Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 5: Changé – Laval Espace Mayenne, 27.2 km (ITT)

[Jungle Cycle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410052664067444741

View: https://twitter.com/TheRaceRadio/status/1410052664067444741

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If Van Aert has recovered from his injury and he's on form, he should comfortably take this. But looking at his first days, he's not entirely there yet. I thinks his rivals will be Küng, Bissegger and Asgreen. Can't really see anybody else than those 4 taking the win, unless i'm forgetting someone.

SKA, McNulty, Thomas, Pogacar, Kelderman, Porte, Campenaerts, Roglic (?), Alaphilippe, Van der Poel, Uran, Cattaneo... to keep it interesting.

 

[mangart]

I can see Wout will take this . Not quite easy, but still ..
About Roglič ... hope for some miracle(s) . Tour will not be the same without him ( or with him but not being at 100 %).
Alla and MVDP ... they will both give everything for yellow.
Pogačar will be just fine. He can wait mountains , third week.
Thomas and Carapaz will fight for Ineos leadership .

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Very very unpredictible TT.

 

[movingtarget]

Considering that the TT is all about power and position and finding a rhythm, I don't know how Roglic can be anywhere near his best. Add that to the time lost already and the overall chances have already taken a considerable hit. Ala and Porte would probably prefer a few more hills but should still do well. Expect WVA, Pogacar, Kelderman and Kung to do well on this course. Be interesting to see how Thomas and Carapaz go. Uran should do well and Quintana as usual can't afford to lose too much time.

 

[Rackham]

i expect pog and ala to exceed people's expectations.

Especially Alaphilippe. He'll be closer to getting yellow today than van Aert IMO. Just a hunch.

 

[Unchained]

So I saw Cav bawling after the win..not sure anybody could have kept it together considering..but seeing that lil' pipsqueek in the green jersey leading him out..what a team..what love and devotion for each other..is there another color jersey other than green for a deep,great f-ckin team mate?
really beautiful to watch

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Cyclingnews preview has an odd line: “To give one example, Jumbo-Visma were rumoured on Tuesday morning to be expecting Primož Roglič to lose around 90 seconds to Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates). That was notwithstanding Roglič’s crashes and injuries.” Is this really implying Roglic was expecting to lose 90 seconds to Pogacar before he crashed? That cannot be correct.

 

[Rackham]

Cyclingnews preview has an odd line: “To give one example, Jumbo-Visma were rumoured on Tuesday morning to be expecting Primož Roglič to lose around 90 seconds to Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates). That was notwithstanding Roglič’s crashes and injuries.” Is this really implying Roglic was expecting to lose 90 seconds to Pogacar before he crashed? That cannot be correct.

Richard Plugge had said in January they expected to lose time to Pogacar in the TT, so it wouldn't surprise me.

If that was the case (i.e. that they still believed they'd drop a load of time even before the crash), then a roadmap to victory for Roglic would rely on some sort of tactical plan in the mountains. That will have probably gone out the window now as well.

This Tour might have gone from hopeful, to desperate, to sh*t for Roglic in a matter of days.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

If they thought he’d lose 90 seconds in this TT, I can’t imagine how they thought he’d win this Tour.

 

[Random Direction]

Does anyone know if Thomas had an anterior or posterior dislocation? If the latter I have no clue how he'll be able to be comfortable staying in a TT position.

 

[Googolplex]

Was that not a 3 second rule stage? There doesn't look to be 3 seconds from Kragh to his group.

3 second rule applies only to the largest group. That was not the lead group.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

If they thought he’d lose 90 seconds in this TT, I can’t imagine how they thought he’d win this Tour.

That explains why they let Van Aert go rogue.

 

[yaco]

I will be surprised if Alaphalippe is not in the yellow - His ITT's this season have been a high standard.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Cyclingnews preview has an odd line: “To give one example, Jumbo-Visma were rumoured on Tuesday morning to be expecting Primož Roglič to lose around 90 seconds to Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates). That was notwithstanding Roglič’s crashes and injuries.” Is this really implying Roglic was expecting to lose 90 seconds to Pogacar before he crashed? That cannot be correct.

Right. This has to be incorrect.

