Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 17: Muret – Saint-Lary-Soulan Col du Portet, 178.4 km

[Skalman]

Pogacar will like to win this one so he just not get home with TT wins from this Tdf

 

[glassmoon]

I hope something will finally happen... anything really at this point will suffice :/

 

[houtdffan]

Stage could have been a classic had Bales been included

Or do the traditional 6 climbs of Portet D'Aspet, Mente, Portillion, Persyourde, Val Louron-Azet before the Portet. Similar to the 2001 and 2005 stages, just finishing the final climb instead of stopping 60% of the way up

 

[Monte Serra]

The last 65 kilometer is identical to Stage 17 from 2018, the one with the ridiculous startgrid. Quintana won that time. So I hope Nairoman can roll back the years and secure the polkadot jersey as well!

 

[JosefK]

I hope something will finally happen... anything really at this point will suffice :/

If nothing happens on this stage, it's hard to imagine a bigger letdown. Hoping for something!

 

[dercuforever]

I hope Pog goes thermonuclear from the bottom of Porter. Also for the 2nd place fight to start from Val Louron, with monstrous ineos tempo on Peyresourde.

 

[red_flanders]

I want to see WVA win this.

 

[Tank Engine]

The GC situation and the last two mountain stages are very similar to those in 2014. Nibali was dominant (but not his team).

In 2014, the first stage was basically a battle for the mountain jersey between Majka and Rodriguez, with Majka winning the stage after Purito first attacked and then faded. Nibali gained time on his rivals. Tomorrow, it will be harder for the yellow jersey to win, since

i) it's Bastille day (so 37 French guys will want to be at the front).
ii) the initial flat section is longer.

The final mountain stage in 2014 also went over the Tourmalet (to Hautacam). Nibali won by a minute.

My predictions - Wednesday: a "random" Colombian from the break.
Thursday: a non-random Slovenian from the peloton

 

[Leinster]

The GC situation and the last two mountain stages are very similar to those in 2014. Nibali was dominant (but not his team).

In 2014, the first stage was basically a battle for the mountain jersey between Majka and Rodriguez, with Majka winning the stage after Purito first attacked and then faded. Nibali gained time on his rivals. Tomorrow, it will be harder for the yellow jersey to win, since

i) it's Bastille day (so 37 French guys will want to be at the front).
ii) the initial flat section is longer.

The final mountain stage in 2014 also went over the Tourmalet (to Hautacam). Nibali won by a minute.

My predictions - Wednesday: a "random" Columbian from the break
Thursday: a non-random Slovenian from the peloton

By that analogy, J-V this year are Tinkov in 2014, Wout is Majka, and Kuss is Mick Rogers. So we can expect vanAert to win tomorrow, and then finish Luz Ardiden just close enough behind Pogacar to hold onto the polka dots. And Sepp has to win a Worlds ITT at some stage in his career.

 

[BlueRoads]

By that analogy, J-V this year are Tinkov in 2014, Wout is Majka, and Kuss is Mick Rogers. So we can expect vanAert to win tomorrow, and then finish Luz Ardiden just close enough behind Pogacar to hold onto the polka dots. And Sepp has to win a Worlds ITT at some stage in his career.

There seems to be a small... bug... in your paragraph, but I can't really put my finger on it.

 

[Red Rick]

The last 65 kilometer is identical to Stage 17 from 2018, the one with the ridiculous startgrid. Quintana won that time. So I hope Nairoman can roll back the years and secure the polkadot jersey as well!

Not only can we break climbing records, we can get entirely faster stage records thanks to Tour de France route design.

 

[Tank Engine]

By that analogy, J-V this year are Tinkov in 2014, Wout is Majka, and Kuss is Mick Rogers. So we can expect vanAert to win tomorrow, and then finish Luz Ardiden just close enough behind Pogacar to hold onto the polka dots. And Sepp has to win a Worlds ITT at some stage in his career.

And that is why I had to break the analogy by picking a Colombian (I'll go for Lopez), in order to avoid a contradiction and the universe disappearing in a puff of logic.

