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Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 8: Oyonnax – Le Grand-Bornand, 150.8 km

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This is the outcome I expected today. But...

Yeah, TP was dominant, but both TJV and Ineos were fatally crippled by Stage 4, and neither had a credible plan B (whether Ineos had a credible Plan A is another story...). I didn't see anything from Roglic before the Tour that would indicate he was much below Pogacar's level, and we'll never really know about Thomas.
 
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I think the better explanation is that he was sent to the wrong GT. Tour with 60 km of TT, explosive uphill finishes in the first week, lots of flat stages and the usual hectic racing is a recipe for disaster for him.

Yeah, when it comes to the route it doesnt suit very much this first week. He is also the type of rider that gets better as the race progresses and mountains get higher and higher. No he has lost way to much to be a factor at all though. Maybe stage-hunt. KOM jersey if he finds form later in the race.

He also couldnt be sent to the Giro for example with almost no racing and starting late because of his injury in the Giro last year. They "had" to put him in here.
 
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This is the outcome I expected today. But...

Yeah, TP was dominant, but both TJV and Ineos were fatally crippled by Stage 4, and neither had a credible plan B (whether Ineos had a credible Plan A is another story...). I didn't see anything from Roglic before the Tour that would indicate he was much below Pogacar's level, and we'll never really know about Thomas.

Carapaz and co lost over 3 minutes today to Pog. Do you think Thomas would have chances to stay with him today? Lol. I agree that Primoz would be closer - he was the only guy who could give Pog a run for his money at this Tour. Then again, today's performance was amazing like PDBF, I don't think even Primoz would have matched Pog today.
 
Primoz would’ve likely finished with the rest of the contenders (the group with Carapaz, Mas, Uran).

Roglic has never dominated in the mountains. He responds and breaks away with 500 meters. He hasn’t been very aggressive since he started winning GTs. I don’t remember much about the 2019 Vuelta, but in the Giro that year as well as the 2020 Tour and Vuelta he was usually with the favorites, and relied on his TT to gap the rest of them; or ride everyone except Carapaz or Pogacar off his wheel.
 
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what are you on mate? there are no 5 guys

I am indeed referring to last year's JV (as stated by another poster above). Clearly current year Jumbo Visma is a disaster compared to last year so using this year's JV as a benchmark is a moot point.

But put Jumbo Visma from the Grand Colombier 2020 (or the Col de la Loze) in today's stage + Primoz Roglic in top form & "maybe" things would have been more under control for the favorites group, instead of seeing these guys without teammates all scattered along the road riding by themselves against Pogacar (i.e. everyone got massacred because neither Ineos nor JV had a team to fight him today).
 
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This was a groupetto of selfclaimed GC riders in that group behind Pogacar today. Keldermann, Mas, Gaudu,.... all just cruising together to the finish line. Seemingly more concerned of making the time limit than attacking eachother and losing as little time as possible. Useless bunch of riders, the guys in the real groupetto at least usally can do smth else on their bike like sprinting, nothern classics or TT. I would recommend the likes of Mas and Keldermann go to the Tour of Hungary or Turkey next year to show what Champions they are.
 
Ya, what would likely have happened is that when or if Pogacar attacked like that, Roglic would have been on his wheel and not distanced as easily as Carapaz of the rest did. At this point, they either work together or they stare at each other until the others catch up. Pogacar doesn't come close to breaking Roglic like he did to the others there.
Oh c'mon, no way Roglic is hanging with Pog today. Wait til we see the climbing times, going to be thermonuclear
 
Primoz would’ve likely finished with the rest of the contenders (the group with Carapaz, Mas, Uran).

Roglic has never dominated in the mountains. He responds and breaks away with 500 meters. He hasn’t been very aggressive since he started winning GTs. I don’t remember much about the 2019 Vuelta, but in the Giro that year as well as the 2020 Tour and Vuelta he was usually with the favorites, and relied on his TT to gap the rest of them; or ride everyone except Carapaz or Pogacar off his wheel.
What i remember about the 19 Vuelta is from Rog's POV it ended just in time cuz Pog was coming on like gangbusters.
He probably would have won it if it wasn't his first GT and they came in without expectations