Roglic lost 36 seconds to Pogacar on the flat and false flat part of the Planche des Belles Filles time trial. This time trial is a bit shorter (27.2 vs 30.3km) than that part of de PdBF TT

So it has to be with his injuries in mind.

 

[Rackham]

If they thought he’d lose 90 seconds in this TT, I can’t imagine how they thought he’d win this Tour.

The same way they won Basque Country, I suppose.

Last week I heard on RMC (French channel) one of their journalists said Roglic during training for the Tour was dropped off by his team car in the Alps (whilst the Tour de Suisse was on) & did a 60km solo effort in the mountains. I'm just speculating here, but it wouldn't surprise me if the "grand plan" in week 3 involved blowing the race up in the Pyrenees. To us that might sound desperate, but in a crazy "logic" sort of way it's really the only thing that has ever worked against Pogacar (isolate him).

It goes hand-in-hand with what Merijn Zeeman also said a few weeks back, i.e. JV need to prevent this Tour from being a straight mano à mano between Roglic & Pogacar.

 

[Rackham]

Right. This has to be incorrect.

Roglic lost 36 seconds to Pogacar on the flat and false flat part of the Planche des Belles Filles time trial. This time trial is a bit shorter (27.2 vs 30.3km) than that part of de PdBF TT

So it has to be with his injuries in mind.

You've got a point, but the caveat here is JV cannot put a numerical value on the current form of Roglic, or "guess" how much time he will lose today when they don't know how much power he can put on the pedals.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Guys like Bissegger, Van Aert and Kung are surely favourites. I'm expecting Pogacar to do a very good TT, probably top5 or close to it (30-40s behind the winner). But how will other GC contenders fare compared to him? That's a good question. IMO Primoz will ride a good TT for his state (losing a small amount of time to Pog but it's loss nevertheless). No idea how Thomas will fare in the TT with his shoulder, could be too uncomfortable for him. Carapaz will have to limit his losses as well - it's a very important day for him given that climbing is his strong side.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

You've got a point, but the caveat here is JV cannot put a numerical value on the current form of Roglic, or "guess" how much time he will lose today when they don't know how much power he can put on the pedals.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. The alternative (if the so-called rumor is true) makes even less sense. Could be that they expected Roglic to peak in week 3, but he would never lose 90 seconds here if healthy. Undercooked, or not.

 

[Eclipse]

Interested to see how Lutsenko goes here. Still looks to be carrying decent enough post Dauphine form and obviously rode a super TT there (even if it was a bit shorter).

Today should give us a lot of info as to how the weekend is likely to shape up and how the rest of the race will go. Looking forward to it!

 

[Eeslliw]

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. The alternative (if the so-called rumor is true) makes even less sense. Could be that they expected Roglic to peak in week 3, but he would never lose 90 seconds here if healthy. Undercooked, or not.

That 90 seconds deficit to Pogacar on TT was media stunt to put pressure on Tadej after last year PdBF TT.

No way they actually think that. If Pogacar would put 1:30 on healthy Roglic on flat TT on stage 5, clinic part of forum would explode.

 

[Earns1985]

My prediction is that Pogacar will be the best of the real GC contenders today..

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I can't separate between Van Aert, Küng and Bissegger. It's anyone's guess. I expect Pogacar and, despite their injuries, Thomas and Roglic to be the best GC contenders. Uran and Kelderman should do very well also. Porte as well. And Alaphilippe, of course, if he's to be considered a GC contender. Which he probably is.

 

[Volderke]

3 second rule applies only to the largest group. That was not the lead group.

I reckon that WvA got the same time because Ewan and Sagan crashed in the last 200 meters.
Van Aert didn't even make contact with the front group, he was still overtaking riders that took it easy in the final stretch to the finish.
But the crash of Ewan could have resulted in everybody in that group getting the same time.

 

[spalco]

Thomas after Giro crash was able to get 2nd place in the ITT, just 1/2 days before abandoning the race. We'll see tomorrow

Right.

Roglic might well squeak out a really good TT today, the form isn't gone instantly after a crash and he's just technically so strong in TTs. I would worry more about the coming days.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

3 second rule applies only to the largest group. That was not the lead group.

You're right, thanks for that. The UCI press release about it even gave an example of a reasonable sized first group with a bigger group third.

I share your mystification.