If Wout wins, it will be Poels. He might have one bad day, but he has a history of big days in the last week. I think that will be enough to win the polka dots.

 

[saganftw]

i think ineos will go all out on this, they have really nothing else left...if not shame on them

 

[Tank Engine]

There seems to be a small... bug... in your paragraph, but I can't really put my finger on it.

The bug is that Rogers won all his world TT titles before 2014, so the analogy proves that Kuss will not win a world TT in the future.

 

[Leinster]

The bug is that Rogers won all his world TT titles before 2014, so the analogy proves that Kuss will not win a world TT in the future.

I completely forgot that Tony Martin was in the J-V team. The analogy wobbles, but lives. Sepp may be the one to take the Luz stage, or possibly even Vingo.


Basically, "Our leader crashed out. 3 stages and a jersey!"

 

[topcat]

Great profile as usual from Devil's Elbow. This stage is so big it almost deserves a second thread.
Big break to form: Quintana, Wout, Sonny, Cav, anybody interesting who's not in the gc race to the sun.
Mr V to be v strong. Wout to not wait. Mr V to bridge to the break, attack Wout and win.

 

[BlueRoads]

It's probably because Take That was a thing when I was very young, but I can't get "Wout won't wait, Wout won't wait" out of my head...

Okay. Wout will probably take care of Vingo.

Honestly, none of the guys who can go into a break is strong enough to win this. Pogacar will catch them all. He may not want to, but it will just happen.

Lutsenko will drop minutes.
Uran to cement his second place.
O'Connor and also Carapaz, unfortunately, will lose time.

This is such a tough stage, Pogacar in a league of his own can't be avoided. But Vingo will hold his own.

 

[saunaking]

It will just be attrition in the final climb of all the guys bunched together 2nd thru 9th while Pog rides away from all of them. Hopefully with the break already caught

 

[Rollthedice]

The GC situation and the last two mountain stages are very similar to those in 2014. Nibali was dominant (but not his team).

In 2014, the first stage was basically a battle for the mountain jersey between Majka and Rodriguez, with Majka winning the stage after Purito first attacked and then faded. Nibali gained time on his rivals. Tomorrow, it will be harder for the yellow jersey to win, since

i) it's Bastille day (so 37 French guys will want to be at the front).
ii) the initial flat section is longer.

The final mountain stage in 2014 also went over the Tourmalet (to Hautacam). Nibali won by a minute.

My predictions - Wednesday: a "random" Colombian from the break.
Thursday: a non-random Slovenian from the peloton

Still, Pog will win the Tour with more than 7'37" to second place.

 

[Warhawk]

Mark me down for Vingegaard with Pog second at... hmm... let's say 23 seconds.

 

[dgodave]

Hoping for some nice hill towns and chapels.

 

[hfer07]

Pogacar should win it in a powerful ruthless way to end this Tour GC once for all, so the next stages can be fought by breakaway heroes

 

[movingtarget]

i think ineos will go all out on this, they have really nothing else left...if not shame on them

Now or never for Carapaz otherwise the podium looks unlikely with better TT riders in front of him. Even if he does get a few seconds it probably won't be enough re the TT. If O'Connor has the legs he should try something as well but it seems at the moment from 2nd place to about 8th place the climbing level is very similar. Not sure Carapaz can make the gap he needs even if Ineos thin out the front group on the final climb. Apart from Pogacar the only one I think that could make an attack stick on the final climb is Vingegaard. Top 10 should fight out the finish, don't see the break surviving.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's Kettorze Zhwiyè, but a French victory is unlikely. Gaudu won't be recovered from yesterday, G. Martin won't get the leeway and Barguil has crashed out.

So if the winner comes from the break it should be someone from outside the top 10 with decent climbing legs. A Colombian stage win would be nice. Esteban Chaves is the most likely to make that happen.

 

[Oliver]

I hope the GC guys will take the victory today. Pogacar or Vingegaard for the win.