhere in the 6-10 range, I think.

Yep, of the GC guys he is one of the best ITT'ers and he should not lose too much time in an ITT compared to other top GC riders (alien efforts notwithstanding) and it will often be a weapon for him compared to many. But when compared to Dumoulin (which was the point of the other poster) there is no reason to assume Roglic would beat him by a considerable margin even if it is an ITT in the 1st week. Both at their best, i would still pick Dumoulin. Roglic also tends to be more impressive at shorter ITT's imho. In last year's Giro and Vuelta, there were no other GC ITT'ers, no Dumoulin, Thomas, Froome (back then), who all beat him in 2018's TDF ITT for instance.

 

[sir fly]

First ITT is before they hit any mountain. He gets a shot to show himself before he has to do work for Roglic normally.

That's a nice subplot, even though they'll stick to the "road will decide" mantra.
On the other hand, if played correctly, could make them plenty of maneuvering space.

 

[Bolder]

They're never ever going to make Yates the main leader in a GT. Atleast not if Bernal, Carapaz, Hart, Sivakov and Thomas are fit and don't forget they also have riders like De Plus and Martinez to toy around with.

I completely forgot about those 2. Ineos is so stacked that I can barely keep track of who they poached.

 

[Red Rick]

Yep, of the GC guys he is one of the best ITT'ers and he should not lose too much time in an ITT compared to other top GC riders (alien efforts notwithstanding) and it will often be a weapon for him compared to many. But when compared to Dumoulin (which was the point of the other poster) there is no reason to assume Roglic would beat him by a considerable margin even if it is an ITT in the 1st week. Both at their best, i would still pick Dumoulin. Roglic also tends to be more impressive at shorter ITT's imho. In last year's Giro and Vuelta, there were no other GC ITT'ers, no Dumoulin, Thomas, Froome (back then), who all beat him in 2018's TDF ITT for instance.

Roglic rode that 2018 Tour ITT with a rock in is arm. I honestly rate his ITT slightly higher on average than Froomes. Froome hasn't won that many of them, and he's cranked out his own share of average ones.

 

[Luthor]

How much ITT we are supposed to get in Giro?
I rank Dumo as the best ITT rn among the GC with Pog coming next. Rog is good in early TTs but he doesn't go great in the late ones.

 

[lenric]

Boring route. Or, in other words, a normal Tour route.

 

[gregrowlerson]

It's a clear pattern. After 2015 they will never again have a potentially decisive MTF early. La Rosière is the closest.

An open GC is alpha and omega for ASO.

"All Froome's fault."

 

[hayneplane]

True, I don't know how you manage to do track and road along anyway.

Didn’t Thomas do the Giro in 2012 before winning Team Pursuit Gold on the track in the London Olympics?