Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 10 (Morzine Les Portes du Soleil – Megève, 148.1k)

[Poursuivant]

Break win. I’ll go Bettiol.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Maybe they should just have made this a totally flat stage instead. At least Van Aert wouldn't have been able to win it then.

I hope we'll see some interesting riders in the break. Astana has to show something at some point, but Lutsenko has made the mistake of being too close on GC, and their other riders don't look capable of winning.

Cort might try again on this one.

 

[titan31]

Might actually be one of the worst routes you can design in that area.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Selection Tuesday. Pog has a lot of pride and spirit and will not let his rivals, nor anyone else probably, take that last hill in front of him. This will be the first serious test for the yellow in Paris. If G, Yates, Pidders, or even Bardet are serious, they'll need to be there at the end. There are going to be a lot of monster gaps at the end of the day.

My prediction: Pog hammers at the end to try to win the stage, but Vigo stays with him and pips him by 5 seconds.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Might actually be one of the worst routes you can design in that area.

It definitely is. If the coming two days weren't as hard, I'd be furious to make such an abomination of a stage, but its somewhat understandable considering what we have in sight. Not much would probably have happened anyways, and now we at least know that it will be a breakaway stage where nothing much happens in the GC. And if something happens, then its just a positive surprise.

 

[Cookster15]

Not much in the profile to get excited about. It comes back to the riders. The big boys will save themselves for tomorrow when we find out about who copes best with altitude.

 

[Big Doopie]

Break win. I’ll go Bettiol.

absolutely, and Powless leading the chase with Pog in his wheel.

 

[The Barb]

Boring stage for GC. Interesting stage for the breakaway.

I'm torn on the type of rider this will suit. When Kamna won on this final climb at the 2020 Dauphine he rode away from a really strong group of climbers with 4km to go, which would suggest the Bettiol, Matthews type riders might find it a bit too tough. On the other hand, that stage was a lot harder before the final climb than this one.

Assuming it is tough enough, Nick Schultz was pretty impressive on Stage 9. I hope he can get into the break.

 

[movingtarget]

The break gets another opportunity.............you can only hope..........

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Jackobsen ftw..

 

[Bonimenier]

Kamna wins, Jungels takes yellow.

 

[joe_papp]

Kamna wins, Jungels takes yellow.

Why is Kamna such a big favorite for tomorrow? After Pogacar, he's the #1 favorite for the stage win (based on current odds from several major US sportsbooks)!

[I added him to my fantasy team before the 9th stage but he really didn't come through. But, I'm leaving him on my roster since everyone seems to think he's going to do so well on stage 10.)

 

[The Barb]

Why is Kamna such a big favorite for tomorrow? After Pogacar, he's the #1 favorite for the stage win (based on current odds from several major US sportsbooks)!

[I added him to my fantasy team before the 9th stage but he really didn't come through. But, I'm leaving him on my roster since everyone seems to think he's going to do so well on stage 10.)

Kamna must be the leading breakaway chance based on how he smashed this final climb two years ago and seems to be holding his form remarkably well for someone who rode a pretty hard Giro.

I run a pretty basic formula to consider a breakaway rider's chance of winning:

Chance of rider making the break x chance of breakaway succeeding x chance of rider wining from the break

For Kamna I place those numbers something like:

0.5 (can't really be higher than that given it doesn't start on a climb and his team has multiple riders trying for the break).
0.9 (about as high as it gets)
0.2 (this is hard to assess but I couldn't put it higher than this given how closely marked he will be and the chance of attacks before the final climb)

This places his chance of winning at 9%, meaning his true market price should be about $11 or 10-1. As we know, he considerably shorter than that, so he won't be taking any of my money.

 

[Cookster15]

Break to take this. If Kamna is in similar form to the Giro then he might be a good pick? The GC guys will be saving their powder for the following two mega climbing days in the high mountains.

 

[Scarponi]

The Basil Poledouris score for Conan the Barbarian is never annoying! It's totally Epic.

Also, just take a look at how long that stage was, i.e. unreal by modern standards:

1	ULLRICH Jan	Team Telekom		100		7:46:06
2	PANTANI Marco	Mercatone Uno		70		1:08
3	VIRENQUE Richard	Festina - Lotus		50		,,

Almost 8 hours oh my god

 

[Bonimenier]

Why is Kamna such a big favorite for tomorrow? After Pogacar, he's the #1 favorite for the stage win (based on current odds from several major US sportsbooks)!

[I added him to my fantasy team before the 9th stage but he really didn't come through. But, I'm leaving him on my roster since everyone seems to think he's going to do so well on stage 10.)

Kamna is probably the best mountain breakaway rider in pro cycling right now. His successrate is quite high. He might be good enough to go for GC, but opts not to and loses time on purpose to be allowed in these breakaways.

His odds are probably too short though mainly because the stage doesn't start on a tough climb as stated above by The Barb.

 

[Cookster15]

Kamna is probably the best mountain breakaway rider in pro cycling right now. His successrate is quite high. He might be good enough to go for GC, but opts not to and loses time on purpose to be allowed in these breakaways.

His odds are probably too short though mainly because the stage doesn't start on a tough climb as stated above by The Barb.

Yes, I couldn’t help but notice what happened in the race deciding stage 20 of this year’s Giro. Kamna got into the break. Dropped back to give Hindley a wheel in the final 3km which is what cracked Carapaz. But rather than drop off after perfectly executing the plan Kamna was too strong for Carapaz to follow to the finish. Crazy strong rider!

 

[tobydawq]

There's ~56 km from Morzine to Megève, so they could have made this an ITT. Just saying.

You want more than 100 ITT kilometres???

 

[rghysens]

There's ~56 km from Morzine to Megève, so they could have made this an ITT. Just saying.

That would be more mountainous than this stage.

 

[Rackham]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546753122537803782

 

[BR2]

The stage is too easy for Kämna, I think. I don't expect him to do much here.

 

[Miha81]

Might actually be one of the worst routes you can design in that area.

I agree but I think Wednesday and Thursday routes are meant for GC battle. I guess today's stage was always meant as intro to the high mountains. It is not classified as mountain stage on official TDF page.

 

[saganftw]

wooohooooo who is pumped up for this stage?

nobody...nobody is pumped up

 

[Bolder]

On paper this is a mid-mountain stage, but the climb to the altiport is long enough so that someone having an off day will lose time.

 

[search]

wooohooooo who is pumped up for this stage?

nobody...nobody is pumped up

from a Pidcock interview in the Yorkshire Post today - to create a bit of a hype at least

“If it gets hectic I could try and slip up the road and cause a bit of chaos,” he said of his plans for stage 10. “There’s a lot of mountains to come, it’s a long time suffering up those mountains. We’ve just been saying in the team meeting, you need to enjoy the suffering.”

Not that UAE is likely to allow that, though - even if he probably won't really contest GC anyway in the end.