Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 20: Libourne – Saint-Émilion, 30.8 km (ITT)

[KZD]

A bit flatter than the first time trial. It should be between Küng, Pogačar and WVA. The swiss is my bet as he has been quiet in the last few days so ghe should be fresher.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm expecting Kelderman to do quite a bit better than last time. As BlueRoads said above Kelderman was hindered by a crash prior to the first TT. It's hard to imagine him finishing in the same time as Mas again.

Kelderman has crashed twice in the last two days, though.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think Pog will ride a bit conservatively on turns (no sense risking a crash), which will cost him some time. IMO there isn't one big favourite for tomorrow: it could be Pogacar, Kung, Van Aert, even Vingegaard has a shot. I have a feeling that it will be the Belgian.

 

[Finn84]

Of the last ten penultimate day TTs, six have been won by time trial specialists and four by GC men.

2006 Honchar - TT
2007 Leipheimer - GC (later removed)
2008 Cancellara - TT (originally won by Schumacher who was also TT specialist)
2010 Cancellara - TT
2011 Martin - TT
2012 Wiggins - GC
2014 Martin - TT
2017 Bodnar - TT
2018 Dumoulin - GC
2020 Pogacar - GC

 

[ice&fire]

Of the last ten penultimate day TTs, six have been won by time trial specialists and four by GC men.

2006 Honchar - TT
2007 Leipheimer - GC (later removed)
2008 Cancellara - TT (originally won by Schumacher who was also TT specialist)
2010 Cancellara - TT
2011 Martin - TT
2012 Wiggins - GC
2014 Martin - TT
2017 Bodnar - TT
2018 Dumoulin - GC
2020 Pogacar - GC

The list of non-specialists includes a couple of world champions of the speciality. Very interesting.

 

[gregrowlerson]

This time trial appears more predictable in its outcomes than the first one, and the 4 or 5 favourites seem likely to clog up the top placings. Though I don't think Pogacar will win the stage (not quite enough incentive, plus I don't see him as having Armstrong level time trial dominance, at least not yet).

If an outsider was to pull a surprise, I'd guess Kwiatkowski. I would like to also say Uran, but his form doesn't appear strong in this third week.

 

[Rollthedice]

The list of non-specialists includes a couple of world champions of the speciality. Very interesting.

Leipheimer "removed" which leaves only one non specialist, Pog.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Leipheimer "removed" which leaves only one non specialist, Pog.

Contador won in 2009 too (I know it wasn't penultimate, but close enough to it).

 

[Leinster]

Contador won in 2009 too (I know it wasn't penultimate, but close enough to it).

That one should definitely count; he did beat a specialist into 2nd place.

Froome won a stage 18 TT in 2016. There were 2 big mountain stages straight after, but it pretty much sealed the w.

 

[bob.a.feet]

That one should definitely count; he did beat a specialist into 2nd place.

Froome won a stage 18 TT in 2016. There were 2 big mountain stages straight after, but it pretty much sealed the w.

Wasn't that the Megeve MTT? If so, it was a given that a GC rider would beat the specialists.

 

[Leinster]

Wasn't that the Megeve MTT? If so, it was a given that a GC rider would beat the specialists.

Just because it had some hilly bits? Dumoulin was a TT specialist at the time and pushed him close.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Froome or Pogacar, who gets the sub 30’ time?

 

[movingtarget]

Like to see Kung win it but Pogacar will probably take it .Kelderman and O'Connor battle might go close.

 

[sir fly]

Froome or Pogacar, who gets the sub 30’ time?

Sub 35' realistically.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Froome or Pogacar, who gets the sub 30’ time?

Froomey easily, he was saving himself for the whole race to test his form on this stage.
Pogi is weak and tired: he couldn't even drop his opposition in the Pyrenees.

 

[Oliver]

Come on Woutje!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

In terms of GC podium I don't think a 60k length would have changed much. Pogacar vs. Vingegaard is not exactly climber vs. time trialer.

I agree. Carapaz could have been solidly in second place, though, if he had raced smarter in week 1, when Vingegaard wasn't as strong in the mountains (and had already lost time because he wasn't a protected rider at that point and had to wait for Roglic, while Van Aert did not).

Well, maybe Kelderman would have caught Carapaz. Thank god it's not 60k.

Kelderman crashed at least 2 times in the past 3(?) days. If he stays in 5th place that would be a great result for him. His first TT was only decent (only marginally better than O'Connor) He hadn't crashed yet IIRC.

first TT

Lutsenko
(Carapaz 0:44)
Mas 0:49
Kelderman s.t.
O'Connor 0:56

current GC

O'Connor
Kelderman 0:32
Mas 1:53
Lutsenko 3:04

don't really care about places 6-10, but the fight for the top 5 could be interesting (depending on the severity of Kelderman's injuries) ...or more likely could have been if the TT had been longer.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Cav to take the record.

 

[RedheadDane]

Cav to take the record.

That would be... unexpected.

 

[Kangaridoo]

That would be... unexpected.

Yes, but don't let this distract you from the fact that Nicola Boem came 5th in the Giro 2015 Points Classification finishing inside the top 100 only once.

 

[staubsauger]

Yes, but don't let this distract you from the fact that Nicola Boem came 5th in the Giro 2015 Points Classification finishing inside the top 100 only once.

That was a cool stage though. Simply because it was meant to be a boring flat stage with a meaningless break. Suddenly one kinda awaked out of sleep once it became clear they've got a chance to make it to the finish line and eventually Boem succeeded! Memorable finish.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Cav to take the record.

That would shut Eddy up for sure, getting a TT. But I worry his mechanics will mess up again.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Cav to take the record.

Pog to do the WVA and Dumo face as he crosses the line.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Sub 35' realistically.

If Pogacar can do a 32’01” in the video game than he can do sub 30 in real life!

 

[BlueRoads]

Funny that the most exciting aspect about today is who is going to be fourth.
Still, somehow I'm a bit excited, because there could be some interesting results I can't predict.